Purposeful empiricism: how stochastic modeling informs industrial marketing research

It is increasingly recognized that progress can be made in the development of integrated theory for understanding, explaining and better predicting key aspects of buyer–seller relationships and industrial networks by drawing upon non-traditional research perspectives and domains. One such non-traditional research perspective is stochastic modeling which has shown that large scale regularities emerge from the individual interactions between idiosyncratic actors. When these macroscopic patterns repeat across a wide range of firms, industries and business types this commonality suggests directions for further research which we pursue through a differentiated replication of the Dirichlet stochastic model. We demonstrate predictable behavioral patterns of purchase and loyalty in two distinct industrial markets for components used in critical surgical procedures. This differentiated replication supports the argument for the use of stochastic modeling techniques in industrial marketing management, not only as a management tool but also as a lens to inform and focus research towards integrated theories of the evolution of market structure and network relationships

Characteristics of a future aeronautical satellite communications system

A possible operational system scenario for providing satellite communications services to the future aviation community was analyzed. The system concept relies on a Ka-band (20/30 GHz) satellite that utilizes multibeam antenna (MBA) technology. The aircraft terminal uses an extremely small aperture antenna as a result of using this higher spectrum at Ka-band. The satellite functions as a relay between the aircraft and the ground stations. The ground stations function as interfaces to the existing terrestrial networks such as the Public Service Telephone Network (PSTN). Various system tradeoffs are first examined to ensure optimized system parameters. High level performance specifications and design approaches are generated for the space, ground, and aeronautical elements in the system. Both technical and economical issues affecting the feasibility of the studied concept are addressed with the 1995 timeframe in mind

Forecasting new product trial with analogous series

types: ArticleNOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Journal of Business Research. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Journal of Business Research, 2015. doi:10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.032This study develops a simple method for forecasting consumer trial for national product launches. The number of consumers who try a brand in its first year on the market is accurately predicted from the number trying the brand in the first thirteen weeks following launch. No information about the specific category or marketing activities is required– just a simple multiplier computed from analogous series in other markets. These analogues provide an empirical generalization that can be easily applied by practicing managers to track and forecast the success of new brand launches. When subject to an out-of-sample test involving 34 fresh data sets, the analogues demonstrated 43 percent reduction in Mean Absolute Percentage Error compared to the most accurate marketing science model

How to grow a brand: retain or acquire customers?

Journal ArticleWhile customer acquisition is clearly important for new brands, mature brands are often said to rely on defection management for maintenance and growth. Yet the theory to support this approach has been subject to very little empirical investigation. How do brands actually increase the size of their customer base? Through superior acquisition or by reducing customer defection? Or some mixture of both? Conversely, do brands decline through deficient acquisition or excessive defection? This work analyzes changes in ‘first brand loyal’ customers to answer these questions, using a combination of panel data on the prescribing behavior of doctors and a cross-sectional tracking survey for residential finance. This study is the first research to compare defection and acquisition against stochastic benchmarks for customer churn under stationary conditions. The results are surprising: for both growth and decline, unusual acquisition plays a stronger role than unusual defection. This finding demonstrates that acquisition has been under-rated in the past, and implies that prospect management is at least as important as defection reduction. A simulation shows that unusual acquisition also accounts for far more variation in profit than does unusual defection.n/

Properties of the circumgalactic medium in cosmic ray-dominated galaxy haloes

We investigate the impact of cosmic rays (CRs) on the circumgalactic medium (CGM) in FIRE-2 simulations, for ultra-faint dwarf through Milky Way (MW)-mass haloes hosting star-forming (SF) galaxies. Our CR treatment includes injection by supernovae, anisotropic streaming and diffusion along magnetic field lines, and collisional and streaming losses, with constant parallel diffusivity κ∼3×10²⁹ cm² s⁻¹ chosen to match γ-ray observations. With this, CRs become more important at larger halo masses and lower redshifts, and dominate the pressure in the CGM in MW-mass haloes at z ≲ 1–2. The gas in these ‘CR-dominated’ haloes differs significantly from runs without CRs: the gas is primarily cool (a few ∼10⁴), and the cool phase is volume-filling and has a thermal pressure below that needed for virial or local thermal pressure balance. Ionization of the ‘low’ and ‘mid’ ions in this diffuse cool gas is dominated by photoionization, with O VI columns ≳10^(14.5) cm⁻² at distances ≳150kpc⁠. CR and thermal gas pressure are locally anticorrelated, maintaining total pressure balance, and the CGM gas density profile is determined by the balance of CR pressure gradients and gravity. Neglecting CRs, the same haloes are primarily warm/hot (⁠T≳10⁵) with thermal pressure balancing gravity, collisional ionization dominates, O VI columns are lower and Ne VIII higher, and the cool phase is confined to dense filaments in local thermal pressure equilibrium with the hot phase