Are probabilities overweighted or underweighted when rare outcomes are experienced (rarely)?

When making decisions involving risky outcomes on the basis of verbal descriptions of the outcomes and their associated probabilities, people behave as if they overweight small probabilities. In contrast, when the same outcomes are instead experienced in a series of samples, people behave as if they underweight small probabilities. We present two experiments showing that the existing explanations of the underweighting observed in decisions from experience are not sufficient to account for the effect. Underweighting was observed when participants experienced representative samples of events, so it cannot be attributed to undersampling of the small probabilities. In addition, earlier samples predicted decisions just as well as later samples did, so underweighting cannot be attributed to recency weighting. Finally, frequency judgments were accurate, so underweighting cannot be attributed to judgment error. Furthermore, we show that the underweighting of small probabilities is also reflected in the best-fitting parameter values obtained when prospect theory, the dominant model of risky choice, is applied to the data

National survey of the prevalence, incidence, primary care burden, and treatment of heart failure in Scotland

Objective: To examine the epidemiology, primary care burden, and treatment of heart failure in Scotland, UK. Design: Cross sectional data from primary care practices participating in the Scottish continuous morbidity recording scheme between 1 April 1999 and 31 March 2000. Setting: 53 primary care practices (307 741 patients). Subjects: 2186 adult patients with heart failure. Results: The prevalence of heart failure in Scotland was 7.1 in 1000, increasing with age to 90.1 in 1000 among patients 85 years. The incidence of heart failure was 2.0 in 1000, increasing with age to 22.4 in 1000 among patients 85 years. For older patients, consultation rates for heart failure equalled or exceeded those for angina and hypertension. Respiratory tract infection was the most common co-morbidity leading to consultation. Among men, 23% were prescribed a ß blocker, 11% spironolactone, and 46% an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor. The corresponding figures for women were 20% (p = 0.29 versus men), 7% (p = 0.02), and 34% (p < 0.001). Among patients < 75 years 26% were prescribed a β blocker, 11% spironolactone, and 50% an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor. The corresponding figures for patients 75 years were 19% (p = 0.04 versus patients < 75), 7% (p = 0.04), and 33% (p < 0.001). Conclusions: Heart failure is a common condition, especially with advancing age. In the elderly, the community burden of heart failure is at least as great as that of angina or hypertension. The high rate of concomitant respiratory tract infection emphasises the need for strategies to immunise patients with heart failure against influenza and pneumococcal infection. Drugs proven to improve survival in heart failure are used less frequently for elderly patients and women

Analysing passengers' behaviours when boarding trains to improve rail infrastructure and technology

Concentrated boarding describes the phenomenon when rail passengers congregate in certain areas of the platform and board the train carriages that stop near these areas. This influences the distribution of passengers throughout the carriages, which can negatively affect passenger comfort, safety at the platform-train interface, efficiency of the rail network, and the reputation of rail travel as a whole. This project aimed to determine whether concentrated boarding occurs in stations in the UK in order to understand its relevance for future rolling stock, infrastructure design and its associated manufacturing research. Video recording technology was used to observe the movements of passengers in Oxford Station and data was collected for nine individual trains. By reviewing the recordings, the number of passengers boarding through each door of the trains was determined, and the boarding distribution along the length of the platform was plotted. Several reasons for noted trends are offered, and potential solutions proposed. The use of real time information could be invaluable to minimise concentrated boarding, as it would allow passengers to make informed decisions as to where they could board trains to have a better journey experience. These findings indicate the relevance of a human-centred design process, particularly the user research stages, in the process of defining priorities for manufacturing and engineering

DC Josephson Effect in SNS Junctions of Anisotropic Superconductors

A formula for the Josephson current between two superconductors with anisotropic pairing symmetries is derived based on the mean-field theory of superconductivity. Zero-energy states formed at the junction interfaces is one of basic phenomena in anisotropic superconductor junctions. In the obtained formula, effects of the zero-energy states on the Josephson current are taken into account through the Andreev reflection coefficients of a quasiparticle. In low temperature regimes, the formula can describe an anomaly in the Josephson current which is a direct consequence of the exsitence of zero-energy states. It is possible to apply the formula to junctions consist of superconductors with spin-singlet Cooper pairs and those with spin-triplet Cooper pairs

An estimate of the flavour singlet contributions to the hyperfine splitting in charmonium

We explore the splitting between flavour singlet and non-singlet mesons in charmonium. This has implications for the hyperfine splitting in charmonium

Inflation, cold dark matter, and the central density problem

A problem with high central densities in dark halos has arisen in the context of LCDM cosmologies with scale-invariant initial power spectra. Although n=1 is often justified by appealing to the inflation scenario, inflationary models with mild deviations from scale-invariance are not uncommon and models with significant running of the spectral index are plausible. Even mild deviations from scale-invariance can be important because halo collapse times and densities depend on the relative amount of small-scale power. We choose several popular models of inflation and work out the ramifications for galaxy central densities. For each model, we calculate its COBE-normalized power spectrum and deduce the implied halo densities using a semi-analytic method calibrated against N-body simulations. We compare our predictions to a sample of dark matter-dominated galaxies using a non-parametric measure of the density. While standard n=1, LCDM halos are overdense by a factor of 6, several of our example inflation+CDM models predict halo densities well within the range preferred by observations. We also show how the presence of massive (0.5 eV) neutrinos may help to alleviate the central density problem even with n=1. We conclude that galaxy central densities may not be as problematic for the CDM paradigm as is sometimes assumed: rather than telling us something about the nature of the dark matter, galaxy rotation curves may be telling us something about inflation and/or neutrinos. An important test of this idea will be an eventual consensus on the value of sigma_8, the rms overdensity on the scale 8 h^-1 Mpc. Our successful models have values of sigma_8 approximately 0.75, which is within the range of recent determinations. Finally, models with n>1 (or sigma_8 > 1) are highly disfavored.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures. Minor changes made to reflect referee's Comments, error in Eq. (18) corrected, references updated and corrected, conclusions unchanged. Version accepted for publication in Phys. Rev. D, scheduled for 15 August 200

Adjoint "quarks" on coarse anisotropic lattices: Implications for string breaking in full QCD

A detailed study is made of four dimensional SU(2) gauge theory with static adjoint ``quarks'' in the context of string breaking. A tadpole-improved action is used to do simulations on lattices with coarse spatial spacings $a_s$, allowing the static potential to be probed at large separations at a dramatically reduced computational cost. Highly anisotropic lattices are used, with fine temporal spacings $a_t$, in order to assess the behavior of the time-dependent effective potentials. The lattice spacings are determined from the potentials for quarks in the fundamental representation. Simulations of the Wilson loop in the adjoint representation are done, and the energies of magnetic and electric ``gluelumps'' (adjoint quark-gluon bound states) are calculated, which set the energy scale for string breaking. Correlators of gauge-fixed static quark propagators, without a connecting string of spatial links, are analyzed. Correlation functions of gluelump pairs are also considered; similar correlators have recently been proposed for observing string breaking in full QCD and other models. A thorough discussion of the relevance of Wilson loops over other operators for studies of string breaking is presented, using the simulation results presented here to support a number of new arguments.Comment: 22 pages, 14 figure

What Can WMAP Tell Us About The Very Early Universe? New Physics as an Explanation of Suppressed Large Scale Power and Running Spectral Index

The Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe microwave background data may be giving us clues about new physics at the transition from a ``stringy'' epoch of the universe to the standard Friedmann Robertson Walker description. Deviations on large angular scales of the data, as compared to theoretical expectations, as well as running of the spectral index of density perturbations, can be explained by new physics whose scale is set by the height of an inflationary potential. As examples of possible signatures for this new physics, we study the cosmic microwave background spectrum for two string inspired models: 1) modifications to the Friedmann equations and 2) velocity dependent potentials. The suppression of low ``l'' modes in the microwave background data arises due to the new physics. In addition, the spectral index is red (n<1) on small scales and blue (n>1) on large scales, in agreement with data.Comment: 18 pages, 2 figures, submitted for publication in Physical Review D, references added in this versio

Primeval Corrections to the CMB Anisotropies

We show that deviations of the quantum state of the inflaton from the thermal vacuum of inflation may leave an imprint in the CMB anisotropies. The quantum dynamics of the inflaton in such a state produces corrections to the inflationary fluctuations, which may be observable. Because these effects originate from IR physics below the Planck scale, they will dominate over any trans-Planckian imprints in any theory which obeys decoupling. Inflation sweeps away these initial deviations and forces its quantum state closer to the thermal vacuum. We view this as the quantum version of the cosmic no-hair theorem. Such imprints in the CMB may be a useful, independent test of the duration of inflation, or of significant features in the inflaton potential about 60 e-folds before inflation ended, instead of an unlikely discovery of the signatures of quantum gravity. The absence of any such substructure would suggest that inflation lasted uninterrupted much longer than ${\cal O}(100)$ e-folds.Comment: 17 pages, latex, no figures; v3: added references and comments, final version to appear in Phys. Rev.

Structure of Fat Jets at the Tevatron and Beyond

Boosted resonances is a highly probable and enthusiastic scenario in any process probing the electroweak scale. Such objects when decaying into jets can easily blend with the cornucopia of jets from hard relative light QCD states. We review jet observables and algorithms that can contribute to the identification of highly boosted heavy jets and the possible searches that can make use of such substructure information. We also review previous studies by CDF on boosted jets and its measurements on specific jet shapes.Comment: invited review for a special "Top and flavour physics in the LHC era" issue of The European Physical Journal C, we invite comments regarding contents of the review; v2 added references and institutional preprint number