Time-varying Fiscal Multipliers Identified by Systematic Component: A Bayesian Approach to TVP-SVAR model

Abstract This study estimates time varying fiscal multipliers from the aspect of fiscal policy rules derived from the systematic component along the line of “Agnostic Identification Procedure” proposed by Caldara and Kamps (2017) for the US economy between 1952:Q1-2018:Q1. To do so, we adopt time-varying parameter structural vector autoregressive (TVP-SVAR) with MCMC procedure by a Bayesian approach, and identify both of government spending and tax cut shocks using the zero and sign restrictions method proposed by Arias, Rubio-Ramirez and Waggoner (2018). And we compare those values with time varying version identified by standard sign restriction along the line of Mountford and Uhlig (2009). Our estimation reports that time-varying fiscal multipliers of output by government spending rule could be nearly double for one year but decline to unity after eight years, and seem to have been very stable for long terms such as sixty years. By contrast, those of tax cut rule are more fluctuate and negative for long run except the 1990’s

Status of adult outpatients with congenital heart disease in Japan: The Japanese Network of Cardiovascular Departments for Adult Congenital Heart Disease Registry

BackgroundThe Japanese Network of Cardiovascular Departments for Adult Congenital Heart Disease (JNCVD-ACHD) was founded in 2011 for the lifelong care of adult patients with congenital heart disease (ACHD patients). This network maintains the first Japanese ACHD registry.Methods and resultsFrom 2011 to 2019, the JNCVD-ACHD registered 54 institutions providing specialized care for ACHD patients in 32 of the 47 prefectures in Japan. The registry collected data on the disease profile for 24,048 patients from 50 institutions and the patient characteristics for 9743 patients from 24 institutions. The most common ACHDs were atrial septal defect (20.5 %), ventricular septal defect (20.5 %), tetralogy of Fallot (12.9 %), and univentricular heart (UVH)/single ventricle (SV; 6.6 %). ACHD patients without biventricular repair accounted for 37.0 % of the population. Also examined were the serious anatomical and/or pathophysiological disorders such as pulmonary arterial hypertension (3.0 %) including Eisenmenger syndrome (1.2 %), systemic right ventricle under biventricular circulation (sRV-2VC; 2.8 %), and Fontan physiology (6.0 %). The sRV-2VC cases comprised congenitally corrected transposition of the great arteries without anatomical repair (61.9 %) and transposition of the great arteries with atrial switching surgery (38.1 %). The primary etiology (86.4 %) for Fontan physiology was UVH/SV. In addition, developmental/chromosomal/genetic disorders were heterotaxy syndromes (asplenia, 0.9 %; polysplenia, 0.7 %), trisomy 21 (4.0 %), 22q11.2 deletion (0.9 %), Turner syndrome (0.2 %), and Marfan syndrome (1.1 %).ConclusionsAlthough the specific management of ACHD has systematically progressed in Japan, this approach is still evolving. For ideal ACHD care, the prospective goals for the JNCVD-ACHD are to create local networks and provide a resource for multicenter clinical trials to support evidence-based practice

Heredity in Multiple System Atrophy

We investigated the family histories of 157 Japanese patients with probable or possible multiple system atrophy (MSA). A family history of neurodegenerative disorders was only detected in three MSA patients (1.9%). We evaluated these patients by careful neurological examination, neuroimaging studies, and genetic studies to exclude hereditary spinocerebellar ataxia with a similar clinical phenotype to MSA. The results indicated that one of them had a family history of MSA. Although the familial presence of neurodegenerative disorders is rare in MSA patients, the existence of such cases suggests that MSA may have a genetic background

MSA-C is the predominant clinical phenotype of MSA in Japan : Analysis of 142 patients with probable MSA

We investigated the clinical features and mode of disease progression in 142 patients with probable multiple system atrophy (MSA) according to the Consensus Criteria. The subjects included 84 men and 58 women with a mean age at onset of 58.2 ± 7.1 years (range: 38–79 years). Cerebellar signs were detected in 87.3% of these patients at the time of initial examination, and were found in 95.1% of them at latest follow-up. MSA-C was diagnosed in 83.8% of the patients at their first examination. Parkinsonism was initially detected in 28.9% of the patients, increasing to 51.4% at the latest follow-up. Among all of the subjects, only 16.2% were classified as having MSA-P on initial examination. At the latest follow-up, parkinsonian features had become predominant over cerebellar features in 24.6% of the 65 patients with MSA-C who were followed for more than 3 years. Although parkinsonism usually masked the signs of cerebellar involvement in MSA-C patients, none of the patients with MSA-P at an early stage showed predominance of cerebellar features at the latest follow-up. Parkinsonism is the predominant feature of MSA among Western patients, even at an early stage, but this study showed that cerebellar deficits are the main feature in Japanese patients. This difference of disease manifestations between ethnic groups suggests that genetic factors may influence the clinical phenotype of MSA

Development of measurement of log volume by analyzing 3D images in yard

原木の流通取引において材積計測が必須工程であるが, 山元での材積計測システムが確立していないため売主と買主の信頼関係が構築できていない。そのため流通コストのかかる原木市場の大型選木機等に依存せねばならないことが林業の不採算要因の一つとなっている。そこで山元等での材積計測システムを開発・定着化させ, 山元から工場等への直送販売体制の構築を推進するため, 原木の径級を複数台のデジタルカメラにより撮影した画像を三次元認識することにより材積を計測するシステムを開発し, その精度を検証した。なお, 材積計算法は日本農林規格(JAS)によるものとした。Measurement of log volume is essential for log distribution and transactions, and the lack of such a measurement system that can be used where trees are first cut presents an obstacle to smooth on-site transactions and has made the log industry dependent on large-scale grading machinery. The development and adoption of a system for log measurement would make possible the construction of a system whereby logs could be sold to the factory directly from the cutting site. A portable measurement system was developed using two digital cameras to create stereoscopic images of the log diameter class. Using computerized 3D image analysis log volume was calculated according to the Japanese Agricultural Standard (square of top end multiplied by length). The precision of the system was demonstrated