A hierarchical Bayesian model for predicting ecological interactions using scaled evolutionary relationships

Identifying undocumented or potential future interactions among species is a challenge facing modern ecologists. Recent link prediction methods rely on trait data, however large species interaction databases are typically sparse and covariates are limited to only a fraction of species. On the other hand, evolutionary relationships, encoded as phylogenetic trees, can act as proxies for underlying traits and historical patterns of parasite sharing among hosts. We show that using a network-based conditional model, phylogenetic information provides strong predictive power in a recently published global database of host-parasite interactions. By scaling the phylogeny using an evolutionary model, our method allows for biological interpretation often missing from latent variable models. To further improve on the phylogeny-only model, we combine a hierarchical Bayesian latent score framework for bipartite graphs that accounts for the number of interactions per species with the host dependence informed by phylogeny. Combining the two information sources yields significant improvement in predictive accuracy over each of the submodels alone. As many interaction networks are constructed from presence-only data, we extend the model by integrating a correction mechanism for missing interactions, which proves valuable in reducing uncertainty in unobserved interactions.Comment: To appear in the Annals of Applied Statistic

Supersonic Engine Inlet Tone Noise Radiation

A computational and experimental acoustic analysis was conducted on a supersonic engine inlet geometry with a spike center body and an auxiliary inlet. Simulations performed using two different commercial acoustics software packages were compared to a scale model experiment conducted using an ultrasonic fan noise simulator. Both the experiment and simulations were run at discrete circumferential mode and frequency combinations to identify strengths and weaknesses of each method. For cases where a single azimuthal mode was well cut on throughout the length of the duct, reasonable agreement was found between the three methods. In cases with more complicated acoustic effects, the experimental results became intractable when considered alone and the simulations were needed for interpreting the results. The peak sound level and the peak angle of the far field radiation vary widely when changing modes and frequencies. The objective of the study is to develop a validated workflow for simulation of fan tone noise through supersonic inlet geometries for community noise predictions

Illuminating dark matter and primordial black holes with interstellar antiprotons

Interstellar antiproton fluxes can arise from dark matter annihilating or decaying into quarks or gluons that subsequently fragment into antiprotons. Evaporation of primordial black holes also can produce a significant antiproton cosmic-ray flux. Since the background of secondary antiprotons from spallation has an interstellar energy spectrum that peaks at \sim 2\gev and falls rapidly for energies below this, low-energy measurements of cosmic antiprotons are useful in the search for exotic antiproton sources. However, measurement of the flux near the earth is challenged by significant uncertainties from the effects of the solar wind. We suggest evading this problem and more effectively probing dark-matter signals by placing an antiproton spectrometer aboard an interstellar probe currently under discussion. We address the experimental challenges of a light, low-power-consuming detector, and present an initial design of such an instrument. This experimental effort could significantly increase our ability to detect, and have confidence in, a signal of exotic, nonstandard antiproton sources. Furthermore, solar modulation effects in the heliosphere would be better quantified and understood by comparing results to inverse modulated data derived from existing balloon and space-based detectors near the earth.Comment: 18 pages, 3 figure

Frustrations of fur-farmed mink

Captive animals may suffer if strongly motivated to perform activities that their housing does not allow. We investigated this experimentally for caged mink, and found that they would pay high costs to perform a range of natural behaviours, and release cortisol if their most preferred activity, swimming, was prevented. Investigates the effect of limitations on caged mink. Popularity of fur farming; Research into the possible deprivation of mink, which result in their frustration; Details of the experiment; Impact of an access to water; Results which indicate that fur-farmed mink are still motivated to perform the same activities as their wild counterpart

The birth place of the type Ic Supernova 2007gr

We report our attempts to locate the progenitor of the peculiar type Ic SN 2007gr in HST pre-explosion images of the host galaxy, NGC 1058. Aligning adaptive optics Altair/NIRI imaging of SN 2007gr from the Gemini (North) Telescope with the pre-explosion HST WFPC2 images, we identify the SN position on the HST frames with an accuracy of 20 mas. Although nothing is detected at the SN position we show that it lies on the edge of a bright source, 134+/-23 mas (6.9 pc) from its nominal centre. Based on its luminosity we suggest that this object is possibly an unresolved, compact and coeval cluster and that the SN progenitor was a cluster member, although we note that model profile fitting favours a single bright star. We find two solutions for the age of this assumed cluster; 7-/+0.5 Myrs and 20-30 Myrs, with turn-off masses of 28+/-4 Msun and 12-9 Msun respectively. Pre-explosion ground-based K-band images marginally favour the younger cluster age/higher turn-off mass. Assuming the SN progenitor was a cluster member, the turn-off mass provides the best estimate for its initial mass. More detailed observations, after the SN has faded, should determine if the progenitor was indeed part of a cluster, and if so allow an age estimate to within ~2 Myrs thereby favouring either a high mass single star or lower mass interacting binary progenitor.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures, resolution of fig 1. has been reduced, some revision based on referee's comments, Accepted ApJL 27 Nov 200

Fluorescence: A Novel Method for Determining Manuka Honey Floral Purity

Manuka honey, harvested from Leptospermum scoparium, is New Zealand\u27s most recognised honey type and commands a premium due to health‐related benefits. However, the plant\u27s distribution, relative to other species flowering simultaneously, allows honeybees to incorporate alternative nectars into the honey. Melissopalynological analysis in New Zealand is often unrepresentative due to the presence of many pollen‐bearing sources; consequently, alternative means of categorising manuka honey were examined. RP‐HPLC revealed that manuka honey contains distinct compounds, of which were relatively enriched and not present in the other New Zealand monofloral honeys. These main candidate compounds were isolated and have been described by mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance, synthesised to confirm structure, and as standards. These compounds, Leptosperin and Lepteridine, are a methyl syringate glycoside and pteridine derivative, respectively. Examination of these compounds revealed unique fluorescence signatures, this fluorescence could be detected in manuka honey samples the signal used to confirm that a honey was solely or predominantly consisted of L. scoparium nectar. Commercial manuka honeys were assessed by traditional analytical techniques, and comparisons were made with fluorescence signature; the fluorescence technique determined the authenticity of the honeys accurately

Weakening and strengthening structures in the Hadley Circulation change under global warming and implications for cloud response and climate sensitivity

It has long been recognized that differences in climate model-simulated cloud feedbacks are a primary source of uncertainties for the model-predicted surface temperature change induced by increasing greenhouse gases such as CO_2. Large-scale circulation broadly determines when and where clouds form and how they evolve. However, the linkage between large-scale circulation change and cloud radiative effect (CRE) change under global warming has not been thoroughly studied. By analyzing 15 climate models, we show that the change of the Hadley Circulation exhibits meridionally varying weakening and strengthening structures, physically consistent with the cloud changes in distinct cloud regimes. The regions that experience a weakening (strengthening) of the zonal-mean circulation account for 54% (46%) of the multimodel-mean top-of-atmosphere (TOA) CRE change integrated over 45°S–40°N. The simulated Hadley Circulation structure changes per degree of surface warming differ greatly between the models, and the intermodel spread in the Hadley Circulation change is well correlated with the intermodel spread in the TOA CRE change. This correlation underscores the close interactions between large-scale circulation and clouds and suggests that the uncertainties of cloud feedbacks and climate sensitivity reside in the intimate coupling between large-scale circulation and clouds. New model performance metrics proposed in this work, which emphasize how models reproduce satellite-observed spatial variations of zonal-mean cloud fraction and relative humidity associated with the Hadley Circulation, indicate that the models closer to the satellite observations tend to have equilibrium climate sensitivity higher than the multimodel mean

The Life Science Exchange: a case study of a sectoral and sub-sectoral knowledge exchange programme

Background: Local and national governments have implemented sector-specific policies to support economic development through innovation, entrepreneurship and knowledge exchange. Supported by the Welsh Government through the European Regional Development Fund, The Life Science Exchange® project was created with the aim to increase interaction between stakeholders, to develop more effective knowledge exchange mechanisms, and to stimulate the formation and maintenance of long-term collaborative relationships within the Welsh life sciences ecosystem. The Life Science Exchange allowed participants to interact with other stakeholder communities (clinical, academic, business, governmental), exchange perspectives and discover new opportunities.Methods: Six sub-sector focus groups comprising over 200 senior stakeholders from academia, industry, the Welsh Government and National Health Service were established. Over 18 months, each focus group provided input to inform healthcare innovation policy and knowledge mapping exercises of their respective sub-sectors. Collaborative projects identified during the focus groups and stakeholder engagement were further developed through sandpit events and bespoke support.Results: Each sub-sector focus group produced a report outlining the significant strengths and opportunities in their respective areas of focus, made recommendations to overcome any ‘system failures’, and identified the stakeholder groups which needed to take action. A second outcome was a stakeholder-driven knowledge mapping exercise for each area of focus. Finally, the sandpit events and bespoke support resulted in participants generating more than £1.66 million in grant funding and inward investment. This article outlines four separate outcomes from the Life Science Exchange programme.Conclusions: The Life Science Exchange process has resulted in a multitude of collaborations, projects, inward investment opportunities and special interest group formations, in addition to securing over ten times its own costs in funding for Wales. The Life Science Exchange model is a simple and straightforward mechanism for a regional or national government to adapt and implement in order to improve innovation, skills, networks and knowledge exchange

Understanding the influences on successful quality improvement in emergency general surgery: learning from the RCS Chole-QuIC project.

BACKGROUND: Acute gallstone disease is the highest volume Emergency General Surgical presentation in the UK. Recent data indicate wide variations in the quality of care provided across the country, with national guidance for care delivery not implemented in most UK hospitals. Against this backdrop, the Royal College of Surgeons of England set up a 13-hospital quality improvement collaborative (Chole-QuIC) to support clinical teams to reduce time to surgery for patients with acute gallstone disease requiring emergency cholecystectomy. METHODS: Prospective, mixed-methods process evaluation to answer the following: (1) how was the collaborative delivered by the faculty and received, understood and enacted by the participants; (2) what influenced teams' ability to improve care for patients requiring emergency cholecystectomy? We collected and analysed a range of data including field notes, ethnographic observations of meetings, and project documentation. Analysis was based on the framework approach, informed by Normalisation Process Theory, and involved the creation of comparative case studies based on hospital performance during the project. RESULTS: Chole-QuIC was delivered as planned and was well received and understood by participants. Four hospitals were identified as highly successful, based upon a substantial increase in the number of patients having surgery in line with national guidance. Conversely, four hospitals were identified as challenged, achieving no significant improvement. The comparative analysis indicate that six inter-related influences appeared most associated with improvement: (1) achieving clarity of purpose amongst site leads and key stakeholders; (2) capacity to lead and effective project support; (3) ideas to action; (4) learning from own and others' experience; (5) creating additional capacity to do emergency cholecystectomies; and (6) coordinating/managing the patient pathway. CONCLUSION: Collaborative-based quality improvement is a viable strategy for emergency surgery but success requires the deployment of effective clinical strategies in conjunction with improvement strategies. In particular, achieving clarity of purpose about proposed changes amongst key stakeholders was a vital precursor to improvement, enabling the creation of additional surgical capacity and new pathways to be implemented effectively. Protected time, testing ideas, and the ability to learn quickly from data and experience were associated with greater impact within this cohort