Long run relationship between entry and exit: time series evidence from Turkish manufacturing industry

This paper investigates the long run relationship between entry and exit using aggregate annual data from the Turkish manufacturing industry for the period 1968-2001. The time series properties of the data imply that simple OLS regressions may yield spurious results. We employ both bivariate and multivariate models to test for Granger causality. Utilizing relatively new time series techniques, we find that exit Granger causes entry in the long run, but not vice versa. However, unlike many empirical findings in the literature, past exit has a negative effect on entry. Entrants seem to be put off by past exit in the long run. Hence, our results do not seem to support the replacement effect in the Turkish manufacturing industry in general. None of the other variables included in the multivariate analysis has significant effects on entry or exit. The generalized impulse responses between entry and exit confirm Granger causality results.

Oil prices and emerging market exchange rates

This paper investigates the role of oil prices in explaining the dynamics of selected emerging countries exchange rates. Using daily data series, the study concludes that a rise in oil price is leading to a significant appreciation in emerging economies currencies against the US dollar. In our study, we divide daily returns from 03/01/2003 to 02/06/2010 into 3 subsamples and test the role of oil price changes on exchange rate movements. We employ generalized impulse response functions to trace out the dynamic response of each exchange rate in three different time periods. Our findings suggest that oil price dynamics are changing significantly in the sample period and the relation between oil prices and exchange rates becomes more relevant after the 2008 financial crisis.oil prices; emerging market exchange rates; international financial markets; financial crisis

Oil prices and emerging market exchange rates

This paper investigates the role of oil prices in explaining the dynamics of selected emerging countries exchange rates. Using daily data series, the study concludes that a rise in oil price is leading to a significant appreciation in emerging economies currencies against the US dollar. In our study, we divide daily returns from 03/01/2003 to 02/06/2010 into 3 subsamples and test the role of oil price changes on exchange rate movements. We employ generalized impulse response functions to trace out the dynamic response of each exchange rate in three different time periods. Our findings suggest that oil price dynamics are changing significantly in the sample period and the relation between oil prices and exchange rates becomes more relevant after the 2008 financial crisis

In search of time-varying jumps during the turmoil periods : Evidence from crude oil futures markets

Prior literature demonstrates that energy prices are characterized by time-varying jumps. However, earlier studies do not investigate if the intensity of such jumps appears to be higher amid periods of extreme volatility in comparison to normal periods. Employing the GARCH-jump model, this study examines whether jumps occurring in energy prices are an indicator of market crashes. To serve this purpose, we consider several downturns in oil markets spanning over the last few years. Our empirical analyses reveal that the conditional expected number of jumps in WTI and Brent oil futures prices increases significantly amid the depression periods, which is, however, not the case when the market functions normally. We, therefore, conclude that such clusters of jumps may contain predictive information for oil market crashes and thus provide early signals of future downturns. The findings further show that crude oil volatility, the US equity VIX, and economic policy uncertainty play a significant role in explaining the time-dependent jumps during the turmoil periods. The findings of our research could be useful for investors participating in global crude oil markets and for policymakers watching out for the impact of energy prices on the economy.© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

ESSAYS ON LIFE CYCLE DYNASTIC DISCRETE CHOICE MODELS

Models of dynastic households have been traditionally used to analyze persistence in earnings and wealth across generations, more recently to study patterns of wealth and fertility, transfers to children and education choices. However most of those models have looked at the theoretical outcomes and there are some limited calibration studies. Some other literature follows the regression based techniques to answer empirical questions regarding the generational transfers. In Chapter 2 -co-authored with Gayle and Golan- we develop an estimator that makes the structural estimation of dynastic models feasible. We propose an estimation framework for dynastic models which allows the estimation of the problem in several steps. Our estimator compared to the full solution structural estimation known as the Nested Fixed Point Algorithm (NFXP) performs comparable in small samples while reducing the computation time considerably. A Monte Carlo exercise compares our estimator to the NFXP. We show that the alternative representation of the continuation value of the problem enables us to apply the Hotz and Miller (1993) estimation to the dynastic problem.Using data of two generations from the PSID, Chapter 3 estimates a dynastic life-cycle model with endogenous fertility, labor supply and inter-generational transfers. This chapter uses data on time spent with children and measures outcomes in terms of education. Education and skills both affect the children's earnings and marriage market outcomes stochastically. We contribute to the literature by measuring the returns in a life-cycle dynastic model in which fertility and time spent with children is endogenous and the different aspects of returns to investment (i.e. education and skill) in children are aggregated and measured in terms of their life-time utility. We model couples decisions as a noncooperative game and solve for a Markov Perfect Equilibrium (MPE) in pure strategies. Therefore the valuation functions of the dynastic model are not only the optimal solution to the problem given the state variables for the individual, but they are the best response valuation functions given the spouse's choice. This requires an equilibrium choice which we assume as MPE in pure strategies

Oil prices and emerging market exchange rates

This paper investigates the role of oil prices in explaining the dynamics of selected emerging countries exchange rates. Using daily data series, the study concludes that a rise in oil price is leading to a significant appreciation in emerging economies currencies against the US dollar. In our study, we divide daily returns from 03/01/2003 to 02/06/2010 into 3 subsamples and test the role of oil price changes on exchange rate movements. We employ generalized impulse response functions to trace out the dynamic response of each exchange rate in three different time periods. Our findings suggest that oil price dynamics are changing significantly in the sample period and the relation between oil prices and exchange rates becomes more relevant after the 2008 financial crisis

The Effect of Covid-19 Outbreak on Turkish Diesel Consumption Volatility Dynamics

We analyze the effect of the COVID-19 outbreak on volatility dynamics of the Turkish diesel market. We observe that a high volatility pattern starts around mid-April, 2020 and reaches its peak on 24/05/2020. This is due to the government imposed weekend curfews and bans on intercity travels. Two policy suggestions are provided. First is a temporary rearrangement of profit margins of dealers and liquid fuel distributors; and, second is a temporary tax regulation to compensate lost tax revenue

Neck muscle mass index as a predictor of post laryngectomy wound complications

Objective: We investigated the relationship between paravertebral muscle cross-sectional area (PVM CSA) at the third vertebra (C3) level using computerized tomography (CT) neck images and its relationship with complications after total laryngectomy. Design: Retrospective analysis of 60 advanced laryngeal cancer patients who underwent total laryngectomy was performed. The cross-sectional areas of paravertebral neck muscles using neck CT at C3 level images obtained preoperatively were analyzed. Results: A significant difference in PVM CSA between complication and no complication groups, F(1, 53 = 4.319, P = .043), was identified by ANCOVA. There were no significant differences in between-subject effects: T-stage (F = 1.652, P = .204), body mass index (F = 0.889, P = .35), albumin (F = .359, P = .552), age (F = 1.623 P = .208), and smoking (F = 4.319, P = .41). Conclusion: The PVM CSA measured at C3 level on pretreatment CT may help identify patients at higher risk of postoperative wound complications after total laryngectomy and who may particularly benefit from preoperative optimization of nutritional status