Asymmetry of values, indigenous forces, and incumbent success in counterinsurgency: evidence from Chechnya

This article fills the gap in existing scholarship on asymmetric conflict, indigenous forces, and how socio-cultural codes shape the dynamics and outcomes of conflict transformation. Specifically, it identifies three key socio-cultural values commonplace in honorific societies: retaliation, hospitality, and silence. As sources of effective pro-insurgent violent mobilisation and support from among the local population, these values provide insurgents with an asymmetric advantage over much stronger incumbents. Using the case studies of the two Russian counterinsurgencies in Chechnya, the article shows the mechanisms on the ground through which Moscow’s deployment of indigenous forces against insurgents helped to stem the tide of conflict, reversing the insurgents’ initial advantage in terms of asymmetry of values

Blood revenge and violent mobilization: evidence from the Chechen Wars

Despite a considerable amount of ethnographic research into the phenomena of blood revenge and blood feud, little is known about the role of blood revenge in political violence, armed conflict, and irregular war. Yet blood revenge—widespread among many conflict-affected societies of the Middle East, North Africa, and beyond—is not confined to the realm of communal infighting, as previous research has presumed. An empirical analysis of Russia's two counterinsurgency campaigns in Chechnya suggests that the practice of blood revenge has functioned as an important mechanism in encouraging violent mobilization in the local population against the Russian troops and their Chechen proxies. The need to exact blood revenge has taken precedence over an individual's political views, or lack thereof. Triggered by the loss of a relative or humiliation, many apolitical Chechens who initially sought to avoid involvement in the hostilities or who had been skeptical of the insurgency mobilized to exact blood revenge to restore their individual and clan honor. Blood revenge functions as an effective, yet heavily underexplored, grievance-based mechanism encouraging violent mobilization in irregular wars

Defected and loyal? A case study of counter-defection mechanisms inside Chechen paramilitaries

Can former insurgents in the service of counterinsurgent paramilitaries be considered a perfectly loyal force? What mechanisms may help to deter subsequent defections of individuals who have already “betrayed” once? Drawing on a unique set of primary data, this article examines the effective counter-defection practices of Chechnya’s pro-Moscow paramilitaries toward prospective defectors from among ex-insurgents. It explores three interwoven mechanisms employed with various intensities to avert “double defections” at the peak of the locally fought counterinsurgency in Chechnya from 2000 to 2005. These mechanisms are: a) extrajudicial executions of recidivists and their relatives, b) initiation violence targeting insurgents’ relatives, and c) disclosure of the identities of defected insurgents who were responsible for killing insurgents in combat to the families of slain insurgents

Security Aspects of the Turkey’s Prospective EU Accession

The article explores different scenarios for Turkey’s prospective EU accession as related to issues of security. First, the author claims that a well-balanced, if not unified, EU policy is needed to address Turkey’s growing aspirations for a full-fledged EU membership. Second, the author argues that a serious analysis of modern Turkey’s geopolitical as well as internal environment is key to understanding the nature of Ankara’s desire to become an EU member. The author also emphasizes the importance of specific psychological-cultural aspects of an ongoing “Islamic-Christian” discourse both inside EU and beyond its borders, noting that in the specific case of Turkey, psychological-cultural issues are most likely to turn into serious security concerns

Why de facto states fail? Lessons from Chechen Republic of Ichkeria

This study seeks to improve our understanding of the causes leading to failure of de facto states. In contrast to the voluminous body of literature on sovereign state failure, the process of de facto state failure remains under-researched. Drawing upon the existing research on state failure and de facto statehood, we narrow down our theoretical explanations to a set of causes related to civil conflict, tribalism, and economic crisis. More specifically, we aim to examine the effects of tribalism, warlordism, ideological fractionalization, and economic deficiencies on the collapse and failure of de facto entities. We employ a case study of the interwar Chechen Republic of Ichkeria (1996–1999) to demonstrate how the above-detailed factors contributed toward the collapse of a de facto state

Ethnicity and conflict severity: accounting for the effect of co-ethnic and non-ethnic militias on battlefield lethality

How does the presence of armed pro-regime groups affect conflict lethality? This study examines the relationship between ethnicity, militia violence and conflict lethality in civil wars. We emphasise that differences in whether pro-regime militias were recruited in accordance with their ethnicity or not are critical in their influence upon conflict lethality, which we estimate in battlefield deaths. To that end, we categorise militias into groups recruited on their ethnic basis (co-ethnic militias) and those recruited regardless of their ethnicity (non-ethnic militias). We hypothesise that conflicts are more lethal when non-ethnic militias are involved. We link higher number of battle-deaths in conflicts with non-ethnic militias with the militia use of one-sided violence against civilians. Co-ethnic militias – that is militias recruited from the same ethnicity as rebels – are deployed amongst their co-ethnics and therefore tend to target civilians less than non-ethnic militias. This militia–civilian relationship has direct impact on conflict severity. To test our hypotheses we conduct global statistical analysis of 84 intrastate conflicts from 1989 to 2014

Russia’s role in the official peace process in South Ossetia

The aim of this article is to analyse the role of Russia in the transformation of the Georgian-Ossetian conflict and analyse this important period in the history of the Caucasus, where Georgia and its secessionist region of South Ossetia have been trying to find a peaceful solution to their post-war situation. Major milestones of the official peace process are set in the context of Russian-Georgian relations. We then proceed to the analysis of the internal changes within the Russian Federation at the turn of the millennium and try to find a connection between this internal transformation of Russia and the transformation of the conflict in South Ossetia. The most important factors behind the more assertive approach by the Russian Federation towards Georgia in the last decade are considered: internal centralisation of power and economic growth of the Russian Federation, the reinforcement of the importance of the South Caucasus as part of the geopolitical discourse within the Russian Federation, the deterioration in Russian-Georgian relations, and the suppression of the fear of the spill-over effect since the end of Second Chechen War

The Reflection of the Conflict in Chechnya in the Czech Society

The conflict in Chechnya has never gained prominence in Czech social discourse, its reflection has mainly been limited to the elites. These elites exerted influence upon the mass public which has shown a variable amount of interest in the events; most attention has been paid to the conflict during the outbreak of the First (1994) and Second (1999) Chechen War and later to the terrorist acts in Dubrovka (2002) and Beslan (2004). The discourse has been somewhat influenced by worldwide media patterns affected by great power policies (e.g. United States’ declaration of the war against terrorism), and it has been dominated by two opposing camps: those close to the former President Vaclav Havel on one side – People in Need (NGO), journalists from the Epicentrum agency (Petra Prochazkova, Jaromir Stetina), and Lidove noviny or Respekt among the media; and, on the other side, against them there was various opposition comprising e.g. 1) Czech Communists (KSCM), siding with Russia, and 2) Pragmatics (e.g. current President Vaclav Klaus), who have been criticizing the concept of human rights and/or its supremacy – as a cosmopolitan norm – over interests of sovereign nation states. In conclusion, the Chechen rebels have a significant part of silent support in the wider society. As less and less information about the development in the North Caucasus is available, the conflict at European outskirts disappears from the Czech society’s sight

Unrecognized states as a means of coercive diplomacy? Assessing the role of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Russia’s foreign policy in the South Caucasus

The scholarship on unrecognized or de facto states has been booming in the recent decades exploring this phenomenon from a variety of perspectives. Yet, as this article illustrates, a crucial accent on the instrumentalization of unrecognized states by regional actors – or, to put it differently, on unrecognized states as a source of coercive diplomacy – has been neglected. This article seeks to fill that gap by offering an empirical analysis of Russia’s instrumentalization of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as unrecognized states as a means of putting effective pressure on the Government in Tbilisi – usually with respect to issues unrelated to the unrecognized states themselves. More specifically, this article shows that Moscow has used three instruments (military deployment, passportization of residents of the unrecognized states and responsibility to protect)

Chechen War and the Russian Society

Since the beginning of the second Chechen war, Russia has experienced several shifts in domestic policy. From the very start of his presidency, Vladimir Putin pursued a policy of consolidating power while facing both the external and internal enemy represented by Chechen rebels. As a side effect, this has brought about an outburst of xenophobia and racism that has turned against all Caucasians. The antiterrorist campaign has had broad consequences, even outside the security field. The campaign, which was based on economic arguments, began with attacks on the media tycoons Vladimir Gusinskii and Boris Beresovskii, and was later widened to other selected oligarchs. Another set of changes brought about reforms to almost every aspect of state organization, including everything from the parliamentary electoral system to the local representative elections. Although it had been planned for a long time, the core of the reforms was enacted after the tragedy in Beslan in September 2004