On-site earthquake early warning: a partially non-ergodic perspective from the site effects point of view

We introduce in the on-site earthquake early warning (EEW) a partially non-ergodic perspective from the site effects point of view. We consider the on-site EEW approach where the peak ground velocity (PGV) for S waves is predicted from an early estimate, over the P waves, of either the peak-displacement (PD) or cumulative squared velocity (IV2). The empirical PD-PGV and IV2-PGV relationships are developed by applying a mixed-effect regression where the site-specific modifications of ground shaking are treated as random effects. We considered a large data set composed of almost 31 000 selected recordings in central Italy, a region struck by four earthquakes with magnitude between 6 and 6.5 since the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake. We split the data set into three subsets used for calibrating and validating the on-site EEW models, and for exemplifying their application to stations installed after the calibration phase. We show that the partially non-ergodic models improve the accuracy of the PGV predictions with respect to ergodic models derived for other regions of the world. Moreover, considering PD and accounting for site effects, we reduce the (apparent) aleatory variability of the logarithm of PGV from 0.31 to 0.36, typical values for ergodic on-site EEW models, to about 0.25. Interestingly, a lower variability of 0.15 is obtained by considering IV2 as proxy, which suggests further consideration of this parameter for the design of on-site EEW systems. Since being site-specific is an inherent characteristic of on-site EEW applications, the improved accuracy and precision of the PGV predicted for a target protection translate in a better customization of the alert protocols for automatic actions

Detecting long-lasting transients of earthquake activity on a fault system by monitoring apparent stress, ground motion and clustering

Damaging earthquakes result from the evolution of stress in the brittle upper-crust, but the understanding of the mechanics of faulting cannot be achieved by only studying the large ones, which are rare. Considering a fault as a complex system, microearthquakes allow to set a benchmark in the system evolution. Here, we investigate the possibility to detect when a fault system starts deviating from a predefined benchmark behavior by monitoring the temporal and spatial variability of different micro-and-small magnitude earthquakes properties. We follow the temporal evolution of the apparent stress and of the event-specific residuals of ground shaking. Temporal and spatial clustering properties of microearthquakes are monitored as well. We focus on a fault system located in Southern Italy, where the Mw 6.9 Irpinia earthquake occurred in 1980. Following the temporal evolution of earthquakes parameters and their time-space distribution, we can identify two long-lasting phases in the seismicity patterns that are likely related to high pressure fluids in the shallow crust, which were otherwise impossible to decipher. Monitoring temporal and spatial variability of micro-to-small earthquakes source parameters at near fault observatories can have high potential as tool for providing us with new understanding of how the machine generating large earthquakes works

The waveform similarity approach to identify dependent events in instrumental seismic catalogues

In this paper, waveform similarity analysis is adapted and implemented in a declustering procedure to identify foreshocks and aftershocks, to obtain instrumental catalogues that are cleaned of dependent events and to perform an independent check of the results of traditional declustering techniques. Unlike other traditional declustering methods (i.e. windowing techniques), the application of cross-correlation analysis allows definition of groups of dependent events (multiplets) characterized by similar location, fault mechanism and propagation pattern. In this way the chain of intervening related events is led by the seismogenetic features of earthquakes. Furthermore, a time-selection criterion is used to define time-independent seismic episodes eventually joined (on the basis of waveform similarity) into a single multiplet. The results, obtained applying our procedure to a test data set, show that the declustered catalogue is drawn by the Poisson distribution with a degree of confidence higher than using the Gardner and Knopoff method. The declustered catalogues, applying these two approaches, are similar with respect to the frequency–magnitude distribution and the number of earthquakes. Nevertheless, the application of our approach leads to declustered catalogues properly related to the seismotectonic background and the reology of the investigated area and the success of the procedure is ensured by the independence of the results on estimated location errors of the events collected in the raw catalogue

Introduction of seismic source directivity on hazard map

The seismic hazard maps are mainly influenced by the uncertainty associated to the ground motion predictive equation (GMPE). This uncertainty represents the unexplained part of the ground motion and it is mostly related to the choice of the model’s variables. In fact the representation of the ground motion through the GMPEs is simple compared to the complexity of the physical process involved: if only the magnitude and distance are taken into account, GMPEs predicts isoseismals curves that are expected to be isotropic around the hypocenter or along the fault. Instead, the presence of a fault plane across which a process of failure in shear develops makes this general formulation reliable only on average. In fact this failure is responsible of an asymmetry in the seismic radiation known, since Ben-Menhaem (PhD1961), as directivity effect. While the general knowledge of the earthquakes is treated explicitly in the empirical prediction, specific trends like the directivity effects are hidden in the uncertainty sigma. A way to reduce the sigma is therefore to refine the seismic seismic source description inside the GMPEs (e.g. NGA project, Power et al, Earthquake Spectra, 2008). In this framework we propose a strategy to introduce the directivity in the GMPEs and to study its effect on uncertainties and on hazard maps. For this purpose, we have used two different directivity models acting on the GMPE as corrective factors: one proposed by Somerville et al. (Seis.Res.Lett.1997) and the other one proposed by Spudich and Chiou (Earthquake Spectra 2008).The first factor depends on geometrical parameters and comes from theoretical deduction. The second one includes many source parameters and it is a hybrid factor, which functional formulation is deduced from the theory, calibrated on synthetic simulations and scaled on data. The classic hazard equation is then adapted in order to increase the number of source parameters (i.e. adding one integral over the parametric space for each new variable involved) and taking into account the corrective factors for directivity (Spagnuolo, PhD2010). We present the comparisons of hazard maps depending on the directivity factor and on the probability density functions of the fault strike and of the rupture “laterality”

An automatically generated high-resolution earthquake catalogue for the 2016–2017 Central Italy seismic sequence, including P and S phase arrival times

The 2016–2017 central Italy earthquake sequence began with the first main shock near the town of Amatrice on August 24 (Mw 6.0), and was followed by two subsequent large events near Visso on October 26 (Mw 5.9) and Norcia on October 30 (Mw 6.5), plus a cluster of four events with Mw > 5.0 within few hours on 18 January 2017. The affected area had been monitored before the sequence started by the permanent Italian National Seismic Network (RSNC), and was enhanced during the sequence by temporary stations deployed by the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology and the British Geological Survey. By the middle of September, there was a dense network of 155 stations, with a mean separation in the epicentral area of 6–10 km, comparable to the most likely earthquake depth range in the region. This network configuration was kept stable for an entire year, producing 2.5 TB of continuous waveform recordings. Here we describe how this data was used to develop a large and comprehensive earthquake catalogue using the Complete Automatic Seismic Processor (CASP) procedure. This procedure detected more than 450 000 events in the year following the first main shock, and determined their phase arrival times through an advanced picker engine (RSNI-Picker2), producing a set of about 7 million P- and 10 million S-wave arrival times. These were then used to locate the events using a non-linear location (NLL) algorithm, a 1-D velocity model calibrated for the area, and station corrections and then to compute their local magnitudes (ML). The procedure was validated by comparison of the derived data for phase picks and earthquake parameters with a handpicked reference catalogue (hereinafter referred to as ‘RefCat’). The automated procedure takes less than 12 hr on an Intel Core-i7 workstation to analyse the primary waveform data and to detect and locate 3000 events on the most seismically active day of the sequence. This proves the concept that the CASP algorithm can provide effectively real-time data for input into daily operational earthquake forecasts, The results show that there have been significant improvements compared to RefCat obtained in the same period using manual phase picks. The number of detected and located events is higher (from 84 401 to 450 000), the magnitude of completeness is lower (from ML 1.4 to 0.6), and also the number of phase picks is greater with an average number of 72 picked arrival for a ML = 1.4 compared with 30 phases for RefCat using manual phase picking. These propagate into formal uncertainties of ±0.9 km in epicentral location and ±1.5 km in depth for the enhanced catalogue for the vast majority of the events. Together, these provide a significant improvement in the resolution of fine structures such as local planar structures and clusters, in particular the identification of shallow events occurring in parts of the crust previously thought to be inactive. The lower completeness magnitude provides a rich data set for development and testing of analysis techniques of seismic sequences evolution, including real-time, operational monitoring of b-value, time-dependent hazard evaluation and aftershock forecasting

Ground motion models for Molise region (Southern Italy)

On October 31st and November 1st, 2002 two moderate earthquakes of moment magnitude Mw=5.7 (INGV-Harvard European-Mediterranean Regional Centroid-Moment tensor project) occurred in southern Italy. After the mainshocks, felt in many municipalities of the Molise and Puglia region, a strong motion and a seismic temporary network were installed in the epicentral area and surrounding regions. The strong motion network was composed by 9 stations, integrating the accelerometers of the permanent Rete Accelerometrica Nazionale (RAN network), and operated until December 2003. The strong motion data set is composed by 195 recordings from 51 earthquakes (2.5<Ml<5.4) recorded by 29 accelerometers (Dipartimento della Protezione Civile et al., 2004). In addition to the strong motion network, several Italian research institutions (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, INGV; Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e Geofisica, INOGS; Dipartimento per lo studio del Territorio e delle sue Risorse, University of Genoa, Dip.Te.Ris) installed a temporary regional network, composed by 35 seismic stations. This network aimed at monitoring and studying the evolution in time and space of the seismic sequence. More than 1900 aftershocks were recorded in the period November 1st - December 5th, 2002 (Chiarabba et al., 2005). The unified velocity-acceleration data set has been considered to derive ground motion models for peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity for both maximum horizontal and vertical components. The results obtained for the Molise area have been compared with the attenuation pattern of the Umbria-Marche region (central Italy), that was recently investigated by Bindi et al. (2006). The remarkable differences observed indicate the need of a regional attenuation relation for the area and the need of further investigations, to better identify the role of source characteristics, anelastic and geometric attenuation and site effects in the evaluation of peak ground motion values

Empirical Ground-Motion Prediction Equations for Northern Italy Using Weak- and Strong-Motion Amplitudes, Frequency Content, and Duration Parameters

The goals of this work are to review the Northern-Italy ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for amplitude parameters and to propose new GMPEs for frequency content and duration parameters. Approximately 10,000 weak and strong waveforms have been collected merging information from different neighboring regional seismic networks operating in the last 30 yr throughout Northern Italy. New ground-motion models, calibrated for epicentral distances ≤100 km and for both local (ML) and moment magnitude (Mw), have been developed starting from a high quality dataset (624 waveforms) that consists of 82 selected earthquakes with ML and Mw up to 6.3 and 6.5, respectively. The vertical component and the maximum of the two horizontal components of motion have been considered, for both acceleration (peak ground horizontal acceleration [PGHA] and peak ground vertical acceleration [PGVA]) and velocity (peak ground horizontal velocity [PGHV] and peak ground vertical velocity [PGVV]) data. In order to make comparisons with the most commonly used prediction equations for the Italian territory (Sabetta and Pugliese, 1996 [hereafter, SP96] and Ambraseys et al. 2005a,b [hereafter, AM05]) the coefficients for acceleration response spectra (spectral horizontal acceleration [SHA] and spectral vertical acceleration [SVA]) and for pseudovelocity response spectra (pseudospectral horizontal velocity [PSHV] and pseudospectral vertical velocity [PSVV]) have been calculated for 12 periods ranging between 0.04 and 2 sec and for 14 periods ranging between 0.04 and 4 sec, respectively. Finally, empirical relations for Arias intensities (IA), Housner intensities (IH), and strong motion duration (DV) have also been calibrated. The site classification based on Eurocode (hereafter, EC8) classes has been used (ENV, 1998, 2002). The coefficients of the models have been determined using functional forms with an independent magnitude decay rate and applying the random effects model (Abrahamson and Youngs, 1992; Joyner and Boore, 1993) that allow the determination of the interevent, interstation, and record-to-record components of variance. The goodness of fit between observed and predicted values has been evaluated using the maximum likelihood approach as in Spudich et al. (1999). Comparing the proposed GMPEs with SP96 and AM05, it is possible to observe a faster decay of predicted ground motion, in particular for distances greater than 25 km and magnitudes higher than 5.0. The result is an improvement in fit of about one order of size for magnitudes spanning from 3.5 to 4.5

Empirical ground motion prediction equations for northern italy using weak and strong motion amplitudes, frequency content and duration parameters

The aims of this work are to review the Northern-Italy ground motion prediction equations (hereinafter GMPEs) for amplitude parameters and to propose new GMPEs for frequency content and duration parameters. Approximately 10.000 weak and strong waveforms have been collected merging information from different neighbouring regional seismic networks operating in the last 30 years throughout Northern Italy. New ground motion models, calibrated for epicentral distances ≤ 100 km and for both local (Ml) and moment magnitude (Mw), have been developed starting from a high quality dataset (624 waveforms) which consists of 82 selected earthquakes with Ml and Mw up to 6.3 and 6.5 respectively. The vertical component and the maximum of the two horizontal components of motion have been considered, for both acceleration (PGHA and PGVA) and velocity (PGHV and PGVV) data. In order to make comparisons with the most commonly used prediction equations for the Italian territory (Sabetta and Pugliese, 1996 and Ambraseys et al. 2005a,b hereinafter named SP96 and AM05) the coefficients for acceleration response spectra (SHA and SVA) and for pseudo velocity response spectra (PSHV and PSVV) have been calculated for 12 periods ranging between 0.04 s and 2 s and for 14 periods ranging between 0.04 s and 4 s respectively. Finally, empirical relations for Arias and Housner Intensities (IA, IH) and strong motion duration (DV) have also been calibrated. The site classification based on Eurocode (hereinafter EC8) classes has been used (ENV, 1998). The coefficients of the models have been determined using functional forms with an independent magnitude decay rate and applying the random effects model (Abrahamson and Youngs, 1992; Joyner and Boore, 1993) that allow the determination of the inter-event, inter-station and record-to-record components of variance. The goodness of fit between observed and predicted values has been evaluated using the maximum likelihood approach as in Spudich et al. (1999). Comparing the proposed GMPEs both with SP96 and AM05 it is possible to observe a faster decay of predicted ground motion, in particular for distances greater than 25 km and magnitudes higher than 5.0. The result is a fit improvement of about one order of size for magnitudes spanning from 3.5 to 4.5

A microseismic study in a low seismicityarea: the 2001 site-response experimentin the Città di Castello Basin (Italy)

A site response experiment was performed in the basin of Città di Castello (a small town in Central Italy) in May 2001. This study is part of a project on the evaluation of seismic hazard in seismogenic areas funded by the Gruppo Nazionale Difesa dai Terremoti (GNDT). The experiment consisted of a dense fixed transect configuration with most of the stations recording in continuous mode, and several ambient noise measurements both in single station and in array configuration spread over the investigated area. The dense transect was composed of 26 seismic stations in a crosswise configuration with a maximum inter-station distance of 250 m. The stations were deployed in the southern part of the basin, from the eastern bedrock outcrop to the western edge, across the town. About 70 earthquakes were recorded during 10 days of deployment, generally low magnitude or regional events. We located 23 earthquakes and 17 of them were located using the waveform similarity approach at 4 stations outside the target area. These 4 stations were part of a dense temporary seismic network involved in a previous experiment of the same project, aimed at performing a high-resolution picture of the local seismicity. Delay analysis on the recorded waveforms allowed us to infer the basin geometry at depth and estimate the S-wave velocity of sediments. Moreover, we evaluated relative site response along the E-W transect by performing a standard spectral ratio. Amplification factors up to 9 are found inside the basin; at frequencies above 5 Hz stations closer to the edges show higher amplification, whereas stations located in the middle of the basin, where the alluvial sediments are thicker (CD11-CD14), show higher amplification below 5 Hz. We considered the average amplification in two frequency bands (1-5 Hz and 5-10 Hz), representative of the resonance frequency for 2-3 storey buildings and 1 storey houses,respectively. Our results suggest that the potential hazard for 2-3 storey buildings is higher in the center of the basin (amplification factor up to 6), and for 1 storey houses is higher at the edges (amplification factor up to 5)