Are all energy resources created equal? a comparative analysis of the dynamics of resources for the energy system

There is a longstanding debate about the future availability of energy resources, and a significant literature has developed around the issues of oil availability in particular. More recently, the availability of lesser-known critical metals, such as lithium and indium, has been called into question. These metals are key components in low-carbon energy technologies and a new evidence base that questions their future availability is emerging. Much of this research applies methods and techniques also applied to the analysis of oil resources, with the implicit assumption that these resources are in some way analogous. However, although there are similarities, there are also structural differences and the appropriateness of the assumed analogy has not been sufficiently tested. This thesis explores the similarities and differences in the structure of the oil, lithium and indium resource systems, examining the likely response of these systems to availability constraints and testing the appropriateness of this assumed analogy. The systems that define the market for resources are dynamically complex and involve a number of different interlinked variables. The way in which these resource systems respond to changes in surrounding conditions arises from the structure of these variables and their linkages. However, much of the existing analysis of critical metals relies on simplistic assumptions regarding the structure and function of these systems. To address this knowledge gap, this thesis first presents case studies of the three resource systems. The case studies are then used to develop three system dynamics models. This thesis finds that, while there are many similarities in the structure of the three resource systems modelled, the differences between them have a significant impact on their dynamic system behaviour. Analysis which overlooks these differences is likely to draw inaccurate conclusions. In particular, the resilience of metals to periods of constrained availability is potentially greater than that of oil if metal recycling is taken into account. However, metals recovered as by-products are potentially limited in their ability to resist constrained availability.Open Acces

A review of regional and global estimates of unconventional gas resources

This Research Report assesses the currently available evidence on the size of unconventional gas resources at the regional and global level. Focusing in particular on shale gas, it provides a comprehensive summary and comparison of the estimates that have been produced to date. It also examines the methods by which these resource estimates have been produced the strengths and weaknesses of those methods, the range of uncertainty in the results and the factors that are relevant to their interpretation

Strategy and Policy Statement for Energy Policy in Great Britain Consultation Response

A response provided by the Centre for Energy Policy to the UK Government's consultation on its draft Strategy and Policy Statement for Energy Policy in Great Britain which sets out the government's strategic priorities for energy policy, the policy outcomes to be achieved and the roles and responsibilities of persons involved in implementing that policy

Briefing Note : Unlocking the Benefits of the Low-Carbon Heat Transition

Decarbonising residential heating will be critical to meeting the UK’s Net Zero ambitions. The UK Government has highlighted that the transition to low-carbon buildings could bring economic benefits including £6BN GVA (gross value added) and 175,000 skilled, green jobs by 2030. Yet to realise these benefits, questions and decisions around how policies are funded, related supply chains supported, and energy markets reformed will be critical. This brief provides new analysis and insights based on the Centre for Energy Policy’s (CEP) research on the heat pump rollout as part of the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) programme that can help inform this action

How long does innovation and commercialisation in the energy sectors take? Historical case studies of the timescale from invention to widespread commercialisation in energy supply and end use technology

Recent climate change initiatives, such as ‘Mission Innovation’ launched alongside the Paris Agreement in 2015, urge redoubled research into innovative low carbon technologies. However, climate change is an urgent problem – emissions reductions must take place rapidly throughout the coming decades. This raises an important question: how long might it take for individual technologies to emerge from research, find market opportunities and make a tangible impact on emissions reductions? Here, we consider historical evidence for the time a range of energy supply and energy end-use technologies have taken to emerge from invention, diffuse into the market and reach widespread deployment. We find considerable variation, from 20 to almost 70 years. Our findings suggest that the time needed for new technologies to achieve widespread deployment should not be overlooked, and that innovation policy should focus on accelerating the deployment of existing technologies as well as research into new ones

Methane emissions : choosing the right climate metric and time horizon

Methane is a more potent greenhouse gas (GHG) than CO2, but it has a shorter atmospheric lifespan, thus its relative climate impact reduces significantly over time. Different GHGs are often conflated into a single metric to compare technologies and supply chains, such as the global warming potential (GWP). However, the use of GWP is criticised, regarding: (1) the need to select a timeframe; (2) its physical basis on radiative forcing; and (3) the fact that it measures the average forcing of a pulse over time rather than a sustained emission at a specific end-point in time. Many alternative metrics have been proposed which tackle different aspects of these limitations and this paper assesses them by their key attributes and limitations, with respect to methane emissions. A case study application of various metrics is produced and recommendations are made for the use of climate metrics for different categories of applications. Across metrics, CO2 equivalences for methane range from 4-199 gCO2eq./gCH4, although most estimates fall between 20 and 80 gCO2eq./gCH4. Therefore the selection of metric and time horizon for technology evaluations is likely to change the rank order of preference, as demonstrated herein with the use of natural gas as a shipping fuel versus alternatives. It is not advisable or conservative to use only a short time horizon, e.g. 20 years, which disregards the long-term impacts of CO2 emissions and is thus detrimental to achieving eventual climate stabilisation. Recommendations are made for the use of metrics in 3 categories of applications. Short-term emissions estimates of facilities or regions should be transparent and use a single metric and include the separated contribution from each GHG. Multi-year technology assessments should use both short and long term static metrics (e.g. GWP) to test robustness of results. Longer term energy assessments or decarbonisation pathways must use both short and long-term metrics and where this has a large impact on results, climate models should be incorporated. Dynamic metrics offer insight into the timing of emissions, but may be of only marginal benefit given uncertainties in methodological assumptions

Future use of natural gas under tightening climate targets

Natural gas has developed as a prominent energy source across the world over the last century. However, its use in the future will be constrained by evolving climate goals, and an optimal role for natural gas in a future 1.5°C world is debated. We conduct a systematic review of the literature, and analysis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SR1.5 scenarios to understand the role of natural gas in a 1.5°C world. We also examine key factors that influence the use of gas such as Carbon Capture and Storage and Negative Emissions Technologies. We find that global gas use decreases more considerably under a 1.5°C target than 2°C with half of the 1.5°C scenarios reducing gas use by at least ∼35% by 2050 and ∼70% by 2100 against 2019 consumption. We find there is no correlation between the level of Negative Emissions Technologies and the permitted gas use in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios, while there is a strong correlation between gas use and the deployment of Carbon Capture and Storage. Regionally, there are considerable ranges in gas use, with the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development & European Union seeing the greatest decrease in use and Asia increasing use until 2050. Notwithstanding this uncertainty, global natural gas use is likely to decrease in the coming decades in response to climate goals

Linking energy sensing to suppression of JAK-STAT signalling: a potential route for repurposing AMPK activators?

YesExaggerated Janus kinase-signal transducer and activator of transcription (JAKSTAT) signalling is key to the pathogenesis of pro-inflammatory disorders, such as rheumatoid arthritis and cardiovascular diseases. Mutational activation of JAKs is also responsible for several haematological malignancies, including myeloproliferative neoplasms and acute lymphoblastic leukaemia. Accumulating evidence links adenosine 5′-monophosphate (AMP)–activated protein kinase (AMPK), an energy sensor and regulator of organismal and cellular metabolism, with the suppression of immune and inflammatory processes. Recent studies have shown that activation of AMPK can limit JAK-STAT-dependent signalling pathways via several mechanisms. These novel findings support AMPK activation as a strategy for management of an array of disorders characterised by hyper-activation of the JAKSTAT pathway. This review discusses the pivotal role of JAK-STAT signalling in a range of disorders and how both established clinically used and novel AMPK activators might be used to treat these conditions.British Heart Foundation; Diabetes UK; Chief Scientist Office; NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde Research Endowment Fund; Chest, Heart and Stroke Scotlan

A relational approach to characterizing householder perceptions of disruption in heat transitions

Heat decarbonization threatens substantial disruptions in temperate countries. However, the concept of disruption carries diverse meanings, potentially relating to cost, material space and everyday heating practices. Here, using interpretive risk theory, this article elucidates a relational understanding of how disruption is experienced and takes on meaning in everyday life. We deploy this framework to examine perceptions of four low-carbon heating technologies—heat pumps, hydrogen, hybrid heating and heat networks—alongside associated upgrades to distribution network infrastructure. Drawing on data from six, 1-day workshops representing a diversity of geographic and housing contexts across the United Kingdom, we address how existing relationships shape hopes, fears and expectations for heat decarbonization. Our findings help clarify the role of affective relationships, feelings of precarity, security and pressure in distinguishing material inconveniences from more fundamental disruptions to valued ways of life, and may be particularly relevant in other gas-dependent countries and regions

Phosphorylation of Janus kinase 1 (JAK1) by AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK) links energy sensing to anti-inflammatory signaling

Adenosine 5′-monophosphate-activated protein kinase (AMPK) is a pivotal regulator of metabolism at cellular and organismal levels. AMPK also suppresses inflammation. We found that pharmacological activation of AMPK rapidly inhibited the Janus kinase (JAK)-signal transducer and activator of transcription (STAT) pathway in various cells. In vitro kinase assays revealed that AMPK directly phosphorylated two residues (Ser515 and Ser518) within the Src homology 2 domain of JAK1. Activation of AMPK enhanced the interaction between JAK1 and 14-3-3 proteins in cultured vascular endothelial cells and fibroblasts, an effect that required the presence of Ser515 and Ser518 and was abolished in cells lacking AMPK catalytic subunits. Mutation of Ser515 and Ser518 abolished AMPK-mediated inhibition of JAK-STAT signaling stimulated by either the sIL-6Ra/IL-6 complex or the expression of a constitutively active V658F-mutant JAK1 in human fibrosarcoma cells. Clinically used AMPK activators metformin and salicylate enhanced the inhibitory phosphorylation of endogenous JAK1 and inhibited STAT3 phosphorylation in primary vascular endothelial cells. Therefore, our findings reveal a mechanism by which JAK1 function and inflammatory signaling may be suppressed in response to metabolic stress and provide a mechanistic rationale for the investigation of AMPK activators in a range of diseases associated with enhanced activation of the JAK-STAT pathway. 2016</p