Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality.

Background: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends. Methods and findings: The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25–74. Calculations were based on combining: i) data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland), ii) population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study), and iii) effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses). Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: 1) If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. 2) If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years) continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3) Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040. Conclusions: The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future

Urinary sodium-to-potassium ratio and intake of sodium and potassium among men and women from multiethnic general populations: the INTERSALT Study

The Na/K ratio may be more strongly related to blood pressure and cardiovascular disease than sodium or potassium. The casual urine Na/K ratio can provide prompt on-site feedback, and with repeated measurements, may provide useful individual estimates of the 24-h ratio. The World Health Organization has published guidelines for sodium and potassium intake, but no generally accepted guideline prevails for the Na/K ratio. We used standardized data on 24 h and casual urinary electrolyte excretion obtained from the INTERSALT Study for 10,065 individuals aged 20-59 years from 32 countries (52 populations). Associations between the casual urinary Na/K ratio and the 24-h sodium and potassium excretion of individuals were assessed by correlation and stratification analyses. The mean 24-h sodium and potassium excretions were 156.0 mmol/24 h and 55.2 mmol/24 h, respectively; the mean 24-h urinary Na/K molar ratio was 3.24. Pearson's correlation coefficients (r) for the casual urinary Na/K ratio with 24-h sodium and potassium excretions were 0.42 and -0.34, respectively, and these were 0.57 and -0.48 for the 24-h ratio. The urinary Na/K ratio predicted a 24-h urine Na excretion of <85 mmol/day (the WHO recommended guidelines) with a sensitivity of 99.7% and 94.0%, specificity of 39.5% and 48.0%, and positive predictive value of 96.3% and 61.1% at the cutoff point of 1 in 24 h and casual urine Na/K ratios, respectively. A urinary Na/K molar ratio <1 may be a useful indicator for adherence to the WHO recommended levels of sodium and, to a lesser extent, the potassium intake across different populations; however, cutoff points for Na/K ratio may be tuned for localization

PREDICTORS OF HYPERTENSION

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/74570/1/j.1749-6632.1978.tb25565.x.pd

Blood pressure and cholesterol level checks as dynamic interrelated screening examinations

This study analysed the determinants of screening uptake for blood pressure and cholesterol level checks. Furthermore, it investigated the presence of possible spillover effects from one type of cardiovascular screening to another type of cardiovascular screening. A dynamic random effects bivariate panel probit model with initial conditions (Wooldridge-type estimator) was adopted for the estimation. The outcome variables were the participation in blood pressure and cholesterol level checks by individuals in a given year. The balanced panel sample of 21,138 observations was constructed from 1,626 individuals from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) between 1996 and 2008. The analysis showed the significance of past screening behaviour for both cardiovascular screening examinations. For both cardiovascular screening examinations state dependence exist. The study also shows a significant spillover effect of the cholesterol level check on the blood pressure check and vice versa. Also a poorer health status led to a higher uptake for both types of screening examinations. Changes in recommendations have to consider the fact that taking part in one type of cardiovascular screening examination can influence the decision to take part in the other type of cardiovascular screening examination

Relation between casual blood pressure readings in youth and at age 40 : A retrospective study

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/32126/1/0000179.pd

Prevalence of coronary artery disease risk factors in Iran: a population based survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a leading cause of mortality, morbidity, and disability with high health care cost in Iran. It accounts for nearly 50 percent of all deaths per year. Yet little is known about CAD and CAD risk factors in the Iranian population. We aimed to assess the prevalence of different CAD risk factors in an Iranian population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A descriptive cross sectional survey was conducted involving 3000 healthy adults at 18 years of age or above who were recruited with cluster random sampling. Demographic data and risk factors were determined by taking history, physical examination and laboratory tests.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The average age was 36.23 ± 15.26. There was 1381 female (46%) and 1619 male (54%) out of which 6.3% were diabetic, 21.6% were smoker, and 15% had positive familial heart disease history. 61% had total cholesterol level > 200 mg/dL, 32% triglyceride > 200 mg/dl, 47.5% LDL-c > 130 mg/dl, 5.4% HDL-c < 35 mg/dl, 13.7% systolic blood pressure > 140 mmHg, 9.1% diastolic blood pressure > 90 mmHg and 87% of them were physically inactive.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Clinical and Para-clinical data indicated that Iranian adult population are of a high level of CAD risk factors, which may require urgent decision making to address national control measures regarding CAD.</p

Occupational and leisure time physical activity in contrasting relation to ambulatory blood pressure

Background: While moderate and vigorous leisure time physical activities are well documented to decrease the risk for cardiovascular disease, several studies have demonstrated an increased risk for cardiovascular disease in workers with high occupational activity. Research on the underlying causes to the contrasting effects of occupational and leisure time physical activity on cardiovascular health is lacking. The aim of this study was to examine the relation of objective and self-report measures of occupational and leisure time physical activity with 24-h ambulatory systolic blood pressure (BP). Methods: Results for self-reported physical activity are based on observations in 182 workers (60% male, mean age 51 years), while valid objective physical activity data were available in 151 participants. The usual level of physical activity was assessed by 5 items from the Job Content Questionnaire (high physical effort, lifting heavy loads, rapid physical activity, awkward body positions and awkward positions of head or arms at work) and one item asking about the general level of physical activity during non-working time. On a regular working day, participants wore an ambulatory BP monitor and an accelerometer physical activity monitor during 24 h. Associations were examined by means of Analysis of Covariance. Results: Workers with an overall high level of self-reported occupational physical activity as well as those who reported to often lift heavy loads at work had a higher mean systolic BP at work, at home and during sleep. However, no associations were observed between objectively measured occupational physical activity and BP. In contrast, those with objectively measured high proportion of moderate and vigorous leisure time physical activity had a significantly lower mean systolic BP during daytime, while no differences were observed according to self-reported level of leisure time physical activity. Conclusions: These findings suggest that workers reporting static occupational physical activities, unlike general physically demanding tasks characterized by dynamic movements of large muscle groups, are related to a higher daily systolic BP, while high objective levels of moderate and vigorous leisure time physical activity are related to lower daytime systolic BP. Ambulatory systolic BP may be a physiological explanatory factor for the contrasting effects of occupational and leisure time physical activity