Blowin\u27 in the wind: Short-term weather and belief in anthropogenic climate change.

Abstract A series of polls provides new tests for how weather influences public beliefs about climate change. Statewide data from 5000 random-sample telephone interviews conducted on 99 days over 2.5 yr (2010-12) are merged with temperature and precipitation indicators derived from U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) station records. The surveys carry a question designed around scientific consensus statements that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. Alternatively, respondents can state that climate change is not happening, or that it is happening but mainly for natural reasons. Belief that humans are changing the climate is predicted by temperature anomalies on the interview day and the previous day, controlling for season, survey, and individual characteristics. Temperature effects concentrate among one subgroup, however: individuals who identify themselves as independent, rather than aligned with a political party. Interviewed on unseasonably warm days, independents tend to agree with the scientific consensus regarding anthropogenic climate change. On unseasonably cool days, they tend not to agree. Although temperature effects are sharpest for just a 2-day window, positive effects are seen for longer windows as well. As future climate change shifts the distribution of anomalies and extremes, this will first affect beliefs among unaligned voters

Utilizing CoCoRaHS Climate Data to Improve Climate Literacy at the Middle School Level

One of the biggest obstacles seen in K-12 education today is the lower scores in math and science related subjects versus language arts and historical perspectives. Due to the need to improve these scores, many different methods are being tested and reviewed to improve overall understanding and ability. It is becoming more recognized in these efforts that the use of scientific method, experimentation, data collection and measurements are fantastic ways to improve understanding in math. One commonly noted difference is that math is “just numbers” and one can often go through the motions and complete the problem, but not necessarily understand the thought behind the numbers. However, science requires understanding of the situation and applying math accordingly, a skill that carries over into basic math understanding. The improvement of the sciences would not only benefit students in their science courses, but also in math as well

Arctic warming and your weather: Public belief in the connection

Will Arctic warming affect mid-latitude weather? Many researchers think so, and have addressed this question through scientific articles and news media. Much of the public accepts such a connection as well. Across three New Hampshire surveys with more than 1500 interviews, 60% of respondents say they think future Arctic warming would have major effects on their weather. Arctic/weather responses changed little after Superstorm Sandy brushed the region, but exhibit consistently strong partisan divisions that grow wider with education. Belief in an Arctic/weather connection also varies, in a nonlinear pattern, with the temperature anomaly around day of interview. Interviewed on unseasonably warm or cool days, respondents are more likely to think that Arctic warming would have major effects on their weather. This unscientific response seems to mirror the scientific discussion about extremes

Was December Warm? Family, Politics, and Recollections of Weather

In 2015 New Hampshire experienced its warmest December on record. The temperature exceeded twentieth century average temperatures by a wider margin than for any month in historical records dating back to 1895. In February 2016, as part of an ongoing study of environmental perceptions, the Granite State Poll asked state residents whether they thought the recent December had been generally colder, warmer, or about average for that month. Only 63 percent remembered it had been above average. The remainder of the winter set a new warmth record as well, so in April 2016 another Granite State Poll asked residents about the season as a whole. This time, 73 percent accurately recalled recent warmth. Political independents and Tea Party supporters, as well as people who do not believe that humans are changing the climate, were less likely to think temperatures had been warm. These results suggest that, even for such immediate phenomena as recent local weather, climate-change beliefs exert some influence on perceptions

Trends and Variability in Localized Precipitation Around Kibale National Park, Uganda, Africa

Our objective was to understand and describe local spatial and temporal variability in precipitation around Kibale National Park, a tropical forest area of high conservation value. Continental or regional-scale trends are often relied upon to make policy and management decisions, but these analyses are often at too coarse a resolution to capture important variability at a finer scale where management actions operate. Monthly rainfall data derived from ten long-term station records (1941-1975) were used to evaluate local spatiotemporal variability in seasonal and annual rainfall for the area surrounding Kibale National Park. The magnitude, direction and significance of trends in seasonal and annual rainfall within the area surrounding the park were identified using the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimator. The standardized precipitation index was calculated at 3- and 12-month periods to identify areas of relative wetness or dryness. Analysis of annual trends and precipitation indices indicated that patterns in annual time series do not reflect the direction and magnitude of seasonal trends nor the spatial variability in intra-annual rainfall at the local scale. Significant negative trends in the seasonal long rains, following dry season and short rains were identified at stations west of Kibale, while significant positive trends in the seasonal short rains occurred at stations north of the park. Stations along the western park boundary tended to have more years in which the two dry seasons were abnormally dry than those stations located further from the park

A simple model for predicting snow albedo decay using observations from the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow-Albedo (CoCoRAHS-Albedo) Network

The albedo of seasonal snow cover plays an important role in the global climate system due to its influence on Earth’s radiation budget and energy balance. Volunteer CoCoRaHS-Albedo observers collected 3,249 individual daily albedo, snow depth, and density measurements using standardized techniques at dozens of sites across New Hampshire, USA over four winter seasons. The data show that albedo increases rapidly with snow depth up to ~ 0.14 m. Multiple linear regression models using snowpack age, snow depth or density, and air temperature provide reasonable approximations of surface snow albedo during times of albedo decay. However, the linear models also reveal systematic biases that highlight an important non-linearity in snow albedo decay. Modeled albedo values are reasonably accurate within the range of 0.6 to 0.9, but exhibit a tendency to over-estimate lower albedo values and under-estimate higher albedo values. We hypothesize that rapid reduction in high albedo fresh snow results from a decrease in snow specific surface area, while during melt-events the presence of liquid water in the snowpack accelerates metamorphism and grain growth. We conclude that the CoCoRaHS-Albedo volunteer observer network provides useful snow albedo, depth, and density measurements and serves as an effective model for future measurement campaigns

Study of rheological behaviour of polymer melt in micro injection moulding with a miniaturized parallel plate rheometer

Abstract The study of the rheological behaviour of the polymer in micro cavities is one of the aspects related to the technology of micro injection moulding (μIM) still substantially unresolved. Even today, there are no databases on the rheological characteristics of the material specific for the μIM, which, therefore, takes into account a number of important differences compared to the conventional injection moulding. In this paper, the study of the rheological behaviour of the polymer melt in a thin plate cavity with variable thickness has been conducted. The use of a micro injection moulding machine, on which the prototype of a sensorized mould with pressure and temperature sensor has been mounted, allowed the rheological study of the material under high shear rate conditions. After preliminary tests on different thicknesses, it has been studied the viscosity of polymer melt for 400 μm thickness. The viscosity reduction observed meets the characteristics of a pseudoplastic fluid subject to shear thinning and the wall slip seems to play an important role in the apparent reduction of viscosity. The results suggest to increase injection speed, and consequently injection pressures, so that the reduced viscosity can help melt flow to overcome the extreme conditions due to the aspect ratio and to obtain greater efficiency from the filling phase against the high cooling rate typical of micro injection moulding.