Neutrino masses or new interactions

Recent proposals to study the mass of the "electron" neutrino at a sensitivity of 0.3 eV can be used to place limits on the right handed and scalar charged currents at a level which improves on the present experimental limits. Indeed the neglect of the possibility of such interactions can lead to the inference of an incorrect value for the mass, as we illustrate.Comment: 12 pages and 3 figures. Contributed to the XX International Symposium on Lepton and Photon Interactions at High Energies, Rome, July 2001, and to the International Europhysics Conference on High Energy Physics, Budapest, July 2001. Preprint numbers added, misprints correcte

Neutrino clustering and the Z-burst model

The possibility that the observed Ultra High Energy Cosmic Rays are generated by high energy neutrinos creating "Z-bursts" in resonant interactions with the background neutrinos has been proposed, but there are difficulties in generating enough events with reasonable incident neutrino fluxes. We point out that this difficulty is overcome if the background neutrinos have coalesced into "neutrino clouds" --- a possibility previously suggested by some of us in another context. The limitations that this mechanism for the generation of UHECRs places on the high energy neutrino flux, on the masses of the background neutrinos and the characteristics of the neutrino clouds are spelled out.Comment: 13 pages and 3 figures. Contributed to the XX International Symposium on Lepton and Photon Interactions at High Energies, Rome, July 2001, and to the International Europhysics Conference on High Energy Physics, Budapest, July 2001. Preprint numbers added, misprints correcte

A Bayesian framework for verification and recalibration of ensemble forecasts: How uncertain is NAO predictability?

Predictability estimates of ensemble prediction systems are uncertain due to limited numbers of past forecasts and observations. To account for such uncertainty, this paper proposes a Bayesian inferential framework that provides a simple 6-parameter representation of ensemble forecasting systems and the corresponding observations. The framework is probabilistic, and thus allows for quantifying uncertainty in predictability measures such as correlation skill and signal-to-noise ratios. It also provides a natural way to produce recalibrated probabilistic predictions from uncalibrated ensembles forecasts. The framework is used to address important questions concerning the skill of winter hindcasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation for 1992-2011 issued by the Met Office GloSea5 climate prediction system. Although there is much uncertainty in the correlation between ensemble mean and observations, there is strong evidence of skill: the 95% credible interval of the correlation coefficient of [0.19,0.68] does not overlap zero. There is also strong evidence that the forecasts are not exchangeable with the observations: With over 99% certainty, the signal-to-noise ratio of the forecasts is smaller than the signal-to-noise ratio of the observations, which suggests that raw forecasts should not be taken as representative scenarios of the observations. Forecast recalibration is thus required, which can be coherently addressed within the proposed framework.Comment: 36 pages, 10 figure

Gas of self-avoiding loops on the brickwork lattice

An exact calculation of the phase diagram for a loop gas model on the brickwork lattice is presented. The model includes a bending energy. In the dense limit, where all the lattice sites are occupied, a phase transition occuring at an asymmetric Lifshitz tricritical point is observed as the temperature associated with the bending energy is varied. Various critical exponents are calculated. At lower densities, two lines of transitions (in the Ising universality class) are observed, terminated by a tricritical point, where there is a change in the modulation of the correlation function. To each tricritical point an associated disorder line is found.Comment: 19 pages, 6 figures. to appear in J. Phys. A : Math. & Ge

MSW-like Enhancements without Matter

We study the effects of a scalar field, coupled only to neutrinos, on oscillations among weak interaction current eigenstates. The effect of a real scalar field appears as effective masses for the neutrino mass eigenstates, the same for \nbar as for \n. Under some conditions, this can lead to a vanishing of $\delta m^2$, giving rise to MSW-like effects. We discuss some examples and show that it is possible to resolve the apparent discrepancy in spectra required by r-process nucleosynthesis in the mantles of supernovae and by Solar neutrino solutions.Comment: 9 pages, latex, 1 figur

Epoch Dependent Dark Energy

We present a model in which the equation of state parameter w approaches -1 near a particular value of z, and has significant negative values in a restricted range of z. For example, one can have w ~ -1 near z = 1, and w > -0.2 from z = 0 to z = 0.3, and for z > 9. The ingredients of the model are neutral fermions (which may be neutrinos, neutralinos, etc) which are very weakly coupled to a light scalar field. This model emphasises the importance of the proposed studies of the properties of dark energy into the region z > 1.Comment: 7pp., 2 figs. Invited talk at the 5th Int'l. Wkshp. on the Dark Side of the Universe, 1-5 June 2009 Melbourne, DSU09; to appear in the proceeding