Forecast quality and simple instrument rules: a real-time data approach

We start from the assertion that a useful monetary policy design should be founded on more realistic assumptions about what policymakers can know at the time when policy decisions have to be made. Since the Taylor rule – if used as an operational device - implies a forward looking behaviour, we analyze the reliability of the input information. We investigate the forecasting performance of OECD projections for GDP growth rates and inflation. We diagnose a much better forecasting record for inflation rates compared to GDP growth rates, which for most countries are almost uninformative at the time a Taylor rule should sensibly be applied. Using this data set, we find significant differences between Taylor rules estimated over revised data compared to real-time data. There is evidence that monetary policy seems to react more actively in real time than rules estimated over revised data suggest. Given the evidence of systematic errors in OECD forecasts, in a next step we attempt to correct for these forecast biases and check to which extent this can lower the errors in interest rate policy setting. An ex-ante simulation for the years 1991 to 2001 supports the proposal that correcting for forecast errors and biases based on an error model can lower the resulting policy error in interest rate setting for most countries under consideration. In addition we investigate to what extent structural changes in the policy reaction behaviour can be handled with moving instead of expanding samples. Our results point out that the information set available needs a careful examination when applied to instrument rules like those of the Taylor type. Limited forecast quality and significant data revisions recommend a more sophisticated handling of the dated information, for which we present an operational procedure that has the potential of reducing the risk of severe policy errors. --Monetary policy rules,economic forecasting,OECD,real-time data

Jet and hadron production in photon-photon collisions

Di-jet and inclusive charged hadron production cross-sections measured in photon-photon collisions by OPAL are compared to NLO pQCD calculations. Jet shapes measured in photon-photon scattering by OPAL, in deep-inelastic ep scattering by H1 and in photon-proton scattering by ZEUS are shown to be consistent in similar kinematic ranges. New results from TOPAZ on prompt photon production in photon-photon interactions are presented.Comment: 4 pages, submitted to Proceedings of DIS99, DESY-Zeuthen, Germany, April 199

Gemcitabine and taxanes in metastatic breast cancer: a systematic review

Incremental advances over the last two decades in the treatment of stage IV metastatic breast cancer (MBC) have resulted in significantly prolonging the average life expectancy. In 2008, the estimated 5-year relative survival rate for MBC is 27% which compares favorably to rates in stage IV lung (3%) and pancreatic cancers (1%). Despite these advances, MBC remains an incurable disease, often associated with many symptoms and a decreased quality of life (QoL). Therefore, therapy goals in the treatment of MBC include prolonging both progression-free survival and overall survival rates, while at the same time improving QoL by palliation of symptoms. Therefore, systemic chemotherapy ideally should not induce unnecessary toxicities. Once chemotherapy is indicated, a number of drugs and regimens are available but only a few offer both palliation of symptoms (responses to therapy) and overall survival benefit. The addition of novel biologic compounds to chemotherapy has been shown in phase III trials to improve all the above mentioned clinical outcomes in MBC. This review will discuss data supporting the use of gemcitabine/taxane combinations in the treatment of MBC

Recordings in an integrating central neuron provide a quick way for identifying appropriate anaesthetic use in fish

Abstract In animal husbandry, livestock industry and research facilities, anaesthetic agents are frequently used to moderate stressful intervention. For mammals and birds, procedures have been established to fine-tune anaesthesia according to the intervention. In ectothermic vertebrates, however, and despite changes in legislation and growing evidence on their cognitive abilities, the presently available information is insufficient to make similarly informed decisions. Here we suggest a straightforward way for rapidly filling this gap. By recording from a command neuron in the brain of fish whose crucial role requires it to integrate and process information from all sensory systems and to relay it to motor output pathways, the specific effects of candidate anaesthesia on central processing of sensory information can directly and efficiently be probed. Our approach allows a rapid and reliable way of deciding if and at which concentration a given anaesthetic affects the central nervous system and sensory processing. We employ our method to four anaesthetics commonly used in fish and demonstrate that our method quickly and with small numbers of animals provides the critical data for informed decisions on anaesthetic use

Ultrahigh-Energy Neutrino-Nucleon Cross Sections and Perturbative Unitarity

Unitarity relates the total cross section for neutrino-nucleon scattering to the neutrino-nucleon forward scattering amplitude. Assuming the validity of the perturbative expansion of the forward amplitude in the {\em weak} coupling constant, we derive a unitarity bound on the inelastic cross section. The inelastic cross section saturates this bound at a typical neutrino energy $E_\nu \simeq 10^8 {\rm GeV}$. This implies that calculations of the inelastic cross section that use current parton distribution functions and lowest order weak perturbation theory are unreliable above this energy.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figures, RevTeX, additional reference

Genetic variants in the NOD2/CARD15 gene are associated with early mortality in sepsis patients

Objective: Genetic variants in the NOD2/CARD15 gene resulting in adiminished capacity to activate NF-κB in response to bacterial cell wall products have been associated with Crohn's disease (CD). Recently, we found an association between the variant Leu1007fsinsC of the NOD2/CARD15 gene (SNP13) and asignificantly increased rate of transplant related mortality (TRM) due to intestinal and pulmonary complications in stem cell transplantation (SCT). To assess apossible contribution of variants in the NOD2/CARD15 gene to sepsis related mortality (SRM) we investigated 132 prospectively characterised, consecutive patients with sepsis. Design and patients: The three most common NOD2/CARD15 variants (Arg702Trp, Gly908Arg, and Leu1007fsinsC) were determined in 132 prospectively characterised patients with sepsis attended to three intensive care units at the University of Regensburg by Taqman PCR. NOD2/CARD15 genotype and major patients' characteristics were correlated with SRM. Results: Patient groups with and without NOD2/CARD15 variants did not differ in their clinical characteristics such as median age, gender, reason for admission or APACHE score; however, SRM (day30) was increased in patients with NOD2/CARD15 coding variants (42 vs. 31%) and was highest (57%) in 8 patients carrying the Leu1007fsinsC variant (p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis demonstrated the Leu1007fsinsC genetic variant as an independent risk factor for SRM. Conclusion: Our findings indicate amajor role of NOD2/CARD15 coding variants for SRM. This may be indicative for arole of impaired barrier function and bacterial translocation in the pathophysiology of early sepsis related deat