A framework for cumulative risk assessment in the 21st century

The ILSI Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) has developed a framework to support a transition in the way in which information for chemical risk assessment is obtained and used (RISK21). The approach is based on detailed problem formulation, where exposure drives the data acquisition process in order to enable informed decision-making on human health safety as soon as sufficient evidence is available. Information is evaluated in a transparent and consistent way with the aim of optimizing available resources. In the context of risk assessment, cumulative risk assessment (CRA) poses additional problems and questions that can be addressed using the RISK21 approach. The focus in CRA to date has generally been on chemicals that have common mechanisms of action. Recently, concern has also been expressed about chemicals acting on multiple pathways that lead to a common health outcome, and non-chemical other conditions (non-chemical stressors) that can lead to or modify a common outcome. Acknowledging that CRAs, as described above, are more conceptually, methodologically and computationally complex than traditional single-stressor risk assessments, RISK21 further developed the framework for implementation of workable processes and procedures for conducting assessments of combined effects from exposure to multiple chemicals and non-chemical stressors. As part of the problem formulation process, this evidence-based framework allows the identification of the circumstances in which it is appropriate to conduct a CRA for a group of compounds. A tiered approach is then proposed, where additional chemical stressors and/or non-chemical modulating factors (ModFs) are considered sequentially. Criteria are provided to facilitate the decision on whether or not to include ModFs in the formal quantitative assessment, with the intention to help focus the use of available resources to have the greatest potential to protect public health

Problem formulation for risk assessment of combined exposures to chemicals and other stressors in humans

When the human health risk assessment/risk management paradigm was developed, it did not explicitly include a "problem formulation" phase. The concept of problem formulation was first introduced in the context of ecological risk assessment (ERA) for the pragmatic reason to constrain and focus ERAs on the key questions. However, this need also exists for human health risk assessment, particularly for cumulative risk assessment (CRA), because of its complexity. CRA encompasses the combined threats to health from exposure via all relevant routes to multiple stressors, including biological, chemical, physical and psychosocial stressors. As part of the HESI Risk Assessment in the 21st Century (RISK21) Project, a framework for CRA was developed in which problem formulation plays a critical role. The focus of this effort is primarily on a chemical CRA (i.e., two or more chemicals) with subsequent consideration of non-chemical stressors, defined as "modulating factors" (ModFs). Problem formulation is a systematic approach that identifies all factors critical to a specific risk assessment and considers the purpose of the assessment, scope and depth of the necessary analysis, analytical approach, available resources and outcomes, and overall risk management goal. There are numerous considerations that are specific to multiple stressors, and proper problem formulation can help to focus a CRA to the key factors in order to optimize resources. As part of the problem formulation, conceptual models for exposures and responses can be developed that address these factors, such as temporal relationships between stressors and consideration of the appropriate ModFs

Japanese Encephalitis—A Pathological and Clinical Perspective

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the leading form of viral encephalitis in Asia. It is caused by the JE virus (JEV), which belongs to the family Flaviviridae. JEV is endemic to many parts of Asia, where periodic outbreaks take hundreds of lives. Despite the catastrophes it causes, JE has remained a tropical disease uncommon in the West. With rapid globalization and climatic shift, JEV has started to emerge in areas where the threat was previously unknown. Scientific evidence predicts that JEV will soon become a global pathogen and cause of worldwide pandemics. Although some research documents JEV pathogenesis and drug discovery, worldwide awareness of the need for extensive research to deal with JE is still lacking. This review focuses on the exigency of developing a worldwide effort to acknowledge the prime importance of performing an extensive study of this thus far neglected tropical viral disease. This review also outlines the pathogenesis, the scientific efforts channeled into develop a therapy, and the outlook for a possible future breakthrough addressing this killer disease

Heterogeneity in glucose response curves during an oral glucose tolerance test and associated cardiometabolic risk

We aimed to examine heterogeneity in glucose response curves during an oral glucose tolerance test with multiple measurements and to compare cardiometabolic risk profiles between identified glucose response curve groups. We analyzed data from 1,267 individuals without diabetes from five studies in Denmark, the Netherlands and the USA. Each study included between 5 and 11 measurements at different time points during a 2-h oral glucose tolerance test, resulting in 9,602 plasma glucose measurements. Latent class trajectories with a cubic specification for time were fitted to identify different patterns of plasma glucose change during the oral glucose tolerance test. Cardiometabolic risk factor profiles were compared between the identified groups. Using latent class trajectory analysis, five glucose response curves were identified. Despite similar fasting and 2-h values, glucose peaks and peak times varied greatly between groups, ranging from 7-12 mmol/L, and 35-70 min. The group with the lowest and earliest plasma glucose peak had the lowest estimated cardiovascular risk, while the group with the most delayed plasma glucose peak and the highest 2-h value had the highest estimated risk. One group, with normal fasting and 2-h values, exhibited an unusual profile, with the highest glucose peak and the highest proportion of smokers and men. The heterogeneity in glucose response curves and the distinct cardiometabolic risk profiles may reflect different underlying physiologies. Our results warrant more detailed studies to identify the source of the heterogeneity across the different phenotypes and whether these differences play a role in the development of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease

Evidence and rationale for the World Health Organization recommended standards for Japanese encephalitis surveillance

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the most important form of viral encephalitis in Asia. Surveillance for the disease in many countries has been limited. To improve collection of accurate surveillance data in order to increase understanding of the full impact of JE and monitor control programs, World Health Organization (WHO) Recommended Standards for JE Surveillance have been developed. To aid acceptance of the Standards, we describe the process of development, provide the supporting evidence, and explain the rationale for the recommendations made in the document.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A JE Core Working Group was formed in 2002 and worked on development of JE surveillance standards. A series of questions on specific topics was initially developed. A literature review was undertaken and the findings were discussed and documented. The group then prepared a draft document, with emphasis placed on the feasibility of implementation in Asian countries. A field test version of the Standards was published by WHO in January 2006. Feedback was then sought from countries that piloted the Standards and from public health professionals in forums and individual meetings to modify the Standards accordingly.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>After revisions, a final version of the JE surveillance standards was published in August 2008. The supporting information is presented here together with explanations of the rationale and levels of evidence for specific recommendations.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Provision of the supporting evidence and rationale should help to facilitate successful implementation of the JE surveillance standards in JE-endemic countries which will in turn enable better understanding of disease burden and the impact of control programs.</p

Utilizing FEM-Software to quantify pre- and post-interventional cardiac reconstruction data based on modelling data sets from surgical ventricular repair therapy (SVRT) and cardiac resynchronisation therapy (CRT)

BACKGROUND: Left ventricle (LV) 3D structural data can be easily obtained using standard transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) devices but quantitative pre- and intraoperative volumetry and geometry analysis of the LV is presently not feasible in the cardiac operation room (OR). Finite element method (FEM) modelling is necessary to carry out precise and individual volume analysis and in the future will form the basis for simulation of cardiac interventions. METHOD: A Philips/HP Sonos 5500 ultrasound device stores volume data as time-resolved 4D volume data sets. In this prospective study TomTec LV Analysis TEE(© )Software was used for semi-automatic endocardial border detection, reconstruction, and volume-rendering of the clinical 3D echocardiographic data. With the software FemCoGen(© )a quantification of partial volumes and surface directions of the LV was carried out for two patients data sets. One patient underwent surgical ventricular repair therapy (SVR) and the other a cardiac resynchronisation therapy (CRT). RESULTS: For both patients a detailed volume and surface direction analysis is provided. Partial volumes as well as normal directions to the LV surface are pre- and post-interventionally compared. CONCLUSION: The operation results for both patients are quantified. The quantification shows treatment details for both interventions (e.g. the elimination of the discontinuities for CRT intervention and the segments treated for SVR intervention). The LV quantification is feasible in the cardiac OR and it gives a detailed and immediate quantitative feedback of the quality of the intervention to the medical

Optimizing search strategies to identify randomized controlled trials in MEDLINE

BACKGROUND: The Cochrane Highly Sensitive Search Strategy (HSSS), which contains three phases, is widely used to identify Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) in MEDLINE. Lefebvre and Clarke suggest that reviewers might consider using four revisions of the HSSS. The objective of this study is to validate these four revisions: combining the free text terms volunteer, crossover, versus, and the Medical Subject Heading CROSS-OVER STUDIES with the top two phases of the HSSS, respectively. METHODS: We replicated the subject search for 61 Cochrane reviews. The included studies of each review that were indexed in MEDLINE were pooled together by review and then combined with the subject search and each of the four proposed search strategies, the top two phases of the HSSS, and all three phases of the HSSS. These retrievals were used to calculate the sensitivity and precision of each of the six search strategies for each review. RESULTS: Across the 61 reviews, the search term versus combined with the top two phases of the HSSS was able to find 3 more included studies than the top two phases of the HSSS alone, or in combination with any of the other proposed search terms, but at the expense of missing 56 relevant articles that would be found if all three phases of the HSSS were used. The estimated time needed to finish a review is 1086 hours for all three phases of the HSSS, 823 hours for the strategy versus, 818 hours for the first two phases of the HSSS or any of the other three proposed strategies. CONCLUSION: This study shows that compared to the first two phases of the HSSS, adding the term versus to the top two phases of the HSSS balances the sensitivity and precision in the reviews studied here to some extent but the differences are very small. It is well known that missing relevant studies may result in bias in systematic reviews. Reviewers need to weigh the trade-offs when selecting the search strategies for identifying RCTs in MEDLINE