Methods for incorporating ecological impacts with climate uncertainty to support robust flood management decision-making

Modern and historic flood risk management involves accommodating multiple sources of sources of uncertainty and potential impacts across a broad range of interrelated sectors. Sources of uncertainty that affect planning include internal climate variability, anthropogenic changes such as land use and system performance expectations, and more recently changes in climatology that affect the resources supporting the system. Flood management systems potentially impact human settlements within and beyond the systems’ scope of planning, local weather patterns, and associated ecological systems. Federal guidelines across nations have called for greater consideration of uncertainty and impacts of water resources planning projects, but methods for meeting these needs remain poorly established. At the same time, there is increased attention to the ecological impacts of water resources systems and growing expectations that negative impacts be mitigated. The confluence of climate change and increasing demand for environmental quality presents a challenging flood management decision context. This work presents several alternative methods for incorporating ecological impacts into flood risk management and evaluation procedures alongside climate uncertainty, which are illustrated through application to a flood management system on the Iowa River. First, to integrate climate change and uncertainty information into these decision models, the dissertation presents a decision-centric trend detection test in which the threshold for accepting or rejecting a trend in observed data is determined by the expected cost of drawing a false conclusion. Next, the dissertation presents a decision model to choose a portfolio of adaptation options based on portfolios’ expected economic and monetized ecological performance under uncertain future flood hazard. The dissertation also develops a robust optimization model with an alternate treatment of ecological performance to maximize the range of future conditions over which performance is acceptable in both economic and ecological impact sectors. Lastly, the dissertation presents a method for deriving a posterior distribution of changes in climate parameters based on a combination of a prior constructed based on climate model projections and likelihood based on the historic record. The goals of this work are to develop enhanced decision support tools that accommodate the unique context of flood risk management decisions and to improve the set of methods available to characterize future flood hazard and its associated uncertainty

Attention bias to emotional faces varies by IQ and anxiety in Williams syndrome

Individuals with Williams syndrome (WS) often experience significant anxiety. A promising approach to anxiety intervention has emerged from cognitive studies of attention bias to threat. To investigate the utility of this intervention in WS, this study examined attention bias to happy and angry faces in individuals with WS (N=46). Results showed a significant difference in attention bias patterns as a function of IQ and anxiety. Individuals with higher IQ or higher anxiety showed a significant bias toward angry, but not happy faces, whereas individuals with lower IQ or lower anxiety showed the opposite pattern. These results suggest that attention bias interventions to modify a threat bias may be most effectively targeted to anxious individuals with WS with relatively high IQ

Convalescent human IgG, but not IgM, from COVID-19 survivors confers dose-dependent protection against SARS-CoV-2 replication and disease in hamsters

IntroductionAntibody therapeutic strategies have served an important role during the COVID-19 pandemic, even as their effectiveness has waned with the emergence of escape variants. Here we sought to determine the concentration of convalescent immunoglobulin required to protect against disease from SARS-CoV-2 in a Syrian golden hamster model.MethodsTotal IgG and IgM were isolated from plasma of SARS-CoV-2 convalescent donors. Dose titrations of IgG and IgM were infused into hamsters 1 day prior to challenge with SARS-CoV-2 Wuhan-1.ResultsThe IgM preparation was found to have ~25-fold greater neutralization potency than IgG. IgG infusion protected hamsters from disease in a dose-dependent manner, with detectable serum neutralizing titers correlating with protection. Despite a higher in vitro neutralizing potency, IgM failed to protect against disease when transferred into hamsters.DiscussionThis study adds to the growing body of literature that demonstrates neutralizing IgG antibodies are important for protection from SARS-CoV-2 disease, and confirms that polyclonal IgG in sera can be an effective preventative strategy if the neutralizing titers are sufficiently high. In the context of new variants, against which existing vaccines or monoclonal antibodies have reduced efficacy, sera from individuals who have recovered from infection with the emerging variant may potentially remain an efficacious tool

Multinational evaluation of genetic diversity indicators for the Kunming‐Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework

Under the recently adopted Kunming‐Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, 196 Parties committed to reporting the status of genetic diversity for all species. To facilitate reporting, three genetic diversity indicators were developed, two of which focus on processes contributing to genetic diversity conservation: maintaining genetically distinct populations and ensuring populations are large enough to maintain genetic diversity. The major advantage of these indicators is that they can be estimated with or without DNA‐based data. However, demonstrating their feasibility requires addressing the methodological challenges of using data gathered from diverse sources, across diverse taxonomic groups, and for countries of varying socio‐economic status and biodiversity levels. Here, we assess the genetic indicators for 919 taxa, representing 5271 populations across nine countries, including megadiverse countries and developing economies. Eighty‐three percent of the taxa assessed had data available to calculate at least one indicator. Our results show that although the majority of species maintain most populations, 58% of species have populations too small to maintain genetic diversity. Moreover, genetic indicator values suggest that IUCN Red List status and other initiatives fail to assess genetic status, highlighting the critical importance of genetic indicators

Safety, immunogenicity, and reactogenicity of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccines given as fourth-dose boosters following two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or BNT162b2 and a third dose of BNT162b2 (COV-BOOST): a multicentre, blinded, phase 2, randomised trial

Background Some high-income countries have deployed fourth doses of COVID-19 vaccines, but the clinical need, effectiveness, timing, and dose of a fourth dose remain uncertain. We aimed to investigate the safety, reactogenicity, and immunogenicity of fourth-dose boosters against COVID-19.Methods The COV-BOOST trial is a multicentre, blinded, phase 2, randomised controlled trial of seven COVID-19 vaccines given as third-dose boosters at 18 sites in the UK. This sub-study enrolled participants who had received BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) as their third dose in COV-BOOST and randomly assigned them (1:1) to receive a fourth dose of either BNT162b2 (30 µg in 0·30 mL; full dose) or mRNA-1273 (Moderna; 50 µg in 0·25 mL; half dose) via intramuscular injection into the upper arm. The computer-generated randomisation list was created by the study statisticians with random block sizes of two or four. Participants and all study staff not delivering the vaccines were masked to treatment allocation. The coprimary outcomes were safety and reactogenicity, and immunogenicity (antispike protein IgG titres by ELISA and cellular immune response by ELISpot). We compared immunogenicity at 28 days after the third dose versus 14 days after the fourth dose and at day 0 versus day 14 relative to the fourth dose. Safety and reactogenicity were assessed in the per-protocol population, which comprised all participants who received a fourth-dose booster regardless of their SARS-CoV-2 serostatus. Immunogenicity was primarily analysed in a modified intention-to-treat population comprising seronegative participants who had received a fourth-dose booster and had available endpoint data. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, 73765130, and is ongoing.Findings Between Jan 11 and Jan 25, 2022, 166 participants were screened, randomly assigned, and received either full-dose BNT162b2 (n=83) or half-dose mRNA-1273 (n=83) as a fourth dose. The median age of these participants was 70·1 years (IQR 51·6–77·5) and 86 (52%) of 166 participants were female and 80 (48%) were male. The median interval between the third and fourth doses was 208·5 days (IQR 203·3–214·8). Pain was the most common local solicited adverse event and fatigue was the most common systemic solicited adverse event after BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 booster doses. None of three serious adverse events reported after a fourth dose with BNT162b2 were related to the study vaccine. In the BNT162b2 group, geometric mean anti-spike protein IgG concentration at day 28 after the third dose was 23 325 ELISA laboratory units (ELU)/mL (95% CI 20 030–27 162), which increased to 37 460 ELU/mL (31 996–43 857) at day 14 after the fourth dose, representing a significant fold change (geometric mean 1·59, 95% CI 1·41–1·78). There was a significant increase in geometric mean anti-spike protein IgG concentration from 28 days after the third dose (25 317 ELU/mL, 95% CI 20 996–30 528) to 14 days after a fourth dose of mRNA-1273 (54 936 ELU/mL, 46 826–64 452), with a geometric mean fold change of 2·19 (1·90–2·52). The fold changes in anti-spike protein IgG titres from before (day 0) to after (day 14) the fourth dose were 12·19 (95% CI 10·37–14·32) and 15·90 (12·92–19·58) in the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 groups, respectively. T-cell responses were also boosted after the fourth dose (eg, the fold changes for the wild-type variant from before to after the fourth dose were 7·32 [95% CI 3·24–16·54] in the BNT162b2 group and 6·22 [3·90–9·92] in the mRNA-1273 group).Interpretation Fourth-dose COVID-19 mRNA booster vaccines are well tolerated and boost cellular and humoral immunity. Peak responses after the fourth dose were similar to, and possibly better than, peak responses after the third dose

Towards the incorporation of hydrogeochemistry into the modelling of permafrost environments: a review of recent recommendations, considerations, and literature

This study is a meta-analysis of recent global research articles on hydrogeochemical modelling of permafrost regions to determine trends and consensus on research gaps and future research directions. The hydrogeochemical response of permafrost to climate change remains challenging to estimate and forecast despite evidence of large-scale impacts on freshwater and ecological cycles. We investigate the feasibility, need, and potential for hydrogeochemical modelling of permafrost landscapes by reviewing recommendations from previous modelling, review, and primer papers, including discussing ways to advance this type of modelling science. Key permafrost hydrogeochemical processes are discussed, including heat transfer and associated freeze–thaw regimes, biogeochemical processes and rates, and surface and subsurface flow. Modelling considerations (i.e., model dimension, scale, heterogeneity, and permafrost zonation) and model parameters are subsequently examined. Finally, limitations and additional considerations for advancing permafrost hydrogeochemical modelling efforts are reviewed. The findings of this review are summarized in recommendations, tables, and two schematics incorporating key considerations for future hydrogeochemical modelling initiatives in permafrost environments

Sustainable water management under future uncertainty with eco-engineering decision scaling

Managing freshwater resources sustainably under climatic uncertainty poses novel challenges. Rehabilitation of aging infrastructure and the construction of new dams are viewed as solutions to manage climate risk, but attaining the broader goal of freshwater sustainability will require expansion of the water resources management paradigm beyond narrow economic criteria to include socially‐valued ecosystem functions and services. We introduce a new decision framework, called Eco‐engineering decision scaling (EEDS) that explicitly and quantitatively explores tradeoffs in stakeholder‐defined engineering and ecological performance metrics across a range of management actions and future climate states. We illustrate its potential application through a hypothetical case study of the Iowa River USA. EEDS holds promise as a powerful tool for operationalizing freshwater sustainability through incorporation of ecological vulnerability in the design and operation of resilient infrastructure