Institutional Forecasting: The Performance of Thin Virtual Stock Markets

We study the performance of Virtual Stock Markets (VSMs) in an institutional forecasting environment. We compare VSMs to the Combined Judgmental Forecast (CJF) and the Key Informant (KI) approach. We find that VSMs can be effectively applied in an environment with a small number of knowledgeable informants, i.e., in thin markets. Our results show that none of the three approaches differ in forecasting accuracy in a low knowledge-heterogeneity environment. However, where there is high knowledge-heterogeneity, the VSM approach outperforms the CJF approach, which in turn outperforms the KI approach. Hence, our results provide useful insight into when each of the three approaches might be most effectively applied.Forecasting;Electronic Markets;Information Markets;Virtual Stock Markets

Institutional Forecasting: The Performance of Thin Virtual Stock Markets

We study the performance of Virtual Stock Markets (VSMs) in an institutional forecasting environment. We compare VSMs to the Combined Judgmental Forecast (CJF) and the Key Informant (KI) approach. We find that VSMs can be effectively applied in an environment with a small number of knowledgeable informants, i.e., in thin markets. Our results show that none of the three approaches differ in forecasting accuracy in a low knowledge-heterogeneity environment. However, where there is high knowledge-heterogeneity, the VSM approach outperforms the CJF approach, which in turn outperforms the KI approach. Hence, our results provide useful insight into when each of the three approaches might be most effectively applied

The CEM-UT Rapid-Fire Compulsator Test Results and Performance Evaluation

Since its inception in 1978, much attention has focused on compulsators as an alternative to capacitors and homopolar generators as a pulsed power supply. In addition to high voltage, high peak power, and large power densities, compulsators offer the advantage of supplying repetitive pulses without the need for external power conditioning. These repetitive power pulses are well suited for driving laser flashlamps, electromagnetic and electrothermal launchers, and particle beam accelerators. In April of 1986, fabrication and installation of a 1 megajoule (MJ) per pulse, rapid-fire compulsator was completed at the Center for Electromechanics at The University of Texas at Austin (CEM-UT). A test program was initiated and, since then, a substantial volume of machine performance data has been collected. This paper presents the mechanical and electrical performance data of the compulsator. Included are measurements of rotor critical frequency and bearing performance. Also shown are open circuit voltage characteristics and current waveform characteristics during discharge into low impedance loads.Center for Electromechanic

Pay What You Want as a Marketing Strategy in Monopolistic and Competitive Markets

Pay What You Want (PWYW) can be an attractive marketing strategy to price discriminate between fair-minded and selfish customers, to fully penetrate a market without giving away the product for free, and to undercut competitors that use posted prices. We report on laboratory experiments that identify causal factors determining the willingness of buyers to pay voluntarily under PWYW. Furthermore, to see how competition affects the viability of PWYW, we implement markets in which a PWYW seller competes with a traditional seller. Finally, we endogenize the market structure and let sellers choose their pricing strategy. The experimental results show that outcome-based social preferences and strategic considerations to keep the seller in the market can explain why and how much buyers pay voluntarily to a PWYW seller. We find that PWYW can be viable in isolation, but it is less successful as a competitive strategy because it does not drive traditional posted-price sellers out of the market. Instead, the existence of a posted-price competitor reduces buyers’ payments and prevents the PWYW seller from fully penetrating the market. If given the choice, the majority of sellers opt for setting a posted price rather than a PWYW pricing. We discuss the implications of these results for the use of PWYW as a marketing strategy

Beyond posted prices: the past, present and future of participative pricing mechanisms

Driven by the low transaction costs and interactive nature of the internet, customer participation in the price-setting process has increased. These changes were first brought about by the rise of online auctions in the early 2000s, followed by the emergence of newer participative mechanisms. Today, platforms such as eBay have popularized online auctions on a global scale, Priceline has made headlines with its name-your-own-price (NYOP) business model, and Humble Bundle has enabled independent musicians and game developers to market their works through pay-what-you-want (PWYW) pricing. Advertising exchanges conduct several hundred million individual auctions per day to sell online advertising slots. These are just a few examples of participative pricing in transactions among consumers or businesses. In parallel, academic research on participative pricing has blossomed in recent years, with an overarching concern over the profitability and other marketing implications these mechanisms have on sellers and buyers. The present paper contributes to this literature in three ways. First, we propose a definition of participative pricing mechanisms, as well as a useful taxonomy. Second, we discuss the current understanding by synthesizing conceptual and empirical academic literature. Third, we outline promising research questions with a key focus on the related behavioral aspects of buyers and sellers

Revival of the magnetar PSR J1622-4950: observations with MeerKAT, Parkes, XMM-Newton, Swift, Chandra, and NuSTAR

New radio (MeerKAT and Parkes) and X-ray (XMM-Newton, Swift, Chandra, and NuSTAR) observations of PSR J1622-4950 indicate that the magnetar, in a quiescent state since at least early 2015, reactivated between 2017 March 19 and April 5. The radio flux density, while variable, is approximately 100x larger than during its dormant state. The X-ray flux one month after reactivation was at least 800x larger than during quiescence, and has been decaying exponentially on a 111+/-19 day timescale. This high-flux state, together with a radio-derived rotational ephemeris, enabled for the first time the detection of X-ray pulsations for this magnetar. At 5%, the 0.3-6 keV pulsed fraction is comparable to the smallest observed for magnetars. The overall pulsar geometry inferred from polarized radio emission appears to be broadly consistent with that determined 6-8 years earlier. However, rotating vector model fits suggest that we are now seeing radio emission from a different location in the magnetosphere than previously. This indicates a novel way in which radio emission from magnetars can differ from that of ordinary pulsars. The torque on the neutron star is varying rapidly and unsteadily, as is common for magnetars following outburst, having changed by a factor of 7 within six months of reactivation.Comment: Published in ApJ (2018 April 5); 13 pages, 4 figure

'To live and die [for] Dixie': Irish civilians and the Confederate States of America

Around 20,000 Irishmen served in the Confederate army in the Civil War. As a result, they left behind, in various Southern towns and cities, large numbers of friends, family, and community leaders. As with native-born Confederates, Irish civilian support was crucial to Irish participation in the Confederate military effort. Also, Irish civilians served in various supporting roles: in factories and hospitals, on railroads and diplomatic missions, and as boosters for the cause. They also, however, suffered in bombardments, sieges, and the blockade. Usually poorer than their native neighbours, they could not afford to become 'refugees' and move away from the centres of conflict. This essay, based on research from manuscript collections, contemporary newspapers, British Consular records, and Federal military records, will examine the role of Irish civilians in the Confederacy, and assess the role this activity had on their integration into Southern communities. It will also look at Irish civilians in the defeat of the Confederacy, particularly when they came under Union occupation. Initial research shows that Irish civilians were not as upset as other whites in the South about Union victory. They welcomed a return to normalcy, and often 'collaborated' with Union authorities. Also, Irish desertion rates in the Confederate army were particularly high, and I will attempt to gauge whether Irish civilians played a role in this. All of the research in this paper will thus be put in the context of the Drew Gilpin Faust/Gary Gallagher debate on the influence of the Confederate homefront on military performance. By studying the Irish civilian experience one can assess how strong the Confederate national experiment was. Was it a nation without a nationalism

Respiratory Syncytial Virus infection promotes necroptosis and HMGB1 release by airway epithelial cells

Rationale: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) bronchiolitis causes significant infant mortality. Bronchiolitis is characterized by airway epithelial cell (AEC) death; however, the mode of death remains unknown. Objectives: To determine whether necroptosis contributes to RSV b r onchiolitis pathogenesis via HMGB1 (high mobility group box 1) release. Methods: Nasopharyngeal samples were collected from children presenting to the hospital with acute respiratory infection. Primary human AECs and neonatal mice were inoculated with RSV and murine Pneumovirus, respectively. Necroptosis was determined via viability assays and immunohistochemistry for RIPK1 (receptor-interacting protein kinase-1), MLKL (mixed lineage kinase domain-like pseudokinase) protein, and caspase-3. Necroptosis was blocked using pharmacological inhibitors and RIPK1 kinase-dead knockin mice. Measurements and Main Results: HMGB1 levels were elevated in nasopharyngeal samples of children with acute RSV infection. RSV-induced epithelial cell death was associated with increased phosphorylated RIPK1 and phosphorylated MLKL but not active caspase-3 expression. Inhibition of RIPK1 or MLKL attenuated RSV-induced HMGBI translocation and release, and lowered viral load. MLKL inhibition increased active caspase-3 expression in a caspase-8/9-dependent manner. In susceptible mice, Pneumovirus infection upregulated RIPK1 and MLKL expression in the airway epithelium at 8 to 10 days after infection, coinciding with AEC sloughing, HMGB1 release, and neutrophilic inflammation. Genetic or pharmacological inhibition of RIPK1 or MLKL attenuated these pathologies, lowered viral load, and prevented type 2 inflammation and airway remodeling. Necroptosis inhibition in early life ameliorated asthma progression induced by viral or allergen challenge in later life. Conclusions: Pneumovirus infection induces AEC necroptosis. Inhibition of necroptosis may be a viable strategy to limit the severity of viral bronchiolitis and break its nexus with asthma

Respiratory Infections by HMPV and RSV Are Clinically Indistinguishable but Induce Different Host Response in Aged Individuals

Background: Human metapneumovirus and respiratory syncytial virus can cause severe respiratory diseases, especially in infants, young children, and the elderly. So far it remains unclear why infections in the elderly become life threatening despite the presence of neutralizing antibodies in the serum, and to which extent double infections worsen the clinical course. Methods: Young and aged BALB/c-mice were infected with RSV or/and HMPV. Appearance of the mice was observed during course of infection. On day 5 p.i. animals were dispatched by cervical dislocation and levels of TNF-a and NF-kB were determined. Results: The observation of activity, weight and appearance of the different mice showed no differences among the tested groups. Despite this, the immunologic response depends on the animals ’ age and the virus they were infected with. In young animals, NF-kB levels were elevated if infected with HMPV and HMPV/RSV but remained low in RSV infections, whereas in aged animals the opposite was observed: solely RSV-infected animals showed elevated levels of NF-kB. TNF-a was slightly elevated in HMPV-infected young and old animals, but only in young animals this elevation was significant. Conclusions: Contrary to other studies, no weight loss or change in activity despite productive lung infection with the different viruses were observed. This may be due to the weaker anaesthesia or the lesser volume of virus solution used