STOCHASTIC WEALTH DYNAMICS AND RISK MANAGEMENT AMONG A POOR POPULATION

The literature on economic growth and development has focused considerable attention on questions of risk management and the possibility of multiple equilibria associated with poverty traps. We use herd history data collected among pastoralists in southern Ethiopia to study stochastic wealth dynamics among a very poor population. These data yield several novel findings. Although covariate rainfall shocks plainly matter, household-specific factors, including own herd size, account for most observed variability in wealth dynamics. Despite longstanding conventional wisdom about common property grazing lands, we find no statistical support for the tragedy of the commons hypothesis. It appears that past studies may have conflated costly self-insurance with stocking rate externalities. Such self-insurance is important in this setting because weak livestock markets and meager social insurance cause wealth to fluctuate largely in response to biophysical shocks. These shocks move households between multiple dynamic wealth equilibria toward which households converge following nonconvex path dynamics. The lowest equilibrium is consistent with the notion of a poverty trap. These findings have broad implications for the design of development and relief strategies among a poor population extraordinarily vulnerable to climatic shocks.common property, covariate risk, Ethiopia, idiosyncratic risk, poverty traps, social insurance, Risk and Uncertainty, O1, Q12,

Electron impact promoted fragmentation of alkyl-N-(1-Phenylethyl)-carbamates of primary, secondary and tertiary alcohols

Mass spectra of alkyl carbamates derived from primary, secondary, and teriary alcohols by use of deuterium labeling and high resolution mass spectroscop

Acute military psychiatric casualties from the war in Iraq

Background: The view that most military personnel evacuated from war zones are suffering from combat stress reactions, or are otherwise traumatised by the horrors of war, has an impact on all aspects of military psychiatry. Aims: To delineate the reasons for psychiatric aeromedical evacuation from Iraq from the start of build-up of UK forces in January 2003 until the end of October that year, 6 months after the end of formal hostilities. Method: A retrospective study was conducted of field and in-patient psychiatric assessments of 116 military personnel evacuated to the UK military psychiatric in-patient facility in Catterick Garrison. Results: Evacuees were mainly non-combatants (69%). A significant proportion were in reserve service (21%) and had a history of contact with mental health services (37%). Only 3% had a combat stress reaction. In over 85% of cases evacuation was for low mood attributed to separation from friends or family, or difficulties adjusting to the environment. Conclusions: These findings have implications especially for screening for suitability for deployment, and for understanding any longer-term mental health problems arising in veterans from Iraq

Application of remote sensing to state and regional problems

There are no author-identified significant results in this report

Experiences of LNU Neophyte Teachers: Cues for a Viable Mentoring Program

The usefulness of teachers’ mentoring program cannot be underestimated. Some universities and colleges in the Philippines have been implementing this kind of program with different approaches, content, and scope. The extent of mentoring programs to improve teaching careers has been studied here and abroad. Results remain inconclusive. This case study with a phenomenological peg has explored the lived experiences of neophyte teachers through semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions. Their experiences in the first years of teaching were characterized by uncertainties, anxieties, struggles, and difficulties emanating from their lack of expertise on various aspects related to teaching practice, lack of knowledge about the culture and context of the university in which they were teaching, and lack of knowledge about the learners. With these specific inadequacies identified and the novice teachers’ implicit desire to be mentored, cues for a viable neophyte teacher’s mentoring program are drawn in the context of a teacher-training university

Marketing Percolation

A percolation model is presented, with computer simulations for illustrations, to show how the sales of a new product may penetrate the consumer market. We review the traditional approach in the marketing literature, which is based on differential or difference equations similar to the logistic equation (Bass 1969). This mean field approach is contrasted with the discrete percolation on a lattice, with simulations of "social percolation" (Solomon et al 2000) in two to five dimensions giving power laws instead of exponential growth, and strong fluctuations right at the percolation threshold.Comment: to appear in Physica

Application of remote sensing to state and regional problems

The author has identified the following significant results. The Lowndes County data base is essentially complete with 18 primary variables and 16 proximity variables encoded into the geo-information system. The single purpose, decision tree classifier is now operational. Signatures for the thematic extraction of strip mines from LANDSAT Digital data were obtained by employing both supervised and nonsupervised procedures. Dry, blowing sand areas of beach were also identified from the LANDSAT data. The primary procedure was the analysis of analog data on the I2S signal slicer