Frost heave in compressible soils

We develop a mathematical model of frost heave in compressible soils based on a morphological instability of the ice–soil interface. The theory accounts for heave and soil consolidation,while avoiding the frozen fringe assumption. Using a Lie-B¨acklund transformation an analytical solution to the governing equations is found. Two solidification regimes occur: a compaction regime in which the soil consolidates to accommodate the ice lenses, and a heave regime during which the soil is fully consolidated and heaves. The rate of heave is found to be independent of the rate of freezing, consistent with field and laboratory observations

To Use Constructed-Response Questions, Or Not To Use Constructed-Response Questions? That Is The Question

Advocates of Constructed Response (CR) questions argue that CR questions provide a different assessment of student knowledge than is available from Multiple Choice (MC) questions. If that is the case, and if the benefit in terms of improved assessment is substantial, then it follows that grade outcomes using CR questions should be different from those using MC questions. We investigate this using a large dataset composed of individual assessment results from thousands of students in introductory economics classes at a large public university. Empirical analysis of our large sample of students indicates that a switch to an all-MC format would result in grade changes that are in the “small” to moderate range when compared to grade changes that occur between assessments. This evidence suggests that CR questions could be abandoned at relatively little cost in grading accuracy. However, there are other arguments in favour of keeping CR questions. In particular, it has been suggested that students perceive a mix of CR and MC as “fairer” than an assessment composed exclusively of one or the other question type. Further, some instructors believe that CR questions encourage students to study harder. We provide survey evidence that supports both arguments.Principles of Economics Assessment; Multiple Choice; Constructed Response; Free Response; Essay

Early-stage entrepreneurial activity in the European Union: some issues and challenges

In this paper the authors present the levels of Total early-stage Entrepreneurial Activity (TEA) across 16 Member States of the European Union participating in the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM - 2004 research 2). They also compare the average TEA rate for these 16 EU-countries participating in GEM with the average for some other OECD-countries, further referred to as 'Anglo'-countries: the United States of America, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Next, they relate the striking differences in TEA across countries to underlying cultural and institutional differences. And also they examine some other current issues associated with entrepreneurial activity in Europe, such as ageing of the population, and technology-based start-ups.

Emotion recognition in simulated social interactions

Social context plays an important role in everyday emotional interactions, and others' faces often provide contextual cues in social situations. Investigating this complex social process is a challenge that can be addressed with the use of computergenerated facial expressions. In the current research, we use synthesized facial expressions to investigate the influence of socioaffective inferential mechanisms on the recognition of social emotions. Participants judged blends of facial expressions of shame-sadness, or of anger-disgust, in a target avatar face presented at the center of a screen while a contextual avatar face expressed an emotion (disgust, contempt, sadness) or remained neutral. The dynamics of the facial expressions and the head/gaze movements of the two avatars were manipulated in order to create an interaction in which the two avatars shared eye gaze only in the social interaction condition. Results of Experiment 1 revealed that when the avatars engaged in social interaction, target expression blends of shame and sadness were perceived as expressing more shame if the contextual face expressed disgust and more sadness when the contextual face expressed sadness. Interestingly, perceptions of shame were not enhanced when the contextual face expressed contempt. The latter finding is probably attributable to the low recognition rates for the expression of contempt observed in Experiment 2

Identification of Genome-Scale Metabolic Network Models Using Experimentally Measured Flux Profiles

Genome-scale metabolic network models can be reconstructed for well-characterized organisms using genomic annotation and literature information. However, there are many instances in which model predictions of metabolic fluxes are not entirely consistent with experimental data, indicating that the reactions in the model do not match the active reactions in the in vivo system. We introduce a method for determining the active reactions in a genome-scale metabolic network based on a limited number of experimentally measured fluxes. This method, called optimal metabolic network identification (OMNI), allows efficient identification of the set of reactions that results in the best agreement between in silico predicted and experimentally measured flux distributions. We applied the method to intracellular flux data for evolved Escherichia coli mutant strains with lower than predicted growth rates in order to identify reactions that act as flux bottlenecks in these strains. The expression of the genes corresponding to these bottleneck reactions was often found to be downregulated in the evolved strains relative to the wild-type strain. We also demonstrate the ability of the OMNI method to diagnose problems in E. coli strains engineered for metabolite overproduction that have not reached their predicted production potential. The OMNI method applied to flux data for evolved strains can be used to provide insights into mechanisms that limit the ability of microbial strains to evolve towards their predicted optimal growth phenotypes. When applied to industrial production strains, the OMNI method can also be used to suggest metabolic engineering strategies to improve byproduct secretion. In addition to these applications, the method should prove to be useful in general for reconstructing metabolic networks of ill-characterized microbial organisms based on limited amounts of experimental data

Costs and outcomes of noncardioembolic ischemic stroke in a managed care population

Nicole M Engel-Nitz1, Stephen D Sander2, Carolyn Harley3, Gabriel Gomez Rey1, Hemal Shah21Health Economic and Outcomes Research, i3 Innovus, Eden Prairie, MN, USA; 2Health Economic and Outcomes Research, Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Ridgefield, CT, USA; 3Health Economic and Outcomes Research, i3 Innovus, Palo Alto, CA, USAPurpose: To evaluate the clinical outcomes and incremental health care costs of ischemic stroke in a US managed care population.Patients and methods: A retrospective cohort analysis was done on patients (aged 18+ years) hospitalized with noncardioembolic ischemic stroke from January 1, 2002, through ­December 31, 2003, identified from commercial health plan administrative claims. New or recurrent stroke was based on history in the previous 12 months, with index date defined as first date of ­indication of stroke. A control group without stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) was matched (1:3) on age, sex, and geographic region, with an index date defined as the first ­medical claim during the patient identification period. Patients with atrial fibrillation or mitral value abnormalities were excluded. Ischemic stroke and control cohorts were compared on 4-year clinical outcomes and 1-year costs.Results: Of 2180 ischemic stroke patients, 1808 (82.9%) had new stroke and 372 (17.1%) had a recurrent stroke. Stroke patients had higher unadjusted rates of additional stroke, TIA, and fatal outcomes compared with the 6540 matched controls. Recurrent stroke patients had higher rates of adverse clinical outcomes compared with new stroke patients; costs attributed to recurrent stroke were also higher. Stroke patients were 2.4 times more likely to be hospitalized in follow-up compared with controls (hazard ratio [HR] 2.4, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.2, 2.6). Occurrence of stroke following discharge was 21 times more likely among patients with index stroke compared with controls (HR 21.0, 95% CI: 16.1, 27.3). Stroke was also predictive of death (HR 1.8, 95% CI: 1.3, 2.5). Controlling for covariates, stroke patients had significantly higher costs compared with control patients in the year following the index event.Conclusion: Noncardioembolic ischemic stroke patients had significantly poorer outcomes and higher costs compared with controls. Recurrent stroke appears to contribute substantially to these higher rates of adverse outcomes and costs.Keywords: burden of illness, stroke⁄cerebrovascular accident, cardiovascular disease, claims analysis, costs of care, health care outcome

Maximum Likelihood, Profile Likelihood, and Penalized Likelihood: A Primer

The method of maximum likelihood is widely used in epidemiology, yet many epidemiologists receive little or no education in the conceptual underpinnings of the approach. Here we provide a primer on maximum likelihood and some important extensions which have proven useful in epidemiologic research, and which reveal connections between maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. For a given data set and probability model, maximum likelihood finds values of the model parameters that give the observed data the highest probability. As with all inferential statistical methods, maximum likelihood is based on an assumed model and cannot account for bias sources that are not controlled by the model or the study design. Maximum likelihood is nonetheless popular, because it is computationally straightforward and intuitive and because maximum likelihood estimators have desirable large-sample properties in the (largely fictitious) case in which the model has been correctly specified. Here, we work through an example to illustrate the mechanics of maximum likelihood estimation and indicate how improvements can be made easily with commercial software. We then describe recent extensions and generalizations which are better suited to observational health research and which should arguably replace standard maximum likelihood as the default method

Rapid estimation of sugar release from winter wheat straw during bioethanol production using FTIR-photoacoustic spectroscopy

BACKGROUND: Complexity and high cost are the main limitations for high-throughput screening methods for the estimation of the sugar release from plant materials during bioethanol production. In addition, it is important that we improve our understanding of the mechanisms by which different chemical components are affecting the degradability of plant material. In this study, Fourier transform infrared photoacoustic spectroscopy (FTIR-PAS) was combined with advanced chemometrics to develop calibration models predicting the amount of sugars released after pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis of wheat straw during bioethanol production, and the spectra were analysed to identify components associated with recalcitrance. RESULTS: A total of 1122 wheat straw samples from nine different locations in Denmark and one location in the United Kingdom, spanning a large variation in genetic material and environmental conditions during growth, were analysed. The FTIR-PAS spectra of non-pretreated wheat straw were correlated with the measured sugar release, determined by a high-throughput pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis (HTPH) assay. A partial least square regression (PLSR) calibration model predicting the glucose and xylose release was developed. The interpretation of the regression coefficients revealed a positive correlation between the released glucose and xylose with easily hydrolysable compounds, such as amorphous cellulose and hemicellulose. Additionally, a negative correlation with crystalline cellulose and lignin, which inhibits cellulose and hemicellulose hydrolysis, was observed. CONCLUSIONS: FTIR-PAS was used as a reliable method for the rapid estimation of sugar release during bioethanol production. The spectra revealed that lignin inhibited the hydrolysis of polysaccharides into monomers, while the crystallinity of cellulose retarded its hydrolysis into glucose. Amorphous cellulose and xylans were found to contribute significantly to the released amounts of glucose and xylose, respectively. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13068-015-0267-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Functional significance of the emotion-related late positive potential

The late positive potential (LPP) is an event-related potential (ERP) component over visual cortical areas that is modulated by the emotional intensity of a stimulus. However, the functional significance of this neural modulation remains elusive. We conducted two experiments in which we studied the relation between LPP amplitude, subsequent perceptual sensitivity to a non-emotional stimulus (Experiment 1) and visual cortical excitability, as reflected by P1/N1 components evoked by this stimulus (Experiment 2). During the LPP modulation elicited by unpleasant stimuli, perceptual sensitivity was not affected. In contrast, we found some evidence for a decreased N1 amplitude during the LPP modulation, a decreased P1 amplitude on trials with a relatively large LPP, and consistent negative (but non-significant) across-subject correlations between the magnitudes of the LPP modulation and corresponding changes in d-prime or P1/N1 amplitude. The results provide preliminary evidence that the LPP reflects a global inhibition of activity in visual cortex, resulting in the selective survival of activity associated with the processing of the emotional stimulus

Is a motivational interviewing based lifestyle intervention for obese pregnant women across Europe implemented as planned? Process evaluation of the DALI study

Background: Process evaluation is an essential part of designing and assessing complex interventions. The vitamin D and lifestyle intervention study (DALI) study is testing different strategies to prevent development of gestational diabetes mellitus among European obese pregnant women with a body mass index ≥29kg/m2. The intervention includes guidance on physical activity and/or healthy eating by a lifestyle coach trained in motivational interviewing (MI). The aim of this study was to assess the process elements: reach, dose delivered, fidelity and satisfaction and to investigate whether these process elements were associated with changes in gestational weight gain (GWG). Methods: Data on reach, dose delivered, fidelity, and satisfaction among 144 participants were collected. Weekly recruitment reports, notes from meetings, coach logs and evaluation questionnaires (n=110) were consulted. Fidelity of eight (out of twelve) lifestyle coach practitioners was assessed by analysing audio recorded counselling sessions using the MI treatment integrity scale. Furthermore, associations between process elements and GWG were assessed with linear regression analyses. Results: A total of 20% of the possible study population (reach) was included in this analysis. On average 4.0 (of the intended 5) face-to-face sessions were delivered. Mean MI fidelity almost reached \u27expert opinion\u27 threshold for the global scores, but was below \u27beginning proficiency\u27 for the behavioural counts. High variability in quality of MI between practitioners was identified. Participants were highly satisfied with the intervention, the lifestyle coach and the intervention materials. No significant associations were found between process elements and GWG. Conclusion: Overall, the intervention was well delivered and received by the study population, but did not comply with all the principles of MI. Ensuring audio recording of lifestyle sessions throughout the study would facilitate provision of individualized feedback to improve MI skills. A larger sample size is needed to confirm the lack of association between process elements and GWG. Trial registration: ISRCTN registry: ISRCTN70595832 ; Registered 12 December 2011