The Impact of Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Taiwan and South Korea on the Red Meat Industries in Canada and the United States

In addition to trade liberalization, other factors have contributed to the strong growth of red meat production in Canada since the end of the 1980s. In particular, the outbreaks of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in Taiwan and in South Korea eliminated two competitors in the Japanese market. This reduction in supply caused an increase in the price of hogs in the United States and Canada of 2.5% and 3% respectively during the 1997 to 2007 period. The higher price stimulated Canadian production by an average of 5%, and by 2% in the United States. Annual agricultural farm receipts from the hog market were greater by an average of $CD 276 million (9$CD 3 billion over the 11 years. Moreover, the value added in the red meat processing industry was on average $CD 158 million higher (5$CD 1.7 billion. Finally, the value of exports of the red meat supply chain is on average $CD 239 million higher (4.4$CD 2.6 billion during these 11 years.red meats, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, foot and mouth disease, economic impact, pork, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries,

Medium Term Outlook for Canadian Agriculture - International and Domestic Markets

The purpose of this document is to describe the features of the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) Medium Term Outlook for Canadian Agriculture (previously entitled Medium Term Policy Baseline) covering the period 2008 to 2018. The outlook is an attempt to outline a plausible future of the international and domestic agri-food sectors. It serves as a benchmark for discussion and scenario analysis. The outlook makes specific assumptions and outlines their implications. Since it assumes that policies remain unchanged from existing legislation, the outlook is not a forecast of future events. The medium term assumptions used and published by the OECD/FAO in the Agricultural Outlook are by in large maintained in the AAFC's outlook but updated to reflect short term price forecasts produced and released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in November 2008. The November 2008 macroeconomic forecast published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was also incorporated in the outlook and in particular a 32% reduction in the crude oil price in 2009. AAFC assumed that 3 years will be necessary before the crude oil price returns to the level used in the OECD/FAO medium term outlook. The world prices generated by this process combined with the macro-economic forecast for Canada published by the Conference Board in December 2008 are the key inputs used to produce the Canadian agricultural markets outlook. The key sectors covered are grains, oilseeds and products, special crops, bio-fuels, beef/cattle, pork/hogs, milk and dairy products, chicken, turkey and eggs.Outlook, Agriculture, Cereals, Oilseeds, Bio-fuels, Livestock, Red meats, Milk, Dairy products, Chicken, Turkey, Eggs, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries,

Medium Term Outlook for Canadian Agriculture

The purpose of this document is to describe the features of the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) Medium Term Outlook for Canadian Agriculture (previously entitled Medium Term Policy Baseline) covering the period 2007 to 2017. The outlook is an attempt to outline a plausible future of the international and domestic agri-food sectors. It serves as a benchmark for discussion and scenario analysis. The outlook makes specific assumptions and outlines their implications. Since it assumes that policies remain unchanged from existing legislation, the outlook is not a forecast of future events. The medium term assumptions used and published by the OECD/FAO in the Agricultural Outlook 2007-2016 are by in large maintained in the AAFC's international agricultural markets outlook but updated to reflect short term price forecasts produced and released by USDA in October 2007. The world prices generated by this process combined with the macro-economic forecast for Canada published by the Conference Board in September 2007 are the key inputs used to produce the Canadian agricultural markets outlook. The key sectors covered are grains, oilseeds and products, special crops, bio-fuels, beef/cattle, pork/hogs, milk and dairy products, chicken, turkey and eggsOutlook, agriculture, cereals, oilseeds, bio-fuels, livestock, red meats, milk, dairy products, chicken, turkey, eggs, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries,

On the Applicability of the Sieve Bootstrap in Time series Panels

In this paper we investigate the validity of the univariate autoregressive sieve bootstrap appliedto time series panels characterized by general forms of cross-sectional dependence, including butnot restricted to cointegration. Using the final equations approach we show that while it ispossible to write such a panel as a collection of infinite order autoregressive equations, theinnovations of these equations are not vector white noise. This causes the univariateautoregressive sieve bootstrap to be invalid in such panels. We illustrate this result with asmall numerical example using a simple bivariate system for which the sieve bootstrap is invalid,and show that the extent of the invalidity depends on the value of specific parameters. We alsoshow that Monte Carlo simulations in small samples can be misleading about the validity of theunivariate autoregressive sieve bootstrap. The results in this paper serve as a warning about thepractical use of the autoregressive sieve bootstrap in panels where cross-sectional dependence ofgeneral from may be present.econometrics;

Autoregressive Wild Bootstrap Inference for Nonparametric Trends

In this paper we propose an autoregressive wild bootstrap method to construct confidence bands around a smooth deterministic trend. The bootstrap method is easy to implement and does not require any adjustments in the presence of missing data, which makes it particularly suitable for climatological applications. We establish the asymptotic validity of the bootstrap method for both pointwise and simultaneous confidence bands under general conditions, allowing for general patterns of missing data, serial dependence and heteroskedasticity. The finite sample properties of the method are studied in a simulation study. We use the method to study the evolution of trends in daily measurements of atmospheric ethane obtained from a weather station in the Swiss Alps, where the method can easily deal with the many missing observations due to adverse weather conditions

Medium Term Outlook for Canadian Agriculture International and Domestic Markets

The purpose of this document is to describe the features of the MTO covering the period 2010 to 2020. The MTO is a plausible future for the international and domestic agri-food sectors based on current policies in Canada and other countries as of Fall 2010. It serves as a benchmark for discussion and scenario analysis. The outlook makes specific assumptions and outlines their implications. Since it assumes that policies remain unchanged from existing legislation, the outlook is not a forecast of future events. In particular there are no assumptions made regarding the outcome of the Doha round of trade negotiations. It also assumes no impact from climate change and from policy to mitigate climate change nor significant animal disease outbreaks or unusual climatic conditions over the period of the outlook. The starting point of the MTO is world agricultural commodities price projection based on the OECD/FAO Agricultural Outlook for 2009/2019 adjusted with more recent information. The Canadian macro-economic forecasts are from the Conference Board of Canada outlook published in September 2010. In addition, short-term price forecasts have been updated using United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projections released in October 2010. For example, droughts in some southern hemisphere countries and China as well as the foot and mouth outbreak in South Korea have not been taken into account.Outlook, Agriculture, Cereals, Oilseeds, Bio-fuels, Livestock, Red meats, Milk, Dairy products, Chicken, Turkey, Eggs, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries,

Economic Analysis of the Liberalization of Red Meat Markets in the Pacific Region from 1988 to 2007

The liberalization of red meat (beef and pork) markets since 1988 is a good example of government action that has led to significant gains for the Canadian and American agri-food industries. Japan, South Korea and Mexico are the main countries that have liberalized their red meat markets since 1988. This industry has also benefited from the agreement between Canada and the United States. It has also made gain from the liberalization of the pork market in Australia and the Philippines, and the beef market in Indonesia. This analysis captures the impact on the price received by farmers as well as on Canadian production in the absence of these increased market access. The combination of lower prices and lower production would have caused annual average decreases in farm cash receipts drawn from the cattle and hog market equal to C$776 million and C$486 million, respectively, for a grand total of C$25.7 billion over this 20-year period (1988-2007) for the entire agriculture industry. Additionally, the value added of the red meat processing industry would have dropped by an average of C$432 million per year, for a total loss of C$8.6 billion. Finally, the value of exports of the red meat supply chain would have dropped by an average of C$1.044 billion per year, for a grand total of C$21 billion over this 20-year period.liberalization, benefits, red meats, pork, beef, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries,

Cross-Sectional Dependence Robust Block Bootstrap Panel Unit Root Tests

In this paper we consider the issue of unit root testing in cross-sectionally dependent panels. We consider panels that may be characterized by various forms of cross-sectionaldependence including (but not exclusive to) the popular common factor framework. Weconsider block bootstrap versions of the group-mean Im, Pesaran, and Shin (2003) and thepooled Levin, Lin, and Chu (2002) unit root coefficient DF-tests for panel data, originallyproposed for a setting of no cross-sectional dependence beyond a common time effect. Thetests, suited for testing for unit roots in the observed data, can be easily implemented asno specification or estimation of the dependence structure is required. Asymptotic propertiesof the tests are derived for T going to infinity and N finite. Asymptotic validity of thebootstrap tests is established in very general settings, including the presence of commonfactors and even cointegration across units. Properties under the alternative hypothesisare also considered. In a Monte Carlo simulation, the bootstrap tests are found to haverejection frequencies that are much closer to nominal size than the rejection frequenciesfor the corresponding asymptotic tests. The power properties of the bootstrap tests appearto be similar to those of the asymptotic tests.Economics (Jel: A)