Purposeful empiricism: how stochastic modeling informs industrial marketing research

It is increasingly recognized that progress can be made in the development of integrated theory for understanding, explaining and better predicting key aspects of buyer–seller relationships and industrial networks by drawing upon non-traditional research perspectives and domains. One such non-traditional research perspective is stochastic modeling which has shown that large scale regularities emerge from the individual interactions between idiosyncratic actors. When these macroscopic patterns repeat across a wide range of firms, industries and business types this commonality suggests directions for further research which we pursue through a differentiated replication of the Dirichlet stochastic model. We demonstrate predictable behavioral patterns of purchase and loyalty in two distinct industrial markets for components used in critical surgical procedures. This differentiated replication supports the argument for the use of stochastic modeling techniques in industrial marketing management, not only as a management tool but also as a lens to inform and focus research towards integrated theories of the evolution of market structure and network relationships

Characteristics of a future aeronautical satellite communications system

A possible operational system scenario for providing satellite communications services to the future aviation community was analyzed. The system concept relies on a Ka-band (20/30 GHz) satellite that utilizes multibeam antenna (MBA) technology. The aircraft terminal uses an extremely small aperture antenna as a result of using this higher spectrum at Ka-band. The satellite functions as a relay between the aircraft and the ground stations. The ground stations function as interfaces to the existing terrestrial networks such as the Public Service Telephone Network (PSTN). Various system tradeoffs are first examined to ensure optimized system parameters. High level performance specifications and design approaches are generated for the space, ground, and aeronautical elements in the system. Both technical and economical issues affecting the feasibility of the studied concept are addressed with the 1995 timeframe in mind

The English East India Company and the Modern Corporation: Legacies, Lessons, and Limitations

The English East India Company was first chartered in 1600, endured until the late nineteenth century, and, in a clever act of corporate resurrection, has even recently returned as a global, upmarket retail outlet selling fine foods and commemorative coins. It has also endured in the popular imagination and culture, churning out heroes and villains alike in film, television, and video games. The script writer for a forthcoming BBC miniseries, in which the East India Company stars as the prime antagonist, even noted recently that the Company was like “the CIA, the NSA, and the biggest, baddest multinational corporation on earth” wrapped into one corporation. All of this attention of late to one of the largest and most enduring corporations of its time, which managed a commercial and political system separated by half a world at upwards of a year and half’s distance, is perhaps unsurprising given the great legal, political, and economic conundrums surrounding the modern multinational corporation, from questions about global management to controversial issues such as tax inversions, monopoly, state-owned corporations, as well as the corporate person’s rights to free speech, religion, and so on. However, from outlandish film productions to the most sober of scholarship, the connections between the Company’s past and our present seem to have become all things to all people, stretched almost to the point of breaking. Though it would be impossible to be exhaustive, this Article nonetheless seeks to outline the various ways in which the East India Company’s legacy has been drawn upon in a range of fields, but especially legal and business scholarship, for a wide range of purposes. In so doing, it proposes that the sheer diversity of uses to which the Company’s history has been put, as well as the lack of any agreement about the meaning and nature of such comparisons, might suggest that the lessons the East India Company can offer to the financial, commercial, and organizational history of the modern corporation, while inherently interesting and heuristically instructive, must necessarily be limited, cautionary, and entertained at one’s own risk

The English East India Company and the Modern Corporation: Legacies, Lessons, and Limitations

The English East India Company was first chartered in 1600, endured until the late nineteenth century, and, in a clever act of corporate resurrection, has even recently returned as a global, upmarket retail outlet selling fine foods and commemorative coins. It has also endured in the popular imagination and culture, churning out heroes and villains alike in film, television, and video games. The script writer for a forthcoming BBC miniseries, in which the East India Company stars as the prime antagonist, even noted recently that the Company was like “the CIA, the NSA, and the biggest, baddest multinational corporation on earth” wrapped into one corporation. All of this attention of late to one of the largest and most enduring corporations of its time, which managed a commercial and political system separated by half a world at upwards of a year and half’s distance, is perhaps unsurprising given the great legal, political, and economic conundrums surrounding the modern multinational corporation, from questions about global management to controversial issues such as tax inversions, monopoly, state-owned corporations, as well as the corporate person’s rights to free speech, religion, and so on. However, from outlandish film productions to the most sober of scholarship, the connections between the Company’s past and our present seem to have become all things to all people, stretched almost to the point of breaking. Though it would be impossible to be exhaustive, this Article nonetheless seeks to outline the various ways in which the East India Company’s legacy has been drawn upon in a range of fields, but especially legal and business scholarship, for a wide range of purposes. In so doing, it proposes that the sheer diversity of uses to which the Company’s history has been put, as well as the lack of any agreement about the meaning and nature of such comparisons, might suggest that the lessons the East India Company can offer to the financial, commercial, and organizational history of the modern corporation, while inherently interesting and heuristically instructive, must necessarily be limited, cautionary, and entertained at one’s own risk

Forecasting new product trial with analogous series

types: ArticleNOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Journal of Business Research. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Journal of Business Research, 2015. doi:10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.032This study develops a simple method for forecasting consumer trial for national product launches. The number of consumers who try a brand in its first year on the market is accurately predicted from the number trying the brand in the first thirteen weeks following launch. No information about the specific category or marketing activities is required– just a simple multiplier computed from analogous series in other markets. These analogues provide an empirical generalization that can be easily applied by practicing managers to track and forecast the success of new brand launches. When subject to an out-of-sample test involving 34 fresh data sets, the analogues demonstrated 43 percent reduction in Mean Absolute Percentage Error compared to the most accurate marketing science model

The relationship between household life cycle and brand loyalty

types: ArticleThis research investigates changes in brand loyalty as households pass from one stage of the household life cycle to another. Analysing 45 brands in three consumer product categories in the UK, we find that the changes follow a U shape pattern. Brand loyalty declines as households shift from the young single stage to the young couple and the young family stage, remains relatively lower through the older family stage, and then increases at the post family and older single stages

Forecasting pharmaceutical life cycles: a case study on how drugs are prescribed in the NHS in the UK

This paper is a case study on how pharmaceuticals are prescribed on the NHS in the UK. The paper discusses the modelling and forecasting of pharmaceutical life cycles, specifically around after the time of patent expiry. In this situation one of two things can occur the branded pharmaceutical sales remain high while the generic are low, the alternative is when the branded drug declines and stays low while the sales of the generic drug are high.. Understanding the patterns of brand decline (and the associated generic growth) is increasingly important because in a market currently worth over £7bn in the UK, the number of new ‘blockbuster’ drugs continues to decline. As a result pharmaceutical companies make efforts to extend the commercial life of their brands, and the ability to forecast is important in this regard. Second, this paper provides insights for effective governance because the use of a branded drug (when a generic is available) results in wasted resources. Five methods are used to model and forecast these life cycles: Bass Diffusion, Repeat Purchase Diffusion Model (RPDM), Naïve, Exponential Smoothing and Moving Averages. The empirical evidence presented here suggests that the use of the Naïve model incorporating drift provided the most accurate and robust method of modelling both types of prescribing, with the more advanced models being less accurate

How to grow a brand: retain or acquire customers?

Journal ArticleWhile customer acquisition is clearly important for new brands, mature brands are often said to rely on defection management for maintenance and growth. Yet the theory to support this approach has been subject to very little empirical investigation. How do brands actually increase the size of their customer base? Through superior acquisition or by reducing customer defection? Or some mixture of both? Conversely, do brands decline through deficient acquisition or excessive defection? This work analyzes changes in ‘first brand loyal’ customers to answer these questions, using a combination of panel data on the prescribing behavior of doctors and a cross-sectional tracking survey for residential finance. This study is the first research to compare defection and acquisition against stochastic benchmarks for customer churn under stationary conditions. The results are surprising: for both growth and decline, unusual acquisition plays a stronger role than unusual defection. This finding demonstrates that acquisition has been under-rated in the past, and implies that prospect management is at least as important as defection reduction. A simulation shows that unusual acquisition also accounts for far more variation in profit than does unusual defection.n/