Experimental Investigation into the Influence of Backfill Types on the Vibro-acoustic Characteristics of Leaks in MDPE Pipe

Pipe leak location estimates are commonly conducted using Vibro-Acoustic Emission (VAE) based methods, usually using accelerometers or hydrophones. Successful estimation of a leak's location is dependent on a number of factors, including the speed of sound, resonance, backfill, reflections from other sources, leak shape and size. However, despite some investigation into some of the aforementioned factors, the influence of backfill type on a leak's VAE signal has still not been experimentally quantified. A limited number of studies have attempted to quantify the effects of backfill. However, all of these studies couple other variables which could be equally responsible for their observed changes in leak signal. There have been no controlled studies where one variable can be directly compared to one another (i.e. all variables remain constant, only changing backfill type). The aim of this paper is to better characterise the influence of backfill on a leak's VAE signal by individually isolating all variables. For the first time, this paper demonstrates the influence of backfill on leak VAE signal by keeping all other variables consistent. It was found that the backfill type had a strong influence on the frequency and amplitude of leak signals, which is likely to have a significant impact on the accuracy of leak location estimates

A Machine Learning Algorithm to Identify Patients at Risk of Unplanned Subsequent Surgery After Intramedullary Nailing for Tibial Shaft Fractures

Objectives: In the SPRINT trial, 18% of patients with a tibial shaft fracture (TSF) treated with intramedullary nailing (IMN) had one or more unplanned subsequent surgical procedures. It is clinically relevant for surgeon and patient to anticipate unplanned secondary procedures, other than operations that can be readily expected such as reconstructive procedures for soft tissue defects. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop a machine learning (ML) prediction model using the SPRINT data that can give individual patients and their care team an estimate of their particular probability of an unplanned second surgery. Methods: Patients from the SPRINT trial with unilateral TSFs were randomly divided into a training set (80%) and test set (20%). Five ML algorithms were trained in recognizing patterns associated with subsequent surgery in the training set based on a subset of variables identified by random forest algorithms. Performance of each ML algorithm was evaluated and compared based on (1) area under the ROC curve, (2) calibration slope and intercept, and (3) the Brier score. Results: Total data set comprised 1198 patients, of whom 214 patients (18%) underwent subsequent surgery. Seven variables were used to train ML algorithms: (1) Gustilo-Anderson classification, (2) Tscherne classification, (3) fracture location, (4) fracture gap, (5) polytrauma, (6) injury mechanism, and (7) OTA/AO classification. The best-performing ML algorithm had an area under the ROC curve, calibration slope, calibration intercept, and the Brier score of 0.766, 0.954, -0.002, and 0.120 in the training set and 0.773, 0.922, 0, and 0.119 in the test set, respectively. Conclusions: An ML algorithm was developed to predict the probability of subsequent surgery after IMN for TSFs. This ML algorithm may assist surgeons to inform patients about the probability of subsequent surgery and might help to identify patients who need a different perioperative plan or a more intensive approach.Orthopaedics, Trauma Surgery and Rehabilitatio