A disaggregate approach to economic models of voting in U.S. presidential elections: forecasts of the 2008 election

By examining disaggregate state-level data, we address two weaknesses of prior estimates of economic voting models in U.S. Presidential elections. First, our disaggregate approach substantially improves statistical power, thus reducing the danger of “over- fitting.†Second, our analysis demonstrates systematic differences in voting behavior across states, which have been ignored: voters in higher-income states respond significantly to inflation, changes in the Dow-Jones stock market average, the number of terms the incumbent party has held office, and measures of national security concerns, yet voters in lower-income states respond significantly only to economic growth. Our forecasts for the 2008 U.S. Presidential election predict a statistical dead-heat overall, but a systematic preference for Senator John McCain in lower-income states and for Senator Barack Obama in higher-income states.

'Guns and butter'' in U.S. presidential elections

Previous models of the popular vote in U.S. Presidential elections emphasize economic growth and price stability, the role of parties and incumbency, and pre-election expectations for the future. Despite the closeness of the pre-election polls in 2004, formal models instead predict a landslide victory for President Bush. An obvious question is whether this anomaly arises, at least in part, from national security concerns – in particular, the conflict in Iraq. We explore this pre-election anomaly by introducing two opposing electoral forces capturing national security concerns, which for the 2004 election reduces President Bush's predicted vote share. In general, the impact of national security concerns on the vote share of the incumbent (or the incumbent''s party) can be substantial, whether positive, as in the 1944 election during World War II, or negative, as in the 1952 election during the Korean war and the 1968 election during the Vietnam war.

Evaluation of microbial diversity present in herbal supplements as revealed by PCR-based 16S sequence analysis

Over the last few decades people have become more aware of their general wellness and have turned towards alternative measures to ensure good health. One of these alternative measures, the herbal supplement market, has risen significantly in recent years, even though there is no conclusive research that points to the effectiveness of herbal supplements. Also, because of sparse regulation from the FDA, there are many questions related to the efficacy, composition, processing methods, and, consequently, safety of these supplements. The aim of this study was to determine the microbial composition of herbal supplements in an attempt to identify potential targets for both effectiveness and dangers. Five out of six herbal supplements tested contained evidence of bacterial DNA, with Gingko Biloba being the only exception. Dominant bacterial species or groups detected in multiple samples were Salmonella enterica, Lactobacillus spp, Shigella sonnei, Salmonella paratyphi a, Escherichia_Shigella spp, and Clostridium spp., although 27 different species or species groups were identified. S. enterica and Lactobacillus spp. were the most proportionally abundant species in most samples, representing a potential pathogen (S. enterica) and a potentially beneficial bacterium (Lactobacillus spp.), although neither of these species, or the others detected, could explain the variability in efficacy of supplements. The presence of DNA from potential pathogens in herbal supplements, along with that from bacterial cells that should only present in humans or animals, suggests that further regulation and/or moderation is needed so that herbal supplements will be adequately monitored to ensure their efficacy and safety

Evaluation of microbial diversity present in herbal supplements as revealed by PCR-based 16S sequence analysis

Over the last few decades people have become more aware of their general wellness and have turned towards alternative measures to ensure good health. One of these alternative measures, the herbal supplement market, has risen significantly in recent years, even though there is no conclusive research that points to the effectiveness of herbal supplements. Also, because of sparse regulation from the FDA, there are many questions related to the efficacy, composition, processing methods, and, consequently, safety of these supplements. The aim of this study was to determine the microbial composition of herbal supplements in an attempt to identify potential targets for both effectiveness and dangers. Five out of six herbal supplements tested contained evidence of bacterial DNA, with Gingko Biloba being the only exception. Dominant bacterial species or groups detected in multiple samples were Salmonella enterica, Lactobacillus spp, Shigella sonnei, Salmonella paratyphi a, Escherichia_Shigella spp, and Clostridium spp., although 27 different species or species groups were identified. S. enterica and Lactobacillus spp. were the most proportionally abundant species in most samples, representing a potential pathogen (S. enterica) and a potentially beneficial bacterium (Lactobacillus spp.), although neither of these species, or the others detected, could explain the variability in efficacy of supplements. The presence of DNA from potential pathogens in herbal supplements, along with that from bacterial cells that should only present in humans or animals, suggests that further regulation and/or moderation is needed so that herbal supplements will be adequately monitored to ensure their efficacy and safety

Hydrologic Response Caused by Wetland Expansion at Huntley Meadows Park in Hybla Valley, Virginia

The goal of this study was to understand the effects of wetland expansion across a watershed. The 2013 restoration and expansion of the wetlands at Huntley Meadows Park (Fairfax County, VA) performed by Wetland Studies and Solutions, Inc. provided the opportunity to study this process. The 630 ha park contains more than 364 ha of freshwater emergent and freshwater forested wetlands. The restoration and expansion project used a subsurface vinyl-piling dam that impedes groundwater flow leaving the wetland, thus expanding the existing pond and the surrounding wetland. This study used a network of more than twenty monitoring instruments making observations of hydrologic and weather data, along with soils maps and soil borings, and observations of vegetation provided by scientists from Virginia Tech. Data from these sources were used to characterize the hydrologic drivers and responses throughout the area before and after wetland expansion for the purpose of developing wetland water budgets within Wetbud to model the effects of wetland expansion. Observations of water table elevations made throughout the park indicated the water levels in the pond at Huntley Meadows Park are not strongly influenced by regional groundwater flow. However, observations of diurnal fluctuations of the water table at monitoring wells located in emergent and forested/shrub wetlands revealed that spatial variations in actual evapotranspiration (AET) rates strongly influence the distribution of water throughout the park. The effects of AET are strong enough to induce a seasonal reversal in hydraulic gradients where water table elevations surrounding the pond are greater than the pond during the winter months and lower than the pond during the growing season. Wetland expansion during the study initiated changes in vegetation and hydrology. To model the potential effects of AET that may change due to expansion, monthly crop coefficients (Kc) were developed with reference ET coming from the Reagan National Airport NOAA weather station and AET coming from diurnal fluctuations of the water table analyzed with a MATLAB-adapted version of White’s Method. Monthly predictions of head within the wetland and outflow through the weir, modeled using Wetbud’s Basic Scenario tools, were improved when area-weighted Kc values were applied to the model. Additionally, daily predictions of head, made using Wetbud’s Advanced Scenarios tools (a graphical user interface for USGS MODFLOW), were improved when spatially appropriate Kc values were applied to the model. However, when modeling differences in the distribution of plant communities from two consecutive years during the transitional period, there was little difference in predicted head values. Based on the differences in observed AET rates between emergent and forested/shrub wetlands, we suspect models of expanded wetlands that have had sufficient time to fully transition from the pre-construction distribution of plant communities to the design-intended distribution will require different distributions of crop coefficients and corresponding evapotranspiration rates in those models in order to accurately predict water levels for the design-intended distribution of plant communities

Rare b Decays

Rare b decays provide a unique opportunity to measure Standard Model parameters and probe beyond the Standard Model. We review here the experimentalprogress made in measuring these decays, and the importance of future measurements, including the possible observation of CP violation.Comment: To be published in International Journal of Modern Physics Letters A This is a 34 page review article, the file is uuencoded postscrip

Replacing iron-folic acid with multiple micronutrient supplements among pregnant women in Bangladesh and Burkina Faso: costs, impacts, and cost-effectiveness.

Consumption of multiple micronutrient supplements (MMS) during pregnancy offers additional benefits compared with iron-folic acid (IFA) supplementation, but the tablets are more expensive. We estimated the effects, costs, and cost-effectiveness of hypothetically replacing IFA supplements with MMS for 1 year in Bangladesh and Burkina Faso. Using baseline demographic characteristics from LiST and effect sizes from a meta-analysis, we estimated the marginal effects of replacing IFA with MMS on mortality, adverse birth outcomes, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. We calculated the marginal tablet costs of completely replacing MMS with IFA (assuming 180 tablets per covered pregnancy). Replacing IFA with MMS could avert over 15,000 deaths and 30,000 cases of preterm birth annually in Bangladesh and over 5000 deaths and 5000 cases of preterm birth in Burkina Faso, assuming 100% coverage and adherence. We estimated the cost per death averted to be US$175-185 in Bangladesh and$112-125 in Burkina Faso. Cost per DALY averted ranged from $3 to$15, depending on the country and consideration of subgroup effects. Our estimates suggest that this policy change would cost-effectively save lives and reduce life-long disabilities. Improvements in program delivery and supplement adherence would be expected to improve the cost-effectiveness of replacing IFA with MMS

Recent Developments in Montana Natural Resources Law

Recent Developments In Montana Natural Resources La