Issues of scale for environmental indicators

The value of environmental indicators largely depends upon the spatial and temporal scale that they represent. Environmental indicators are dependent upon data availability and also upon the scale for which statements are required. As these may not match, changes in scales may be necessary. In this paper a geostatistical approach to analyse quantitative environmental indicators has been used. Scales, defined in terms of resolution and procedures, are presented to translate data from one scale to another: upscaling to change from high resolution data towards a low resolution, and downscaling for the inverse process. The study is illustrated with three environmental indicators. The first concerns heavy metals in the environment, where the zinc content is used as the indicator. Initially, data were present at a 1km2 resolution, and were downscaled to 1m2 resolution. High resolution data collected later showed a reasonable correspondence with the downscaled data. Available covariates were also used. The second example is from the Rothamsted’s long-term experiments. Changes in scale are illustrated by simulating reduced data sets from the full data set on grass cuts. A simple regression model related the yield from these condcut to that of the first cut in the cropping season. Reducing data availability (upscaling) resulted in poor estimates of the regression coefficients. The final example is on nitrate surpluses on Danish farms. Data at the field level are upscaled to the farm level, and the dispersion variance indicates differences between different farms. Geostatistical methods were useful to define, change and determine the most appropriate scales for environmental variables in space and in time

Breaking the habit: measuring and predicting departures from routine in individual human mobility

Researchers studying daily life mobility patterns have recently shown that humans are typically highly predictable in their movements. However, no existing work has examined the boundaries of this predictability, where human behaviour transitions temporarily from routine patterns to highly unpredictable states. To address this shortcoming, we tackle two interrelated challenges. First, we develop a novel information-theoretic metric, called instantaneous entropy, to analyse an individual’s mobility patterns and identify temporary departures from routine. Second, to predict such departures in the future, we propose the first Bayesian framework that explicitly models breaks from routine, showing that it outperforms current state-of-the-art predictor

The timing of maternal depressive symptoms and child cognitive development: a longitudinal study.

Background: Maternal depression is known to be associated with impairments in child cognitive development, although the effect of timing of exposure to maternal depression is unclear. Methods: Data collected for the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, a longitudinal study beginning in pregnancy, included self-report measures of maternal depression the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, completed on 6 occasions up to 3 years of age, and IQ of the index child (WISC) measured at aged 8 years. We used these data to assign women to 8 groups according to whether depression occurred in the antenatal, postnatal, preschool period, any combination of these times, or not at all. We compared a model comprising all patterns of depression (saturated model) with models nested within this to test whether there is a relationship between depression and child cognitive development and, if so, whether there is a sensitive period. We then investigated the relationship with child IQ for each model, following adjustment for confounders. Results: Six thousand seven hundred and thirty-five of 13,615 children from singleton births (49.5%, of eligible core sample) attended a research clinic at 8 years and completed a WISC with a score ≥ 70. A total of 5,029 mothers of these children had completed mood assessments over the 3 time periods. In unadjusted analyses, all three sensitive period models were as good as the saturated model, as was an accumulation model. Of the sensitive period models, only that for antenatal exposure was a consistently better fit than the accumulation model. After multiple imputation for missing data (to n = 6,735), there was no effect of postnatal depression on child IQ independent of depression at other times [-0.19 IQ points, 95% confidence interval (CI) -1.5 to 1.1 points]. There was an effect of antenatal depression (-3.19 IQ points, 95% CI: -4.33 to -2.06) which attenuated following adjustment (-0.64 IQ points, 95% CI: -1.68 to 0.40). Conclusions: The postnatal period is not a sensitive one for the effect of maternal depression on child cognitive development. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry

The assessment and treatment of panic disorder in general practice

Panic disorder (PD) is an anxiety disorder that affects many South Africans. If undiagnosed or mismanaged, this condition may impact profoundly on an individual's functioning and quality of life. At the primary level, the assessment of panic attacks requires consideration of a number of differential diagnoses. General practitioners also play an invaluable role in the acute and long-term care and appropriate referral of individuals with PD. This article provides an overview of PD in general practice and includes a guideline for case identification and therapeutic options

Research review: young people leaving care

This paper reviews the international research on young people leaving care. Set in the context of a social exclusion framework, it explores young people's accelerated and compressed transitions to adulthood, and discusses the development and classification of leaving care services in responding to their needs. It then considers the evidence from outcome studies and argues that adopting a resilience framework suggests that young people leaving care may fall into three groups: young people 'moving on', 'survivors' and 'victims'. In concluding, it argues that these three pathways are associated with the quality of care young people receive, their transitions from care and the support they receive after care

Making a home, finding a job: investigating early housing and employment outcomes for young people leaving care

This paper presents findings from a new study of outcomes for young people leaving care funded by the Department for Education and Skills. It reports findings for a sample of 106 young people in relation to progress made in housing and employment some 12-15 months after leaving care. The generally poor employment outcomes of care leavers are acknowledged, but ingredients that make for success are also highlighted, including the value of settled care and post-care careers, sound career planning and, significantly, the value of delaying young people's transitions from care. Early career paths also interconnect with how young people fare in housing, in developing life skills and with other problems in their lives after leaving care. Housing outcomes were more encouraging and predominantly shaped by events after leaving care, and faring well in housing was the factor most closely associated with positive mental well-being in young people. Some groups that are at risk of faring badly are identified, including young people with mental-health problems, young people with persistent offending or substance misuse problems and, in some respects, young disabled people. The implications of these findings for leaving care services are considered

Solar Oscillations and Convection: II. Excitation of Radial Oscillations

Solar p-mode oscillations are excited by the work of stochastic, non-adiabatic, pressure fluctuations on the compressive modes. We evaluate the expression for the radial mode excitation rate derived by Nordlund and Stein (Paper I) using numerical simulations of near surface solar convection. We first apply this expression to the three radial modes of the simulation and obtain good agreement between the predicted excitation rate and the actual mode damping rates as determined from their energies and the widths of their resolved spectral profiles. We then apply this expression for the mode excitation rate to the solar modes and obtain excellent agreement with the low l damping rates determined from GOLF data. Excitation occurs close to the surface, mainly in the intergranular lanes and near the boundaries of granules (where turbulence and radiative cooling are large). The non-adiabatic pressure fluctuations near the surface are produced by small instantaneous local imbalances between the divergence of the radiative and convective fluxes near the solar surface. Below the surface, the non-adiabatic pressure fluctuations are produced primarily by turbulent pressure fluctuations (Reynolds stresses). The frequency dependence of the mode excitation is due to effects of the mode structure and the pressure fluctuation spectrum. Excitation is small at low frequencies due to mode properties -- the mode compression decreases and the mode mass increases at low frequency. Excitation is small at high frequencies due to the pressure fluctuation spectrum -- pressure fluctuations become small at high frequencies because they are due to convection which is a long time scale phenomena compared to the dominant p-mode periods.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ (scheduled for Dec 10, 2000 issue). 17 pages, 27 figures, some with reduced resolution -- high resolution versions available at http://www.astro.ku.dk/~aake/astro-ph/0008048

Numerical MHD Simulations of Solar Magnetoconvection and Oscillations in Inclined Magnetic Field Regions

The sunspot penumbra is a transition zone between the strong vertical magnetic field area (sunspot umbra) and the quiet Sun. The penumbra has a fine filamentary structure that is characterized by magnetic field lines inclined toward the surface. Numerical simulations of solar convection in inclined magnetic field regions have provided an explanation of the filamentary structure and the Evershed outflow in the penumbra. In this paper, we use radiative MHD simulations to investigate the influence of the magnetic field inclination on the power spectrum of vertical velocity oscillations. The results reveal a strong shift of the resonance mode peaks to higher frequencies in the case of a highly inclined magnetic field. The frequency shift for the inclined field is significantly greater than that in vertical field regions of similar strength. This is consistent with the behavior of fast MHD waves.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures, Solar Physics (in press