Effects of Transit Signal Priority on Traffic Safety: Interrupted Time Series Analysis of Portland, Oregon, Implementations

Transit signal priority (TSP) has been implemented to transit systems in many cities of the United States. In evaluating TSP systems, more attention has been given to its operational effects than to its safety effects. Existing studies assessing safety effects of TSP reported mixed results, indicating that the safety effects of TSP vary in different contexts. In this study, TSP implementations in Portland, Oregon, were assessed using interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) on month-to-month changes in number of crashes from January 1995 to December 2010. Single-group and controlled ITSA were conducted for all crashes, property-damage-only crashes, fatal and injury crashes, pedestrian-involved crashes, and bike-involved crashes. Evaluation of the post-intervention period (2003 to 2010) showed a reduction in all crashes on street sections with TSP (-4.5 percent), comparing with the counterfactual estimations based on the control group data. The reduction in property-damage-only crashes (-10.0 percent) contributed the most to the overall reduction. Fatal and injury crashes leveled out after TSP implementation but did not change significantly comparing with the control group. Pedestrian and bike-involved crashes were found to increase in the post-intervention period with TSP, comparing with the control group. Potential reasons to these TSP effects on traffic safety were discussed.Comment: Published in Accident Analysis & Preventio

A Causal Set Black Hole

We explicitly compute the causal structure of the Schwarzschild black hole spacetime, by providing an algorithm to decide if any pair of events is causally related. The primary motivation for this study comes from discrete quantum gravity, in particular the causal set approach, in which the fundamental variables can be thought of as the causal ordering of randomly selected events in spacetime. This work opens the way to simulating non-conformally flat spacetimes within the causal set approach, which may allow one to study important questions such as black hole entropy and Hawking radiation on a full four dimensional causal set black hole.Comment: 22 pages, 9 figures, LaTeX; response to referee comment

A Model of Consistent Node Types in Signed Directed Social Networks

Signed directed social networks, in which the relationships between users can be either positive (indicating relations such as trust) or negative (indicating relations such as distrust), are increasingly common. Thus the interplay between positive and negative relationships in such networks has become an important research topic. Most recent investigations focus upon edge sign inference using structural balance theory or social status theory. Neither of these two theories, however, can explain an observed edge sign well when the two nodes connected by this edge do not share a common neighbor (e.g., common friend). In this paper we develop a novel approach to handle this situation by applying a new model for node types. Initially, we analyze the local node structure in a fully observed signed directed network, inferring underlying node types. The sign of an edge between two nodes must be consistent with their types; this explains edge signs well even when there are no common neighbors. We show, moreover, that our approach can be extended to incorporate directed triads, when they exist, just as in models based upon structural balance or social status theory. We compute Bayesian node types within empirical studies based upon partially observed Wikipedia, Slashdot, and Epinions networks in which the largest network (Epinions) has 119K nodes and 841K edges. Our approach yields better performance than state-of-the-art approaches for these three signed directed networks.Comment: To appear in the IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Network Analysis and Mining (ASONAM), 201

Do Stronger Age Discrimination Laws Make Social Security Reforms More Effective?

Supply-side Social Security reforms to increase employment and delay benefit claiming among older individuals may be frustrated by age discrimination. We test for policy complementarities between supply-side Social Security reforms and demand-side efforts to deter age discrimination, specifically studying whether stronger state-level age discrimination protections enhanced the impact of the increases in the Social Security Full Retirement Age (FRA) that occurred in the past decade. The evidence indicates that, for older individuals who were “caught” by the increase in the FRA, benefit claiming reductions and employment increases were sharper in states with stronger age discrimination protections.

Malliavin calculus for backward stochastic differential equations and application to numerical solutions

In this paper we study backward stochastic differential equations with general terminal value and general random generator. In particular, we do not require the terminal value be given by a forward diffusion equation. The randomness of the generator does not need to be from a forward equation, either. Motivated from applications to numerical simulations, first we obtain the $L^p$-H\"{o}lder continuity of the solution. Then we construct several numerical approximation schemes for backward stochastic differential equations and obtain the rate of convergence of the schemes based on the obtained $L^p$-H\"{o}lder continuity results. The main tool is the Malliavin calculus.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AAP762 the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Black String Entropy from Anomalous D-brane Couplings

The quantum corrections to the counting of statistical entropy for the 5+1-dimensional extremal black string in type-IIB supergravity with two observers are studied using anomalous Wess-Zumino actions for the corresponding intersecting D-brane description. The electric-magnetic duality symmetry of the anomalous theory implies a new symmetry between D-string and D-fivebrane sources and renders opposite sign for the RR charge of one of the intersecting D-branes relative to that of the black string. The electric-magnetic symmetric Hilbert space decomposes into subspaces associated with interior and exterior regions and it is shown that, for an outside observer, the expectation value of a horizon area operator agrees with the deviation of the classical horizon area in going from extremal to near-extremal black strings.Comment: 12 pages, LaTeX; Corrections and clarifying comments adde

Feynman-Kac formula for heat equation driven by fractional white noise

We establish a version of the Feynman-Kac formula for the multidimensional stochastic heat equation with a multiplicative fractional Brownian sheet. We use the techniques of Malliavin calculus to prove that the process defined by the Feynman-Kac formula is a weak solution of the stochastic heat equation. From the Feynman-Kac formula, we establish the smoothness of the density of the solution and the H\"{o}lder regularity in the space and time variables. We also derive a Feynman-Kac formula for the stochastic heat equation in the Skorokhod sense and we obtain the Wiener chaos expansion of the solution.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOP547 the Annals of Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aop/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Efficient Consumer Altruism and Fair Trade

Consumers have shown willingness to pay a premium for products labeled as "Fair Trade" and to prefer retailers that are seen as more generous to their suppliers and employees. We define a fair trade product as a bundle of a consumption good and a donation. An altruistic consumer will only choose this bundle over its separate elements if the bundle is less expensive. Thus, for fair trade to be sustainable in a competitive equilibrium, an efficiency must be generated. In general, the first-best level of investment (to reduce the retailer's cost or boosts quality) cannot be achieved when it is non-verifiable. However, the altruism of the consumer facilitates a more efficient contract: by paying the supplier more, the retailer can both extract more consumer surplus and increase the level of contracted investment, while preserving incentive compatibility. We provide empirical and anecdotal evidence for the assumptions and predictions of this model, focusing on the coffee industry.