Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study

Data sharing: All data used in our study were obtained from the MCC Collaborative Research Network under a data-sharing agreement and cannot be made publicly available. Researchers can refer to collaborators of the Network, who are listed as coauthors of this Article (primary contact: Antonio Gasparrini, [email protected]), for information on accessing the data for each country. The R code is available on request, and a reproducible example is publicly available on the personal GitHub website of the first author (https://github.com/LinaMadaniyazi).For more on the MCC see https://mccstudy.lshtm.ac.uk/Supplementary Material is available online at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519623002693#sec1 .Background: Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected daily time series of mean temperature and mortality (all causes or non-external causes only) via the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative (MCC) Research Network. These data were collected during overlapping periods, spanning from Jan 1, 1969 to Dec 31, 2020. We projected daily mortality from Jan 1, 2000 to Dec 31, 2099, under four climate change scenarios corresponding to increasing emissions (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways [SSP] scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). We compared the seasonality in projected mortality between decades by its shape, timings (the day-of-year) of minimum (trough) and maximum (peak) mortality, and sizes (peak-to-trough ratio and attributable fraction). Attributable fraction was used to measure the burden of seasonality of mortality. The results were summarised by climate zones. Findings: The MCC dataset included 126 809 537 deaths from 707 locations within 43 countries or areas. After excluding the only two polar locations (both high-altitude locations in Peru) from climatic zone assessments, we analysed 126 766 164 deaths in 705 locations aggregated in four climate zones (tropical, arid, temperate, and continental). From the 2000s to the 2090s, our projections showed an increase in mortality during the warm seasons and a decrease in mortality during the cold seasons, albeit with mortality remaining high during the cold seasons, under all four SSP scenarios in the arid, temperate, and continental zones. The magnitude of this changing pattern was more pronounced under the high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), substantially altering the shape of seasonality of mortality and, under the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), shifting the mortality peak from cold seasons to warm seasons in arid, temperate, and continental zones, and increasing the size of seasonality in all zones except the arid zone by the end of the century. In the 2090s compared with the 2000s, the change in peak-to-trough ratio (relative scale) ranged from 0·96 to 1·11, and the change in attributable fraction ranged from 0·002% to 0·06% under the SSP5-8.5 (highest emission) scenario. Interpretation: A warming climate can substantially change the seasonality of mortality in the future. Our projections suggest that health-care systems should consider preparing for a potentially increased demand during warm seasons and sustained high demand during cold seasons, particularly in regions characterised by arid, temperate, and continental climates.This study was primarily supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (grant number JPMEERF20231007) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, provided by the Ministry of the Environment of Japan. MH was supported by the Japan Science and Technology Agency as part of the Strategic International Collaborative Research Program (grant number JPMJSC20E4). AG was supported by the UK Medical Research Council (grant number MR/V034162/1) and the EU's Horizon 2020 research project Exhaustion (grant number 820655). AU and JK were supported by the Czech Science Foundation (project 22–24920S). JJKJ was supported by the Academy of Finland (grant number 310372; Global Health Risks Related to Atmospheric Composition and Weather Consortium). FS was supported by the Italian Ministry of University and Research, Department of Excellence project 2023–2027, Rethinking Data Science—Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications—University of Florence

Development and characterization of microsatellite markers in Astronotus crassipinis (Heckel, 1840)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Astronotus crassipinis is an important freshwater fish in the Amazon basin. Little is known about their population structure and genetic diversity. They live in Amazon varzea lakes and are territorial fish practicing mouth brood. Studies involving populations of A. crassipinis are of great importance for the conservation and management of this species. Therefore, thirteen microsatellite markers were developed for this species and characterized in 30 accessions from lakes Preto and Anana in Solimoes river and lake Piranha, located in the system Negro-Solimoes. The observed and expected heterozygosities ranged from 0.00 to 0.72 and 0.25 to 0.58, respectively. Alleles per locus varied from two to six, with an average of three. Three loci departed significantly from Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (P < 0.05) after Bonferroni correction. The value of Fis (f) ranged from -0.666 to 0.909 (average on -0.133). This new set of microsatellites will contribute towards studies of genetic diversity and conservation of A. crassipinis.11277280Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Amazonas (FAPEAM)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq

Vivências maternas na realidade de ter um filho autista: uma compreensão pela enfermagem Experiencias maternas en la realidad de tener un hijo autista: una comprensión para la enfermería Maternal experiences in the reality of having an autistic son: an understanding for nursing

Este estudo objetivou descrever a vivência de ser-mãe de criança autista. Utilizou-se abordagem qualitativa e referencial fenomenológico com conceitos de Martin Heidegger. Foram entrevistadas 14 mães de crianças autistas, com perguntas abertas, gravadas e transcritas na íntegra. O cenário foi a AMA-PI e dados produzidos em maio de 2006. A análise revela que as mães vivenciam a facticidade de ter um filho autista permeada por sentimentos de nulidade, fé e solidão. As mães também deixam de viver o seu cotidiano para viverem o cotidiano do filho. Ao assumirem sua condição existencial -estar-no-mundo e ser mãe de uma criança autista, passam a se compreenderem como ser capaz de lutar pelo bem-estar do filho, sem queixas, demonstrando abnegação, paciência e preocupação.<br>Este estudio que objetivó describir la experiencia de ser-madre del un niño autísta. El abordaje cualitativo fue utilizado según el referencial fenomenológico de Martín Heidegger. Catorce madres de niños autístas fueron entrevistadas con preguntas abiertas, grabadas y transcritas en la integra. El escenario de la investigación fue el AMA-PI y los datos producidos en mayo de 2006. El análisis reveló las madres viven profundamente la facticidad de tener un hijo autísta la cual es permeada por sensaciones negativas, fe y la soledad. Las madres tanbién dejam vivir su vida diaria para vivir la vida diaria de sus hijos. Al asumir la condición existencial - estar -en el mundo y ser madre de un niño autísta, ellas comenzan a comprender cómo son capazes de luchar por lo bien-estar de sus hojos, sin quejas, demuenstrando abnegación, paciencia y preocupación.<br>This study has as objective to describe the experience of being mother of an autistic child. A qualitative approach was accomplished according to the phenomenological concepts of Martin Heidegger. Fourteen mothers of autistic children had been interviewed, with semi-structured questions, tape-recorded and transcribed integrally. The local of data collection was the AMA-PI with data produced in May, 2006. The analysis revealed that mothers who live the facticity of having an autistic child is permeated by negative feelings, faith and solitudeness. Mothers also leave their dalily life to live their children's daily live. When assuming their existential condition - to be -in the world and to be mother of a autistic child, they begin to understand how to be capable to fight for their children's well-being, without complaints, demonstrating self-denial, patience and concern

Fatores de risco para mortalidade neonatal no município de Serra, Espírito Santo

Objetivou-se analisar os fatores de risco associados à mortalidade neonatal no município de Serra, ES. Realizou-se estudo de coorte não concorrente, utilizando a técnica de Linkage que pareou os 32.275 nascidos vivos com 273 óbitos neonatais ocorridos no período de 2001 a 2005, utilizando-se dados do SINASC e SIM. Após os ajustes na regressão logística, os fatores associados à mortalidade foram: mães sem instrução, idade materna < 15 anos e > 35 anos, nascer em hospital público, nenhuma consulta de pré-natal, peso ao nascer

Lesões traumato-ortopédicas nos atletas paraolímpicos Orthopaedic trauma injuries in paralympic athletes

Nos últimos anos, o desenvolvimento do esporte paraolímpico nacional e internacional tem estimulado maior participação dos portadores de deficiência em atividades desportivas, exigindo dos atletas incremento na intensidade e freqüência nos treinamentos e competições, o que impulsiona, ainda mais, os índices de lesões traumato-ortopédicas. Objetivou-se neste estudo de caráter descritivo-analítico verificar a prevalência de lesões traumato-ortopédicas em 82 atletas paraolímpicos selecionados de forma não probabilística intencional pertencentes às modalidades: natação = 37; tênis de mesa = 19; atletismo = 19; halterofilismo = 7, sendo 60 do sexo masculino e 22 do feminino, na faixa etária de 15 a 51 anos, participantes dos campeonatos mundiais nas referidas modalidades esportivas no ano de 2002. Utilizando-se como instrumento o prontuário médico do Departamento Médico do Comitê Paraolímpico Brasileiro preenchidos nesses eventos (técnica da observação através da história clínica - esportiva do atleta/anamnese (entrevistas com os atletas) e exame físico), os resultados revelaram prevalência de lesões nos atletas de atletismo (MMII = 64,9%, coluna = 19,3% e MMSS = 15,8%); halterofilismo (coluna = 54,5%, MMSS = 36,4% e MMII = 9,1%); natação (MMSS = 44,4%, coluna = 38,9 e MMII = 16,7%) e tênis de mesa (MMSS = 56%, coluna = 36% e MMII = 8%). Tais resultados nos permitem concluir que a prática esportiva de atletas paraolímpicos, pela intensidade de esforços na tentativa de superação, provoca lesões dessa natureza, o que recomenda diagnóstico e tratamento precoces, além de fortalecer as medidas preventivas dos atletas.<br>In the last few years, the development of national and international games for the physically challenged has encouraged greater participation of athletes with physical disabilities. This resulted in an increase in intensity and frequency of the training routines and competitions and higher levels of trauma-orthopedic lesions. The aim of this descriptive-comparative study is to analyze statistically the incidence of trauma-orthopedic lesions of 82 physically challenged athletes selected in a non intentional and no probalistic way. These athletes belong to various sports categories, as follows: swimming = 37, table tennis = 19, athletics = 19, power lifting = 7. Sixty are males, 24, females, they range in age from 15 to 51 and they all took part in the 2002 World Championship. Applying the medical records of the Brazilian Paraolimpic Committee medical department filled in at those events (the technique of observing the athlete clinical-sports files and medical examinations), the result showed a recurrence of lesions in athletes in the following sports: athletics (MMII = 64.9%, backbone 19.3% and MMSS = 15.8%; power lifting (backbone = 54.5%, MMSS = 36.4% and MMII = 9.1%); swimming (MMSS = 44.4%, backbone = 38.9% and MMII = 16.7%) and table tennis (MMSS = 56%, Backbone = 36% and MMII = 8%). Such results lead to the conclusion that the performing of sports of the physically challenged athletes, and also the intensity of the training routing to try to beat their previous marks and results, cause these kinds of lesion. In addition, it is important to reinforce the preventive measures to the athletes