Breaching the Great Firewall: China’s Internet Censorship and the Quest for Freedom of Expression in a Connected World

In the final days of 2005, Microsoft Corporation made international headlines when it removed the site of a Beijing researcher from its blog hosting service. Soon, other instances of U.S. companies assisting in China’s internet censorship emerged. These revelations generated outrage among commentators and legislators and led to calls for action. This Note examines the methods of internet censorship employed by China and other nations, and explores the assistance that U.S. companies have provided to these nations. It analyzes the liability issues facing these companies in light of existing case law and statutory solutions proposed in the U.S. Congress. It then proposes a novel combination of existing legislative proposals, recommendations from the Electronic Frontier Foundation, and international cooperation as the best way to address the problem of internet censorship

Hans Off!: The Struggle for Hans Island and the Potential Ramifications for International Border Disupute Resolution

As global warming continues to warm the Arctic seas, more of the Arctic is free of ice for longer periods. The possibilities for exploitation of natural resources and for control over Northern shipping lanes have prompted countries’ renewed interest in their competing claims to the region. Recently, Denmark and Canada have clashed over their competing claims to a small, uninhabitable rock known as Hans Island. While this island may not seem significant, the eventual resolution of this border dispute may have widespread ramifications for the resolution of international conflicts in other remote, uninhabited areas. This Note examines the International Court of Justice decisions in a number of border dis-pute cases, applies that jurisprudence to the Hans Island facts, and urges both parties to reach an equitable solution

Hierarchical analysis of gravitational-wave measurements of binary black hole spin-orbit misalignments

Binary black holes may form both through isolated binary evolution and through dynamical interactions in dense stellar environments. The formation channel leaves an imprint on the alignment between the black hole spins and the orbital angular momentum. Gravitational waves from these systems directly encode information about the spin--orbit misalignment angles, allowing them to be (weakly) constrained. Identifying sub-populations of spinning binary black holes will inform us about compact binary formation and evolution. We simulate a mixed population of binary black holes with spin--orbit misalignments modelled under a range of assumptions. We then develop a hierarchical analysis and apply it to mock gravitational-wave observations of these populations. Assuming a population with dimensionless spin magnitudes of $\chi = 0.7$, we show that tens of observations will make it possible to distinguish the presence of subpopulations of coalescing binary black holes based on their spin orientations. With $100$ observations it will be possible to infer the relative fraction of coalescing binary black holes with isotropic spin directions (corresponding to dynamical formation in our models) with a fractional uncertainty of $\sim 40\%$. Meanwhile, only $\sim 5$ observations are sufficient to distinguish between extreme models---all binary black holes either having exactly aligned spins or isotropic spin directions.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures. Updated to match version published in MNRAS as 10.1093/mnras/stx176

Seattle Surveillance Ordinance Memo

https://digitalcommons.law.uw.edu/techclinic/1002/thumbnail.jp

A microsimulation study of the benefits and costs of screening for colorectal cancer

This thesis examines the benefits and costs of screening for colorectal cancer in the context of an organised population screening programme. It uses microsimulation modelling to derive an optimally cost-effective screening protocol for various combinations of the available screening tests. ¶ First a mathematical model for the natural history of colorectal cancer is derived, based on analyses of Australian population and hospital-based cancer registries combined with data from published studies. Then a model for population based screening is derived based mainly on data from published screening studies, including the four major published randomised controlled trials of faecal occult blood test (FOBT) screening. These two models are used to simulate the application of a screening programme to the Australian population. The simulations are applied to a period of 40 years following 1990 (the study’s base year), with both costs and benefits discounted back to the base year at an annual rate of 3%. ¶ ..

In Memory of the Life of Niko Haoa: An Outsider's Perspective

As an outsider to the culture of Rapa Nui and a fleeting visitor in the life of Nico Haoa, I can only comment on the intermittent but influential experiences we shared over the last 23 years. My first connection with Nico and his wife Rosita came in 1980. Nico was low-key, and really I must say with some embarrassment that I have a hard time formulating a memory of him at that time. My interaction mainly was with Rosita, who insisted that the noisy motorcycle be left out on the street. That irritated me no end. During that year, there was an invasion of elderly (30+ years) graduate students and faculty that included Georgia Lee, Joan Seaver Kurze, Jo Anne Van Tilburg, George Gill, myself, and a few others, all who gravitated toward Rosita's residencia, as it was then known. It was a pioneering business; a little bit of (slightly western) heaven that permitted an escape from a cultural setting we were unprepared to deal with. The tourist trade was just beginning in those years, and Nico gradually built room after room and catered to the foreigners who were fascinated with the myths of Rapa Nui. In retrospect, it was clearly the right choice, as Hotel 'Otai is the premier place to stay on Rapa Nui.</p

Structural collapse in kaolinite, montmorillonite and illite clay and its role in the ceramic rehydroxylation dating of low-fired earthenware

The rehydroxylation dating of ancient pottery estimates the age of ceramic manufacture based upon the total hydroxyl (OH) accumulation since initial firing. The diffusion of OH is impacted by the structural porosity of the ceramic that becomes progressively, or suddenly, closed with increasing temperature as the clay structure collapses. Changes in ceramic mineral structure along the temperature continuum occur at certain thermal set points. Infrared spectroscopic analysis of heat-treated kaolin, illite, and montmorillonite reveals that shifts in the Si-O band correlate with the extent of structural collapse occurring between 600 and 1000 degrees C. Accelerated rehydroxylation experiments reveal that the activation energy of rehydroxylation decreases with greater structural collapse and indicates that the rate of rehydroxylation will be faster for ceramics fired at more elevated temperatures. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Algorithmic Risk Assessments and the Double-Edged Sword of Youth

Risk assessment algorithms—statistical formulas that predict the likelihood a person will commit crime in the future—are used across the country to help make life-altering decisions in the criminal process, including setting bail, determining sentences, selecting probation conditions, and deciding parole. Yet many of these instruments are “black-box” tools. The algorithms they use are secret, both to the sentencing authorities who rely on them and to the offender whose life is affected. The opaque nature of these tools raises numerous legal and ethical concerns. In this paper we argue that risk assessment algorithms obfuscate how certain factors, usually considered mitigating by sentencing authorities, can lead to higher risk scores and thus inappropriately inflate sentences. We illustrate this phenomenon through one of its most dramatic manifestations: The role of age in risk assessment algorithms. When considered as a factor at sentencing, youthfulness can be a double-edged sword—it can both enhance risk and diminish blameworthiness. If either risk or culpability is the sole issue at sentencing, this potential conflict is avoided. But when, as is often the case, both risk and culpability are considered relevant to the sentence, the aggravating effect of youth should presumably be offset or perhaps eliminated entirely by its mitigating impact. If judges and parole authorities are fully informed of the conflicting roles youth plays in a particular case, they can engage in this balancing act as appropriate. However, when information about risk comes from a black-box algorithm, they are unlikely to know the extent to which the risk evaluation is influenced by the defendant’s youthfulness. In such cases, their decisions about pretrial detention, sentence, or release may unknowingly give youth too much weight as an aggravator. Further, even if the black box is opened and the risk assessment algorithm is made publicly available, the risk score may not be conveyed in a fully transparent manner. For instance, while judges may be told that an offender’s youth is a risk factor, the relative weight of age in the overall score may not be fully explained or understood at the time of decision-making. Unless the judge makes specific inquiries, she will not be informed of the variables that contributed most heavily to a particular defendant’s risk score. This decisional blindness is especially pernicious in light of the impression created by the labels associated with these instruments—“high risk” or “high risk of violence.” Such labels not only convey information about the potential for recidivism. They are also suggestive of bad character, or at least a history of bad decision-making. In other words, these labels convey condemnation. Such condemnation might be appropriate for an individual who has earned the “high-risk” classification by committing multiple violent or ruthless acts. But it is not warranted for an individual who has earned that label largely because of his or her youth. To ensure sentencers take this double-edged sword problem into account, risk assessment algorithms should be transparent about the factors that most heavily influence the score. Only in that way can courts and legislators engage in an explicit discussion about whether, and to what extent, young age should be considered a mitigator or an aggravator in fashioning criminal punishment. In Part I, we discuss the tensions youthfulness generates in the post-conviction setting by introducing the double-edge sword phenomenon and the jurisprudence that has developed around it. In Part II, we present empirical evidence that shows how influential age is in the widely-used COMPAS Violent Recidivism Risk Score (VRRS) and in other common risk assessment tools. Specifically, we conduct a partial decomposition of the VRRS to show that age alone can explain almost 60% of its variation, substantially more than the contributions of criminal history, gender or race. Similar patterns are documented in other common risk scores. In Part III, we discuss how obfuscation of age’s impact on the risk score improperly undermines consideration of youthfulness as a mitigating factor. We also discuss how the points we make about the role of youth might apply to a number of other factors that are often used in structured risk assessments, including mental illness, substance abuse, and socio-economic factors. While our discussion centers on sentencing, the main argument is generally relevant to a broad range of settings in which risk assessments influence criminal justice outcomes

Age at quitting smoking as a predictor of risk of cardiovascular disease incidence independent of smoking status, time since quitting and pack-years

BACKGROUND Risk prediction for CVD events has been shown to vary according to current smoking status, pack-years smoked over a lifetime, time since quitting and age at quitting. The latter two are closely and inversely related. It is not known whether the age at which one quits smoking is an additional important predictor of CVD events. The aim of this study was to determine whether the risk of CVD events varied according to age at quitting after taking into account current smoking status, lifetime pack-years smoked and time since quitting. FINDINGS We used the Cox proportional hazards model to evaluate the risk of developing a first CVD event for a cohort of participants in the Framingham Offspring Heart Study who attended the fourth examination between ages 30 and 74 years and were free of CVD. Those who quit before the median age of 37 years had a risk of CVD incidence similar to those who were never smokers. The incorporation of age at quitting in the smoking variable resulted in better prediction than the model which had a simple current smoker/non-smoker measure and the one that incorporated both time since quitting and pack-years. These models demonstrated good discrimination, calibration and global fit. The risk among those quitting more than 5 years prior to the baseline exam and those whose age at quitting was prior to 44 years was similar to the risk among never smokers. However, the risk among those quitting less than 5 years prior to the baseline exam and those who continued to smoke until 44 years of age (or beyond) was two and a half times higher than that of never smokers. CONCLUSIONS Age at quitting improves the prediction of risk of CVD incidence even after other smoking measures are taken into account. The clinical benefit of adding age at quitting to the model with other smoking measures may be greater than the associated costs. Thus, age at quitting should be considered in addition to smoking status, time since quitting and pack-years when counselling individuals about their cardiovascular risk.This research was supported by an NHMRC health services research grant (no. 465130), an NHMRC/NHF PhD scholarship and a Vichealth Fellowship