Harnessing Social Media in the Modelling of Pandemics-Challenges and Opportunities.

As COVID-19 spreads throughout the world without a straightforward treatment or widespread vaccine coverage in the near future, mathematical models of disease spread and of the potential impact of mitigation measures have been thrust into the limelight. With their popularity and ability to disseminate information relatively freely and rapidly, information from social media platforms offers a user-generated, spontaneous insight into users' minds that may capture beliefs, opinions, attitudes, intentions and behaviour towards outbreaks of infectious disease not obtainable elsewhere. The interactive, immersive nature of social media may reveal emergent behaviour that does not occur in engagement with traditional mass media or conventional surveys. In recognition of the dramatic shift to life online during the COVID-19 pandemic to mitigate disease spread and the increasing threat of further pandemics, we examine the challenges and opportunities inherent in the use of social media data in infectious disease modelling with particular focus on their inclusion in compartmental models

Towards understanding crime dynamics in a heterogeneous environment:A mathematical approach

Crime data provides information on the nature and location of the crime but, in general, does not include information on the number of criminals operating in a region. By contrast, many approaches to crime reduction necessarily involve working with criminals or individuals at risk of engaging in criminal activity and so the dynamics of the criminal population is important. With this in mind, we develop a mechanistic, mathematical model which combines the number of crimes and number of criminals to create a dynamical system. Analysis of the model highlights a threshold for criminal efficiency, below which criminal numbers will settle to an equilibrium level that can be exploited to reduce crime through prevention. This efficiency measure arises from the initiation of new criminals in response to observation of criminal activity; other initiation routes - via opportunism or peer pressure - do not exhibit such thresholds although they do impact on the level of criminal activity observed. We used data from Cape Town, South Africa, to obtain parameter estimates and predicted that the number of criminals in the region is tending towards an equilibrium point but in a heterogeneous manner - a drop in the number of criminals from low crime neighbourhoods is being offset by an increase from high crime neighbourhoods

A public health approach to reducing violence within the CARICOM region

Widespread crime has become a worldwide problem so much so that violence is now ranked fourth globally in its contribution to disability-adjusted life years in the 10 to 24 age group. Homicides, a surrogate marker of violent crime, have shown an upward trend in almost all of the CARICOM countries, and homicide rates over the past 3 years have consistently increased, though the pattern of violence varies by country. This background has informed the need for greater emphasis on the need for a different approach to dealing with crime in the CARICOM region. The CARICOM governments recently hosted a symposium on crime and violence as a public health issue. The public health approach to crime has been used with measurable success in different parts of the world and, more recently in Trinidad, one of the CARICOM countries. The paper outlines the outcomes of the symposium and discusses its implications for the region.</p