A contribution to the study of the influence of the energy of solar wind upon the atmospheric processes

According to the satellite observing of solar wind, and as well according the development of certain weather conditions it is realized that their interactive connections could have important role on the development of atmospheric processes. In this paper is given several of such situations. We have tried to point to a very important significance of new methodological approach in understanding development of meteorological conditions. Researching the influence of the solar wind on the changes of conditions in the atmosphere could develop in several ways but in any case for the further steps a multidiscipline approach is needed. Karen Labitske in Germany has done a lot of research in this area. "The physics is still highly speculative at this point though"

ELECTRONS OR PROTONS: WHAT IS THE CAUSE OF FOREST FIRES IN WESTERN EUROPE ON JUNE 18, 2017?

Forest fires in Portugal (June 17–24, 2017) destroyed 64 lives and caused considerable material damage. The coronal hole CH807 and the energy region S5710 were in the geoeffective position on the Sun immediately before the outbreak of fires. In the period that preceded it, as well as at the time of the fires, increased values of the solar wind (SW) parameters (temperature, speed and density of particles) were recorded. In addition, a geomagnetic disorder was recorded. The shape and size of the burning areas, as well as the low air pressure over Portugal indicate the possibility of the effect of positively charged particles that came from the area south, i.e. southwest of Portugal. Nevertheless, it is a specific case that would have to be investigated in more detail

Astrophysical analysis of earthquake near Kraljevo (Serbia) on 03. november 2010

Results of previous studies have pointed to a statistically significant relationship between the ionospheric, ie. atmospheric disturbances and earthquakes. Also, numerous previous studies concerning the relationship between the sun's activity and disturbances in the atmosphere have been taken into consideration. Based on these indicators, we tried to determine the possible existence of a causative-effective connection between processes on the sun and the earthquake that occurred on 03 November 2010 near Kraljevo (Serbia). Based on theoretical considerations, a new model is proposed that suggests the occurrence of trigger pulse. The results have shown that at statistically more significant number of samples it would be necessary to determine potential regularity in the changes of the parameters of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), that is solar wind components (SW) a few days before and after the occurrence of strong earthquakes

Povezanost između visokoenergetskih čestica sunčevog vetra i tornada - analiza slučaja

The temperature of charged particles coming from the Sun ranges from several hundred thousands to several millions °C, in extreme cases. Theoretical possibilities of the hydrodynamic air mass seizing by charged particles, i. e. solar wind, are discussed in this paper. On one hand, they are characterized by extremely high temperatures, on the other, by the compression of cold air at an approximate altitude of 90 km towards the top of the cloud of the cyclone, they influence the phenomenon of extremely low temperatures. By using the Mann-Whitney U test we have tried to determine the potential link between certain indicators of solar activity and resulting disturbances in the atmosphere. Analyzed data refer to global daily values for the 2004-2010 period. Our results confirm the possibility of coupling between the charged particles and the vortex air mass movements, based on which a more detailed study of the appearance of a tornado near Sombor on May 12th, 2010, was carried out. It has also been proven that there are grounds for a causality between the sudden arrival of the solar wind charged particles, i. e. protons, and the appearance of a tornado. Based on the presented approach, elements for an entirely novel prediction model are given.Temperature visokoenergetskih čestica koje dospevaju sa Sunca kreću se u opsegu od nekoliko stotina do nekoliko miliona stepeni celzijusa. U ovom radu razmatrana je teorijska mogućnost hidrodinamičkog zahvatanja vazdušnih masa sunčevim vetrom (SV), odnosno visokoenergetskim česticama SV. Na jednoj strani, ove čestice karakterišu ekstremno visoke temperature, a na drugoj, one izazivaju kompresiju veoma hladnog vazduha sa visine od oko 90 km ka vrhu ciklona. Upotrebom Man-Vitnijevog U testa, pokušali smo da detektujemo povezanost između određenih pokazatelja sunčeve aktivnosti i poremećaja u atmosferi (korišćeni dnevni podaci na globalnom nivou za period 2004-2010). Dobijeni rezultati potvrđuju mogućnost veze između visokoenergetskih čestica SV i vrtložnog kretanja vazdušnih masa, zbog čega je urađena detaljnija analiza slučaja pojave tornada (trombe) kod Sombora 12. marta 2010. godine. Ovom analizom pokazano je da postoji osnovanost uverenja da iznenadni priliv visokoenergetskih čestica (protona) sunčevog vetra može izazvati pojavu tornada. Na osnovu prikazanog, dati su i elementi za izradu prognostičkog modela

Examination of the correlations between forest fires and solar activity using Hurst index

The aim of this paper is to find the functional dependence between the occurrence of forest fires and the factors inherent to solar activity. It has been shown that the amplitude of number of forest fires in the USA for warm period 2004-2007 is not time dependent. The method of seasonality indices for seasonal components filter was used for the decomposition of time series. In order to test this hypothesis the correlation analysis was held between the factors Hi and the number of fires taking into account time delay (lag) between the onset of fires and solar activity. The results of this analysis show that any correlation coefficient is not higher than 0.2. For determination of the degree of randomness for time series of input and output parameters, the R/S analysis was conducted. The Hurst index was used for determining the depth of their memory. Based on the proximity of the Hurst index for the 10.7 cm solar flux categories and small forest fires, a reasonable assumption can be made that the dynamics of these time series is heavily dependent on the same factors. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III47007

The connection between solar wind charged particles and tornadoes: Case analysis

The temperature of charged particles coming from the Sun ranges from several hundred thousands to several millions °C, in extreme cases. Theoretical possibilities of the hydrodynamic air mass seizing by charged particles, i. e. solar wind, are discussed in this paper. On one hand, they are characterized by extremely high temperatures, on the other, by the compression of cold air at an approximate altitude of 90 km towards the top of the cloud of the cyclone, they influence the phenomenon of extremely low temperatures. By using the Mann-Whitney U test we have tried to determine the potential link between certain indicators of solar activity and resulting disturbances in the atmosphere. Analyzed data refer to global daily values for the 2004-2010 period. Our results confirm the possibility of coupling between the charged particles and the vortex air mass movements, based on which a more detailed study of the appearance of a tornado near Sombor on May 12th, 2010, was carried out. It has also been proven that there are grounds for a causality between the sudden arrival of the solar wind charged particles, i. e. protons, and the appearance of a tornado. Based on the presented approach, elements for an entirely novel prediction model are given. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III47007 i br. 176008

Forest fires in Portugal - case study, 18 june 2017

Forest fires that occurred in Portugal on June 18, 2017, caused several tens of human casualties. The cause of their emergence, as well as many others that occurred in western Europe at the same time remained unknown. Taking into account consequences, including loss of human lives and endangerment of ecosystem sustainability, discovering of the forest fires causes is the very significant question. The heliocentric hypothesis has indirectly been tested, according to which charged particles are a possible cause of forest fires. We must point out that it was not possible to verify whether in this specific case the particles by reaching the ground and burning the plant mass create the initial phase of the formation of the flame. Therefore, we have tried to determine whether during the critical period, i. e. from June 15-19 there is a certain statistical connection between certain parameters of the solar wind and meteorological elements. Based on the hourly values of the charged particles flow, a correlation analysis was performed with hourly values of individual meteorological elements including time lag at Monte Real station. The application of the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System models has shown that there is a high degree of connection between the flow of protons and the analyzed meteorological elements in Portugal. However, further verification of this hypothesis requires further laboratory testing

Forest fires in Portugal - Case study, 18 June 2017

Forest fires that occurred in Portugal on 18 June 2017 caused several tens of human casualties. The cause of their emergence, as well as many others that occurred in Western Europe at the same time remained unknown. Taking into account consequences, including loss of human lives and endangerment of ecosystem sustainability, discovering of the forest fires causes is the very significant question. The heliocentric hypothesis has indirectly been tested, according to which charged particles are a possible cause of forest fires. We must point out that it was not possible to verify whether in this specific case the particles by reaching the ground and burning the plant mass create the initial phase of the formation of the flame. Therefore, we have tried to determine whether during the critical period, i.e. from 15-19 June there is a certain statistical connection between certain parameters of the solar wind and meteorological elements. Based on the hourly values of the charged particles flow, a correlation analysis was performed with hourly values of individual meteorological elements including time lag at Monte Real station. The application of the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System models has shown that there is a high degree of connection between the flow of protons and the analysed meteorological elements in Portugal. However, further verification of this hypothesis requires further laboratory testing. © 2018 Serbian Society of Heat Transfer Engineers.This work was supported by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia (project III 47007), Tomsk Polytechnic University (project No.14.Z50.31.0029 (19.03.2014)) and Russian Institute for Advanced Study, Moscow State Pedagogical University (MPSU Postdoctoral Fellowships in Humanities 2018)