Yellow Fever in Africa: Estimating the Burden of Disease and Impact of Mass Vaccination from Outbreak and Serological Data

Background:Yellow fever is a vector-borne disease affecting humans and non-human primates in tropical areas of Africa and South America. While eradication is not feasible due to the wildlife reservoir, large scale vaccination activities in Africa during the 1940s to 1960s reduced yellow fever incidence for several decades. However, after a period of low vaccination coverage, yellow fever has resurged in the continent. Since 2006 there has been substantial funding for large preventive mass vaccination campaigns in the most affected countries in Africa to curb the rising burden of disease and control future outbreaks. Contemporary estimates of the yellow fever disease burden are lacking, and the present study aimed to update the previous estimates on the basis of more recent yellow fever occurrence data and improved estimation methods.Methods and Findings:Generalised linear regression models were fitted to a dataset of the locations of yellow fever outbreaks within the last 25 years to estimate the probability of outbreak reports across the endemic zone. Environmental variables and indicators for the surveillance quality in the affected countries were used as covariates. By comparing probabilities of outbreak reports estimated in the regression with the force of infection estimated for a limited set of locations for which serological surveys were available, the detection probability per case and the force of infection were estimated across the endemic zone.The yellow fever burden in Africa was estimated for the year 2013 as 130,000 (95% CI 51,000-380,000) cases with fever and jaundice or haemorrhage including 78,000 (95% CI 19,000-180,000) deaths, taking into account the current level of vaccination coverage. The impact of the recent mass vaccination campaigns was assessed by evaluating the difference between the estimates obtained for the current vaccination coverage and for a hypothetical scenario excluding these vaccination campaigns. Vaccination campaigns were estimated to have reduced the number of cases and deaths by 27% (95% CI 22%-31%) across the region, achieving up to an 82% reduction in countries targeted by these campaigns. A limitation of our study is the high level of uncertainty in our estimates arising from the sparseness of data available from both surveillance and serological surveys.Conclusions:With the estimation method presented here, spatial estimates of transmission intensity can be combined with vaccination coverage levels to evaluate the impact of past or proposed vaccination campaigns, thereby helping to allocate resources efficiently for yellow fever control. This method has been used by the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI Alliance) to estimate the potential impact of future vaccination campaigns.Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

Using Nutrition for Intervention and Prevention against Environmental Chemical Toxicity and Associated Diseases

BACKGROUND: Nutrition and lifestyle are well-defined modulators of chronic diseases. Poor dietary habits (such as high intake of processed foods rich in fat and low intake of fruits and vegetables), as well as a sedentary lifestyle clearly contribute to today’s compromised quality of life in the United States. It is becoming increasingly clear that nutrition can modulate the toxicity of environmental pollutants. OBJECTIVES: Our goal in this commentary is to discuss the recommendation that nutrition should be considered a necessary variable in the study of human disease associated with exposure to environmental pollutants. DISCUSSION: Certain diets can contribute to compromised health by being a source of exposure to environmental toxic pollutants. Many of these pollutants are fat soluble, and thus fatty foods often contain higher levels of persistent organics than does vegetable matter. Nutrition can dictate the lipid milieu, oxidative stress, and antioxidant status within cells. The modulation of these parameters by an individual’s nutritional status may have profound affects on biological processes, and in turn influence the effects of environmental pollutants to cause disease or dysfunction. For example, potential adverse health effects associated with exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls may increase as a result of ingestion of certain dietary fats, whereas ingestion of fruits and vegetables, rich in antioxidant and anti-inflammatory nutrients or bioactive compounds, may provide protection. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend that future directions in environmental health research explore this nutritional paradigm that incorporates a consideration of the relationships between nutrition and lifestyle, exposure to environmental toxicants, and disease. Nutritional interventions may provide the most sensible means to develop primary prevention strategies of diseases associated with many environmental toxic insults

Developing a digital intervention for cancer survivors: an evidence-, theory- and person-based approach

This paper illustrates a rigorous approach to developing digital interventions using an evidence-, theory- and person-based approach. Intervention planning included a rapid scoping review which identified cancer survivors’ needs, including barriers and facilitators to intervention success. Review evidence (N=49 papers) informed the intervention’s Guiding Principles, theory-based behavioural analysis and logic model. The intervention was optimised based on feedback on a prototype intervention through interviews (N=96) with cancer survivors and focus groups with NHS staff and cancer charity workers (N=31). Interviews with cancer survivors highlighted barriers to engagement, such as concerns about physical activity worsening fatigue. Focus groups highlighted concerns about support appointment length and how to support distressed participants. Feedback informed intervention modifications, to maximise acceptability, feasibility and likelihood of behaviour change. Our systematic method for understanding user views enabled us to anticipate and address important barriers to engagement. This methodology may be useful to others developing digital interventions

From working collections to the World Germplasm Project: agricultural modernization and genetic conservation at the Rockefeller Foundation

This paper charts the history of the Rockefeller Foundation’s participation in the collection and long-term preservation of genetic diversity in crop plants from the 1940s through the 1970s. In the decades following the launch of its agricultural program in Mexico in 1943, the Rockefeller Foundation figured prominently in the creation of world collections of key economic crops. Through the efforts of its administrators and staff, the foundation subsequently parlayed this experience into a leadership role in international efforts to conserve so-called plant genetic resources. Previous accounts of the Rockefeller Foundation’s interventions in international agricultural development have focused on the outcomes prioritized by foundation staff and administrators as they launched assistance programs and especially their characterization of the peoples and ‘‘problems’’ they encountered abroad. This paper highlights instead how foundation administrators and staff responded to a newly emergent international agricultural concern—the loss of crop genetic diversity. Charting the foundation’s responses to this concern, which developed only after agricultural modernization had begun and was understood to be produced by the successes of the foundation’s own agricultural assistance programs, allows for greater interrogation of how the foundation understood and projected its central position in international agricultural research activities by the 1970s.Research for this article was supported in part by a grant-in-aid from the Rockefeller Archive Center

Factor structure and validity of the shoulder pain and disability index in a population-based study of people with shoulder symptoms

Background: The Shoulder Pain and Disability Index (SPADI) is a self-administered questionnaire that aims to measure pain and disability associated with shoulder disease. The aim of the present study was to investigate the construct validity and factor structure of the SPADI in a population-based study of patients with self-reported chronic shoulder symptoms. Methods: The North West Adelaide Health Study is a representative longitudinal cohort study of people aged 18 years and over. The original sample was randomly selected and recruited by telephone interview. Overall, 3 206 participants returned to the clinic during the second stage (2004-2006) and were asked to report whether they had pain, aching or stiffness on most days in either of their shoulders. Data was also collected on body mass index and shoulder range of motion (ROM) and demographic factors. The SPADI (numeric rating scale) was administered to participants with shoulder symptoms. Principal components factor analysis, with varimax rotation of factor loadings, was used to assess subscale structure of SPADI. Correlations between the SPADI, shoulder ROM and SF-36 were performed. Results: Overall, 22.3% of participants indicated that they had pain, aching or stiffness in either of their shoulders. SPADI results were available for 588 of participants with current shoulder symptoms. The internal consistency of the SPADI subscales were high (Cronbach's alpha > 0.92). Two factors, explaining 61.4% of the total variance were extracted by factor analysis. These were interpreted as disability and pain respectively. There was a strong negative correlation between SPADI disability subscale scores and shoulder range of motion. SPADI disability, but not pain, subscale scores were correlated with age. Conclusions: The SPADI is a valid measure to assess pain and disability in people with shoulder pain in a population-based study. In this setting, the SPADI had a bidimensional structure with both pain and disability subscales.Catherine L Hill, Susan Lester, Anne W Taylor, Michael E Shanahan, Tiffany K Gil

Loss of function NFKB1 variants are the most common monogenic cause of CVID in Europeans

BACKGROUND: The genetic etiology of primary immunodeficiency disease (PID) carries prognostic information. OBJECTIVE: We conducted a whole-genome sequencing study assessing a large proportion of the NIHR-BioResource - Rare Disease cohort. METHODS: In the predominantly European study population of principally sporadic unrelated PID cases (n=846), a novel Bayesian method identified NFKB1 as one most strongly associated with PID, and the association was explained by 16 novel heterozygous truncating, missense and gene deletion variants. This accounted for 4% of common variable immunodeficiency (CVID) cases (n=390) in the cohort. Amino-acid substitutions predicted to be pathogenic were assessed by analysis of structural protein data. Immunophenotyping, immunoblotting and ex vivo stimulation of lymphocytes determined the functional effects of these variants. Detailed clinical and pedigree information was collected for genotype-phenotype co-segregation analyses. RESULTS: Both sporadic and familial cases demonstrated evidence of the non-infective complications of CVID, including massive lymphadenopathy (24%), unexplained splenomegaly (48%) and autoimmune disease (48%), features prior studies correlate with worse clinical prognosis. Although partial penetrance of clinical symptoms was noted in certain pedigrees, all carriers have a deficiency in B lymphocyte differentiation. Detailed assessment of B lymphocyte numbers, phenotype and function identifies the presence of a raised CD21lowB cell population: combined with identification of the disease-causing variant, this distinguishes between healthy individuals, asymptomatic carriers and clinically affected cases. CONCLUSION: We show that heterozygous loss-of-function variants in NFKB1 are the most common known monogenic cause of CVID that results in a temporally progressive defect in the formation of immunoglobulin-producing B cells

Effect of yeast culture on milk production and metabolic and reproductive performance of early lactation dairy cows

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The main objective of this study was to estimate the effect of supplementation with <it>Saccaromyces cerevisiae (SC</it>) (Yea-Sacc^®1026) on milk production, metabolic parameters and the resumption of ovarian activity in early lactation dairy cows.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The experiment was conducted during 2005/2006 in a commercial tied-house farm with an average of 200 milking Estonian Holstein Friesian cows. The late pregnant multiparous cows (n = 46) were randomly divided into two groups; one group received 10 g yeast culture from two weeks before to 14 weeks after calving. The groups were fed a total mixed ration with silages and concentrates. Milk recording data and blood samples for plasma metabolites were taken. Resumption of luteal activity was determined using milk progesterone (P₄) measurements. Uterine bacteriology and ovarian ultrasonography (US) were performed and body condition scores (BCS) and clinical disease occurrences were recorded. For analysis, the statistical software Stata 9.2 and R were used to compute Cox proportional hazard and linear mixed models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The average milk production per cow did not differ between the groups (32.7 ± 6.4 vs 30.7 ± 5.3 kg/day in the SC and control groups respectively), but the production of milk fat (<it>P </it>< 0.001) and milk protein (<it>P </it>< 0.001) were higher in the SC group. There was no effect of treatment on BCS. The analysis of energy-related metabolites in early lactation showed no significant differences between the groups. In both groups higher levels of β-hydroxybutyrate (BHB) appeared from days 14 to 28 after parturition and the concentration of non-esterfied fatty acid (NEFA) was higher from days 1–7 post partum (PP). According to US and P₄results, all cows in both groups ovulated during the experimental period. The resumption of ovarian activity (first ovulations) and time required for elimination of bacteria from the uterus did not differ between the groups.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Supplementation with SC had an effect on milk protein and fat production, but did not influence the milk yield. No effects on PP metabolic status, bacterial elimination from the uterus nor the resumption of ovarian activity were found.</p