Magnetic Flux of EUV Arcade and Dimming Regions as a Relevant Parameter for Early Diagnostics of Solar Eruptions - Sources of Non-Recurrent Geomagnetic Storms and Forbush Decreases

This study aims at the early diagnostics of geoeffectiveness of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from quantitative parameters of the accompanying EUV dimming and arcade events. We study events of the 23th solar cycle, in which major non-recurrent geomagnetic storms (GMS) with Dst <-100 nT are sufficiently reliably identified with their solar sources in the central part of the disk. Using the SOHO/EIT 195 A images and MDI magnetograms, we select significant dimming and arcade areas and calculate summarized unsigned magnetic fluxes in these regions at the photospheric level. The high relevance of this eruption parameter is displayed by its pronounced correlation with the Forbush decrease (FD) magnitude, which, unlike GMSs, does not depend on the sign of the Bz component but is determined by global characteristics of ICMEs. Correlations with the same magnetic flux in the solar source region are found for the GMS intensity (at the first step, without taking into account factors determining the Bz component near the Earth), as well as for the temporal intervals between the solar eruptions and the GMS onset and peak times. The larger the magnetic flux, the stronger the FD and GMS intensities are and the shorter the ICME transit time is. The revealed correlations indicate that the main quantitative characteristics of major non-recurrent space weather disturbances are largely determined by measurable parameters of solar eruptions, in particular, by the magnetic flux in dimming areas and arcades, and can be tentatively estimated in advance with a lead time from 1 to 4 days. For GMS intensity, the revealed dependencies allow one to estimate a possible value, which can be expected if the Bz component is negative.Comment: 27 pages, 5 figures. Accepted for publication in Solar Physic

Homologous Flares and Magnetic Field Topology in Active Region NOAA 10501 on 20 November 2003

We present and interpret observations of two morphologically homologous flares that occurred in active region (AR) NOAA 10501 on 20 November 2003. Both flares displayed four homologous H-alpha ribbons and were both accompanied by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The central flare ribbons were located at the site of an emerging bipole in the center of the active region. The negative polarity of this bipole fragmented in two main pieces, one rotating around the positive polarity by ~ 110 deg within 32 hours. We model the coronal magnetic field and compute its topology, using as boundary condition the magnetogram closest in time to each flare. In particular, we calculate the location of quasiseparatrix layers (QSLs) in order to understand the connectivity between the flare ribbons. Though several polarities were present in AR 10501, the global magnetic field topology corresponds to a quadrupolar magnetic field distribution without magnetic null points. For both flares, the photospheric traces of QSLs are similar and match well the locations of the four H-alpha ribbons. This globally unchanged topology and the continuous shearing by the rotating bipole are two key factors responsible for the flare homology. However, our analyses also indicate that different magnetic connectivity domains of the quadrupolar configuration become unstable during each flare, so that magnetic reconnection proceeds differently in both events.Comment: 24 pages, 10 figures, Solar Physics (accepted

Formation of a White-Light Jet within a Quadrupolar Magnetic Configuration

We analyze multi-wavelength and multi-viewpoint observations of a large-scale event viewed on 7 April 2011 originating from an active region complex. The activity leads to a white-light jet being formed in the outer corona. The topology and evolution of the coronal structures were imaged in high resolution using the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). In addition, large field-of-view images of the corona were obtained using the Sun Watcher using Active Pixel System detector and Image Processing (SWAP) telescope onboard the PRoject for Onboard Autonomy (PROBA2) microsatellite, providing evidence for the connectivity of the coronal structures with outer coronal features that were imaged with the Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) C2 on Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). The data-sets reveal an Eiffel-tower type jet configuration extending into a narrow jet in the outer corona. The event starts from the growth of a dark area in the central part of the structure. The darkening was also observed in projection on the disk by the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A) spacecraft from a different point of view. We assume that the dark volume in the corona descends from a coronal cavity of a flux rope that moved up higher in the corona but still failed to erupt. The quadrupolar magnetic configuration corresponds to a saddle-like shape of the dark volume and provides a possibility for the plasma to escape along the open field lines into the outer corona, forming the white-light jet.Comment: 15 pages, 10 figure

Five-Year Mortality for Adults Entering Human Immunodeficiency Virus Care Under Universal Early Treatment Compared With the General US Population

Background: Mortality among adults with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains elevated over those in the US general population, even in the years after entry into HIV care. We explore whether the elevation in 5-year mortality would have persisted if all adults with HIV had initiated antiretroviral therapy within 3 months of entering care. Methods: Among 82 766 adults entering HIV care at North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration clinical sites in the United States, we computed mortality over 5 years since entry into HIV care under observed treatment patterns. We then used inverse probability weights to estimate mortality under universal early treatment. To compare mortality with those for similar individuals in the general population, we used National Center for Health Statistics data to construct a cohort representing the subset of the US population matched to study participants on key characteristics. Results: For the entire study period (1999-2017), the 5-year mortality among adults with HIV was 7.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.6%-8.2%) higher than expected based on the US general population. Under universal early treatment, the elevation in mortality for people with HIV would have been 7.2% (95% CI: 5.8%-8.6%). In the most recent calendar period examined (2011-2017), the elevation in mortality for people with HIV was 2.6% (95% CI: 2.0%-3.3%) under observed treatment patterns and 2.1% (.0%-4.2%) under universal early treatment. Conclusions: Expanding early treatment may modestly reduce, but not eliminate, the elevation in mortality for people with HIV

Coronal Dimmings and the Early Phase of a CME Observed with STEREO and Hinode/EIS

We investigate the early phase of the 13 February 2009 coronal mass ejection (CME). Observations with the twin STEREO spacecraft in quadrature allow us to compare for the first time in one and the same event the temporal evolution of coronal EUV dimmings, observed simultaneously on-disk and above the limb. We find that these dimmings are synchronized and appear during the impulsive acceleration phase of the CME, with the highest EUV intensity drop occurring a few minutes after the maximum CME acceleration. During the propagation phase two confined, bipolar dimming regions, appearing near the footpoints of a pre-flare sigmoid structure, show an apparent migration away from the site of the CME-associated flare. Additionally, they rotate around the 'center' of the flare site, i.e., the configuration of the dimmings exhibits the same 'sheared-to-potential' evolution as the postflare loops. We conclude that the motion pattern of the twin dimmings reflects not only the eruption of the flux rope, but also the ensuing stretching of the overlying arcade. Finally, we find that: (1) the global-scale dimmings, expanding from the source region of the eruption, propagate with a speed similar to that of the leaving CME front; (2) the mass loss occurs mainly during the period of strongest CME acceleration. Two hours after the eruption Hinode/EIS observations show no substantial plasma outflow, originating from the 'open' field twin dimming regions.Comment: accepted for publication in Solar Physic

An Observational Overview of Solar Flares

We present an overview of solar flares and associated phenomena, drawing upon a wide range of observational data primarily from the RHESSI era. Following an introductory discussion and overview of the status of observational capabilities, the article is split into topical sections which deal with different areas of flare phenomena (footpoints and ribbons, coronal sources, relationship to coronal mass ejections) and their interconnections. We also discuss flare soft X-ray spectroscopy and the energetics of the process. The emphasis is to describe the observations from multiple points of view, while bearing in mind the models that link them to each other and to theory. The present theoretical and observational understanding of solar flares is far from complete, so we conclude with a brief discussion of models, and a list of missing but important observations.Comment: This is an article for a monograph on the physics of solar flares, inspired by RHESSI observations. The individual articles are to appear in Space Science Reviews (2011