Direct transition to high-dimensional chaos through a global bifurcation

In the present work we report on a genuine route by which a high-dimensional (with d>4) chaotic attractor is created directly, i.e., without a low-dimensional chaotic attractor as an intermediate step. The high-dimensional chaotic set is created in a heteroclinic global bifurcation that yields an infinite number of unstable tori.The mechanism is illustrated using a system constructed by coupling three Lorenz oscillators. So, the route presented here can be considered a prototype for high-dimensional chaotic behavior just as the Lorenz model is for low-dimensional chaos.Comment: 7 page

Psi-series solutions of the cubic H\'{e}non-Heiles system and their convergence

The cubic H\'enon-Heiles system contains parameters, for most values of which, the system is not integrable. In such parameter regimes, the general solution is expressible in formal expansions about arbitrary movable branch points, the so-called psi-series expansions. In this paper, the convergence of known, as well as new, psi-series solutions on real time intervals is proved, thereby establishing that the formal solutions are actual solutions

Contribution of anthropogenic climate change to April-May 2017 heavy precipitation over the Uruguay River basin

Anthropogenic climate change has increased the risk of the April-May 2017 extreme rainfall in the Uruguay River basin, which has caused extensive flood and major socio-economic impacts, by at least twofold with a most-likely increase of about five

The Incredible Years Autism Spectrum and Language Delays Parent program: A pragmatic, feasibility randomized controlled trial

Behavior problems in children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) are common and particularly stressful for parents. This study aimed to examine the feasibility of delivering a parenting program in existing services, and the feasibility of conducting a future large‐scale Randomized Controlled Trial evaluation of the effectiveness of the intervention. Parents of children aged 3–8 years with a diagnosis of ASD, or strongly suspected ASD were eligible to participate. A multicenter, pragmatic, feasibility randomized controlled trial was conducted in four specialist children's services in Wales. Families were randomly assigned to receive the Incredible Years® Autism Spectrum and Language Delays (IY‐ASLD) parent program immediately or to a wait‐list, treatment as usual control condition. IY‐ASLD sessions were delivered once a week for 12 weeks. The primary outcomes related to feasibility (recruitment, retention, fidelity, and acceptability). Preliminary outcome analyses were conducted using covariance models controlling for study site and baseline scores. From October 5 to December 19, 2016, 58 families were randomized, 29 to IY‐ASLD and 29 to control. Three parents did not attend any sessions while 19 (73%) completed the program. Fidelity of delivery was high (88%), as was satisfaction with the program. Fifty‐three (91%) completed the follow‐up measures. All 95% CIs for effect sizes included zero in exploratory outcome analyses. This study supports the feasibility of delivering the IY‐ASLD in existing services with good levels of acceptability and fidelity evident. A larger randomized controlled trial is required to examine the effectiveness of the program. Autism Res 2019. © 2019 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc

Attributing human influence on July 2017 Chinese heatwave: the influence of sea-surface temperatures

On 21st-25thJuly 2017 a record breaking heatwave occurred in Central Eastern China affecting nearly half of the national population and causing severe impacts on public health, agriculture and infrastructure. Here, we compare attribution results from two UK Met Office Hadley Centre models, HadGEM3-GA6 and weather@home (HadAM3P driving 50km HadRM3P). Within HadGEM3-GA6 July 2017-like heatwaves were unequaled in the ensemble representing the world without human influences. Such heatwaves became approximately a 1 in 50 year event and increased by a factor of 4.8 (5-95% range of 3.1 to 8.0) in weather@home as a result of human activity. Considering the risk ratio (RR) for the full range of return periods shows a discrepancy at all return times between the two model results. Within weather@home a range of different counterfactual Sea Surface Temperature (SST) patterns were used whereas HadGEM3-GA6 used a single estimate. The global mean difference in SST (between factual and counterfactual simulations) is shown to be related to the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) location parameter and consequently the RR, especially for return periods less than 50 years. It is suggested that a suitable range of SST patterns are used for future attribution studies to ensure that this source of uncertainty is represented within the simulations and subsequent attribution results. It is shown that the risk change between factual and counterfactual simulations is not purely a simple shift in the distribution (i.e. change in GEV location parameter). For return periods greater than 50 years the GEV shape parameter is found to strongly influence the RR determined with the GEV scale parameter affecting only the most severe events