Der Wert von Versorgungssicherheit mit Strom: Evidenz für deutsche Haushalte

Dieser Artikel untersucht auf Basis einer Befragung von mehr als 5.000 Haushaltsvorständen, wie viel sie für Versorgungssicherheit mit Strom zu zahlen bereit sind. Alternativ zur Zahlungsbereitschaft (willingness to pay, WTP) wird auch nach der Bereitschaft gefragt, gegen eine Entschädigungszahlung auf ein gewisses Maß an Versorgungssicherheit zu verzichten (willingness to accept, WTA). In Übereinstimmung mit zahlreichen empirischen Studien finden wir mittlere WTA-Werte, die deutlich über den mittleren WTP-Werten für die Vermeidung eines unangekündigten, vierstündigen Stromausfalls liegen. Den Grund für diese Diskrepanz sehen wir darin, dass die bekundeten Entschädigungsforderungen für den Verzicht auf Versorgungssicherheit tendenziell über dem tatsächlichen Wert liegen, der der Versorgungssicherheit mit Strom beigemessen wird, wohingegen die dafür bekundete Zahlungsbereitschaft tendenziell untertrieben wird

The burden of Germany’s energy transition

Germany’s energy transition has been accompanied by a near doubling of power prices for private households since the outset of the new millennium. Millions of poor households and those that are close to the poverty threshold are likely to suffer from these increases in electricity cost. Focusing on low-income households, this paper illustrates the distributional implications of Germany’s energy transition by investigating their electricity cost burden between 2006 and 2012, using panel data from the German Residential Energy Consumption Survey (GRECS). Our estimates suggest that in 2012, on average, households at poverty risk allocated 5.5% of their income to power and, hence, paid nearly as much for covering their electricity consumption as for heating purposes. Given Germany’s ambitious targets to expand the share of costly renewable technologies in electricity consumption to 50% in 2030, which has broad support among the electorate, it is to be expected that households’ expenditure for power will increase in the upcoming years. As it is likely that Germany continues its widely recognized energy policy, this raises the urgent question of how to mitigate the regressive impact of further increasing electricity prices on poor households. Direct cash transfers are suggested here as a non-distortionary instrument for easing the burden of high prices, one that is directly targeted at those endangered by energy poverty

Consumer inattention, heuristic thinking and the role of energy labels

Energy labels have been introduced in many countries to increase consumers’ attention to energy use in purchase decisions of durables. In a discrete-choice experiment among about 5,000 households, we implement randomized information treatments to explore the effects of various kinds of energy labels on purchasing decisions. Our results show that adding annual operating cost information to the EU energy label promotes the choice of energy-efficient durables. In addition, we find that a majority of participants value efficiency classes beyond the economic value of the underlying energy use differences. Our results further indicate that displaying operating cost affects choices through two distinct channels: it increases the attention to operating cost and reduces the valuation of efficiency class differences

Risk perception of climate change: Empirical evidence for Germany

The perception of risks resulting from climate change is a key factor in motivating individual adaptation and prevention behavior, as well as for the support of climate policy measures. Using a generalized ordered logit approach and drawing on a unique data set originating from two surveys conducted in 2012 and 2014, each among more than 6,000 German households, we analyze the determinants of individual risk perception associated with three kinds of natural hazards: heat waves, storms, and floods. Our focus is on the role of objective risk measures and experience with these natural hazards, whose frequency is likely to be affected by climate change. In line with the received literature, the results suggest that personal experience with adverse events and, even more importantly, personal damage therefrom are strong drivers of individual risk perception

Heterogeneity in residential electricity consumption: A quantile regression approach

Reducing household electricity consumption is of central relevance to climate policy given the share of 12.2% of the residential sector in greenhouse gas emissions. Drawing on data originating from the German Residential Energy Survey (GRECS), this paper estimates the contribution of individual appliances to household electricity demand using the conditional demand approach, which relies on readily obtainable information on appliance ownership. Moving beyond the standard focus of mean regression, we employ a quantile regression approach to capture the heterogeneity in the contribution of each appliance according to the conditional distribution of household electricity consumption. This heterogeneity indicates that there are quite large technical potentials for efficiency improvements and electricity conservation in private households. We also find substantial differences in the end-use shares across households originating from the opposite tails of the electricity consumption distribution, highlighting the added value of applying quantile regression methods in estimating consumption rates of electric appliances

Combining uncertainty with uncertainty to get certainty? Efficiency analysis for regulation purposes

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) and stochastic frontier analysis (SFA), as well as combinations thereof, are widely applied in incentive regulation practice, where the assessment of efficiency plays a major role in regulation design and benchmarking. Using a Monte Carlo simulation experiment, this paper compares the performance of six alternative methods commonly applied by regulators. Our results demonstrate that combination approaches, such as taking the maximum or the mean over DEA and SFA efficiency scores, have certain practical merits and might offer an useful alternative to strict reliance on a singular method. In particular, the results highlight that taking the maximum not only minimizes the risk of underestimation, but can also improve the precision of efficiency estimation. Based on our results, we give recommendations for the estimation of individual efficiencies for regulation purposes and beyond

The price response of residential electricity demand in Germany: A dynamic approach

Due to growing concerns about climate change, policy-makers from all around the world establish measures, such as carbon taxes, to lower electricity demand and energy consumption in general. Drawing on household panel data from the German Residential Energy Consumption Survey (GRECS) that span over nine years (2006-2014) and employing the sum of regulated price components as an instrument for the likely endogenous electricity price, we gauge the response of residential electricity demand to price increases on the basis of the dynamic Blundell-Bond estimator to account for potential simultaneity and endogeneity problems, as well as the Nickell bias. Estimating short- and long-run price elasticities of -0.44 and -0.66, respectively, our results indicate that price measures may be effective in dampening residential electricity consumption, particularly in the long run. Yet, we also find that responses to price changes are very heterogeneous across household groups

Reforming the EU emissions trading system: An alternative to the market stability reserve

Prices for emission allowances in Europe’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) have remained low for many years. This fact has given rise to controversies on whether there is a need for a fundamental reform of the ETS. Potential reform proposals include the introduction of a price floor for certificates and a market stability reserve (MSR), which is a rule-based mechanism to steering the market volume of allowances and the preferred approach of the European Commission. With the introduction of the MRS, the Commission aims at increasing and stabilizing certificate prices in the medium- and long-term. In this article, we alternatively recommend retaining the ETS as it is, rather than supplementing it by introducing a minimum price floor or a market stability reserve. Instead, mistakes from the past should be corrected by a single intervention: the final elimination of those 900 million allowances that were taken out of the market in 2014, but would again emerge in the market in 2019 and 2020 via backloading

Climate change, population ageing and public spending: Evidence on individual preferences

Economic theory, as well as empirical research, suggest that elderly people prefer public spending on policies yielding short-term benefits. This might be bad news for policies aimed at combating climate change: while the unavoidable costs of these policies arise today, the expected benefits occur in the distant future. Drawing on data from over 12,000 households and using the ordered logit and the generalized ordered logit model, we analyze whether attitudes towards climate change and climate policies, as well as public spending preferences, differ with respect to age. Our estimates show that elderly people are less concerned about climate change, but more concerned about other global challenges. Furthermore, they are less likely to support climate-friendly policies, such as the subsidization of renewables, and allocate less public resources to environmental policies. Thus, our results suggest that the ongoing demographic change in industrialized countries may undermine climate policies