Patterns of Passage into protected areas: drivers and outcomes of Fulani immigration, settlement and integration into the Kachia Grazing Reserve, Northwest Nigeria

Abstract Increasing land use and associated competition for natural resources in the wake of high human and livestock population pressures have been major challenges confronting pastoralists of West Africa. This is especially true in Nigeria where Fulani make up 4% of the national population and prevailing national insecurity issues are impacting on pastoral livelihoods, including violent conflicts over land and ethnic, religious and political disparities. This study examined the dynamics of immigration within the Kachia Grazing Reserve (KGR), an exclusively Fulani pastoralist community in Kaduna State, northwest Nigeria, prompted by concerns from both the farming communities and the authorities about mounting pressure on existing limited resources, particularly in regard to availability of cattle grazing resources. Drawing from a household census conducted in 2011 and employing a range of qualitative methods (focus group discussions and key informant interviews), this study explored the drivers and consequences of immigration and subsequent integration within the KGR community. The study revealed two types of immigration: a steady trickle of pastoralists migrating to the reserve to settle and acquire land, secure from the stresses of competition from cultivators, and the sudden influx of internally displaced persons fleeing violent clashes in their areas of origin. Population pressure within the reserve has risen steadily over the past three decades, such that it is severely overgrazed (as evidenced by reports from the KGR community that the animals run short of pasture even during the wet season due to desertification and the spread of non-edible weeds). The newer immigrants, fleeing conflict, tended to arrive in the reserve with significantly larger herds than those kept by established residents. Pastoralists in the reserve have been forced back into the practice of seasonal transhumance in both wet and dry seasons to support their herds, with all the attendant risks of theft, clashes with cultivators and increased disease transmission

Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less sensitive to climatic variation

The phenology of many species shows strong sensitivity to climate change; however, with few large scale intra-specific studies it is unclear how such sensitivity varies over a species' range. We document large intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity to temperature using laying date information from 67 populations of two co-familial European songbirds, the great tit (Parus major) and blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus), covering a large part of their breeding range. Populations inhabiting deciduous habitats showed stronger phenological sensitivity than those in evergreen and mixed habitats. However, populations with higher sensitivity tended to have experienced less rapid change in climate over the past decades, such that populations with high phenological sensitivity will not necessarily exhibit the strongest phenological advancement. Our results show that to effectively assess the impact of climate change on phenology across a species' range it will be necessary to account for intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity, climate change exposure, and the ecological characteristics of a population.Intra-specific variations may contribute to heterogeneous responses to climate change across a species' range. Here, the authors investigate the phenology of two bird species across their breeding ranges, and find that their sensitivity to temperature is uncoupled from exposure to climate change

Wealth, household heterogeneity and livelihood diversification of Fulani pastoralists in the Kachia Grazing Reserve, northern Nigeria, during a period of social transition

A mixed methods study was undertaken in the Kachia Grazing Reserve of northern Nigeria. Surveys in March, June and October 2011 included focus group discussions, key informant and in-depth household interviews, concerning livelihood practices, animal health, ownership, and productivity. In May 2011, 249 Fulani families fleeing post-election violence entered the reserve with their livestock, increasing the number of households by one third.Despite being settled within a grazing reserve, over half of households sent all their cattle away on seasonal transhumance and another third sent some away. Cattle accounted for 96% of total tropical livestock units (TLU), of which 26% were cattle kept permanently outside the reserve. While all households cited livestock as their main source of income, 90% grew crops and 55% derived income from off-farm activities. A multiple correspondence analysis showed that for each extra member of a household its TLU value increased by 2.0 [95% CI, 1.4-2.7], while for each additional marriage its TLU increased by 15.7 [95% CI, 7.1-24.3]. A strong association was also observed between small herds, small households with only one wife, alongside marked geographical wealth differences within the reserve. New immigrant families had larger household sizes (33) and livestock holdings (122 TLU) than old settlers (22 people and 67 TLU). Prior to the mass immigration, the distribution of TLU per person was unimodal: 41% of households were classified as 'poor' and 27% as 'medium', whereas post-immigration it was bi-modal, with 26% classified as 'very poor' and 28% as 'medium'.While cattle remain the principal source of Fulani income and wealth, the inhabitants of Kachia Grazing Reserve have diversified their livelihood strategies to respond to changing circumstances and stress, especially the limited availability of grazing within the reserve and political insecurity outside, resulting in continued transhumance, the maintenance of smaller livestock holdings and pushing households into poverty

Interspecific variation in the relationship between clutch size, laying date and intensity of urbanization in four species of hole-nesting birds

The increase in size of human populations in urban and agricultural areas has resulted in considerable habitat conversion globally. Such anthropogenic areas have specific environmental characteristics, which influence the physiology, life history, and population dynamics of plants and animals. For example, the date of bud burst is advanced in urban compared to nearby natural areas. In some birds, breeding success is determined by synchrony between timing of breeding and peak food abundance. Pertinently, caterpillars are an important food source for the nestlings of many bird species, and their abundance is influenced by environmental factors such as temperature and date of bud burst. Higher temperatures and advanced date of bud burst in urban areas could advance peak caterpillar abundance and thus affect breeding phenology of birds. In order to test whether laying date advance and clutch sizes decrease with the intensity of urbanization, we analyzed the timing of breeding and clutch size in relation to intensity of urbanization as a measure of human impact in 199 nest box plots across Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East (i.e., the Western Palearctic) for four species of hole-nesters: blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus), great tits (Parus major), collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis), and pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca). Meanwhile, we estimated the intensity of urbanization as the density of buildings surrounding study plots measured on orthophotographs. For the four study species, the intensity of urbanization was not correlated with laying date. Clutch size in blue and great tits does not seem affected by the intensity of urbanization, while in collared and pied flycatchers it decreased with increasing intensity of urbanization. This is the first large-scale study showing a species-specific major correlation between intensity of urbanization and the ecology of breeding. The underlying mechanisms for the relationships between life history and urbanization remain to be determined. We propose that effects of food abundance or quality, temperature, noise, pollution, or disturbance by humans may on their own or in combination affect laying date and/or clutch size

18 Fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography in the prediction of relapse in patients with high-risk, clinical stage I nonseminomatous germ cell tumors: preliminary report of MRC trial TE22 - the NCRI testis tumour clinical study group

Purpose: There are several management options for patients with clinical stage I ( CS1) nonseminomatous germ cell tumors (NSGCT); this study examined whether an (18)fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography ( (18)FDG PET) scan could identify patients without occult metastatic disease for whom surveillance is an attractive option. Methods: High-risk ( lymphovascular invasion positive) patients with CS1 NSGCT underwent 18FDG PET scanning within 8 weeks of orchidectomy or marker normalization. PET-positive patients went off study; PET-negative patients were observed on a surveillance program. The primary outcome measure was the 2-year relapse-free rate ( RFR) in patients with a negative PET scan ( the negative predictive value). Assuming an RFR of 90% to exclude an RFR less than 80% with approximately 90% power, 100 PET-negative patients were required; 135 scanned patients were anticipated. Results: Patients were registered between May 2002 and January 2005, when the trial was stopped by the independent data monitoring committee due to an unacceptably high relapse rate in the PET-negative patients. Of 116 registered patients, 111 underwent PET scans, and 88 ( 79%) were PET-negative ( 61% of preorchidectomy marker-negative patients v 88% of marker-positive patients; P = .002); 87 proceeded to surveillance, and one requested adjuvant chemotherapy. With a median follow-up of 12 months, 33 of 87 patients on surveillance relapsed ( 1-year RFR, 63%; 90% CI, 54% to 72%). Conclusion: Though PET identified some patients with disease not detected by computed tomography scan, the relapse rate among PET negative patients remains high. The results show that 18FDG PET scanning is not sufficiently sensitive to identify patients at low risk of relapse in this setting

How diagrams can support syllogistic reasoning: an experimental study

This paper explores the question of what makes diagrammatic representa- tions effective for human logical reasoning, focusing on how Euler diagrams support syllogistic reasoning. It is widely held that diagrammatic representations aid intuitive understanding of logical reasoning. In the psychological literature, however, it is still controversial whether and how Euler diagrams can aid untrained people to success- fully conduct logical reasoning such as set-theoretic and syllogistic reasoning. To challenge the negative view, we build on the findings of modern diagrammatic logic and introduce an Euler-style diagrammatic representation system that is designed to avoid problems inherent to a traditional version of Euler diagrams. It is hypothesized that Euler diagrams are effective not only in interpreting sentential premises but also in reasoning about semantic structures implicit in given sentences. To test the hypothesis, we compared Euler diagrams with other types of diagrams having different syntactic or semantic properties. Experiment compared the difference in performance between syllogistic reasoning with Euler diagrams and Venn diagrams. Additional analysis examined the case of a linear variant of Euler diagrams, in which set-relationships are represented by one-dimensional lines. The experimental results provide evidence supporting our hypothesis. It is argued that the efficacy of diagrams in supporting syllo- gistic reasoning crucially depends on the way they represent the relational information contained in categorical sentences

Patterns of nest placement in a population of marsh tits Poecile palustris

The factors influencing nest placement by territorial birds are not fully understood, including the roles played by habitat, conspecific attraction and female experience of a previous nesting location. We used 7 years of Marsh Tit (Poecile palustris) nest-site and territory data, and high-resolution vegetation models derived from remote sensing, to investigate spatial patterns of nest placement with regard to previous female experience and age, conspecific attraction, and habitat in a woodland environment. We found no evidence for an effect of conspecific attraction or previous nest location on nest placement within the territory. However, first-year (FY) females placed nests in a random spatial pattern within their territories, and after first-year (AFY) females predominantly placed nests within the central parts of their territories, away from conspecifics. The core area of each breeding territory was centred on a region of comparatively taller overstorey and less understorey than other parts of the territory. Nest-sites were situated in localised areas of a similar structure, although absolute differences between selected and non-selected areas of the territory were not substantial. Both female age groups nested in areas of the territory where the overstorey contained relatively more Common Ash (Fraxinus excelsior) and Field Maple (Acer campestre), which may have been related to tree height, but there was no selection for English Oak (Quercus robur). We found no significant habitat differences between the territories of FY and AFY females that explained their differing patterns of nest placement