Prediction of severe thunderstorm events with ensemble deep learning and radar data

The problem of nowcasting extreme weather events can be addressed by applying either numerical methods for the solution of dynamic model equations or data-driven artificial intelligence algorithms. Within this latter framework, the most used techniques rely on video prediction deep learning methods which take in input time series of radar reflectivity images to predict the next future sequence of reflectivity images, from which the predicted rainfall quantities are extrapolated. Differently from the previous works, the present paper proposes a deep learning method, exploiting videos of radar reflectivity frames as input and lightning data to realize a warning machine able to sound timely alarms of possible severe thunderstorm events. The problem is recast in a classification one in which the extreme events to be predicted are characterized by a an high level of precipitation and lightning density. From a technical viewpoint, the computational core of this approach is an ensemble learning method based on the recently introduced value-weighted skill scores for both transforming the probabilistic outcomes of the neural network into binary predictions and assessing the forecasting performance. Such value-weighted skill scores are particularly suitable for binary predictions performed over time since they take into account the time evolution of events and predictions paying attention to the value of the prediction for the forecaster. The result of this study is a warning machine validated against weather radar data recorded in the Liguria region, in Italy

Variable echo time imaging for detecting the short T2* components of the sciatic nerve: a validation study

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop and validate an MRI protocol based on a variable echo time (vTE) sensitive to the short T2* components of the sciatic nerve. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 15 healthy subjects (M/F: 9/6; age: 21-62) were scanned at 3T targeting the sciatic nerve at the thigh bilaterally, using a dual echo variable echo time (vTE) sequence (based on a spoiled gradient echo acquisition) with echo times of 0.98/5.37 ms. Apparent T2* (aT2*) values of the sciatic nerves were calculated with a mono-exponential fit and used for data comparison. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in aT2* related to side, sex, age, and BMI, even though small differences for side were reported. Good-to-excellent repeatability and reproducibility were found for geometry of ROIs (Dice indices: intra-rater 0.68-0.7; inter-rater 0.70-0.72) and the related aT2* measures (intra-inter reader ICC 0.95-0.97; 0.66-0.85) from two different operators. Side-related signal-to-noise-ratio non-significant differences were reported, while contrast-to-noise-ratio measures were excellent both for side and echo. DISCUSSION: Our study introduces a novel MR sequence sensitive to the short T2* components of the sciatic nerve and may be used for the study of peripheral nerve disorders

Clinical outcome of kidney transplantation in HIV-infected recipients: a retrospective study

Kidney transplantation is a safe and effective option for HIV-positive (HIV+) patients. We conducted a retrospective study on HIV+ kidney transplant recipients who underwent transplantation from March 2008 to September 2016.Inclusion criteria for transplantation were CD4þ T-cell count 200 per mm3 and undetectable HIV load. The current study reports the outcome of 19 HIV+ recipients, mostly of Caucasian origin (79%) with a median age of 50 years (interquartile range [IQR], 42–52), who were followed up for a median period of 2.4 years (IQR, 1.2–4.6) after transplantation. Compared with HIV-negative (HIV-) controls, HIV+ recipients had similar one- and three-year graft and patient survival, but significantly lower five-year patient survival (P¼0.03). The differences in graft outcome became less evident with the analysis of death-censored graft survival rates. Cumulative incidence of allograft rejection at one year was 32.9%. Rates of infections were not particularly elevated and HIV replication remained well controlled in all but one patient. A high prevalence of metabolic and endocrine complications (68%) was reported after transplantation. Further studies are needed to evaluate long-term outcomes of HIV+ recipients who underwent kidney transplantation

A FAST MODEL FOR FLOW AND POLLUTANT DISPERSION AT THE NEIGHBOURHOOD SCALE

This paper deals with the development of a simple urban model for flow and dispersion in the urban canopy layer (UCL). The flow module of the model calculates spatially-averaged wind profiles adopting a technique recently proposed in the literature, which is based on a balance equation between the obstacle drag force and the local shear stress. Spatially-averaged wind profiles are used as input for a newly proposed dispersion model which solves the advection-diffusion equation at neighbourhood scale. In the model, the effects of the buildings within the UCL are taken into account by means of morphological parameters λf and λp (the ratios of plan area and frontal area of buildings to the lot area). Spatially-averaged mean concentrations output by the developed model are compared with numerical results obtained from the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model FLUENT. In particular, two configurations of constant height UCL have been considered, which refer to as λp = λf = 0.16 and λp = λf = 0.44. The originality of the study is that the dispersion model itself integrates the equations without explicitly resolving the flow around individual buildings but still accounts for their effects. The computational costs are much reduced which makes it suitable for the predictions of concentrations over the neighbourhood scale in an operational context

TM5-FASST: a global atmospheric source–receptor model for rapid impact analysis of emission changes on air quality and short-lived climate pollutants

This paper describes, documents, and validates the TM5-FAst Scenario Screening Tool (TM5-FASST), a global reduced-form air quality source–receptor model that has been designed to compute ambient pollutant concentrations as well as a broad range of pollutant-related impacts on human health, agricultural crop production, and short-lived pollutant climate metrics, taking as input annual pollutant emission data aggregated at the national or regional level. The TM5-FASST tool, providing a trade-off between accuracy and applicability, is based on linearized emission-concentration sensitivities derived with the full chemistry-transport model TM5. The tool has been extensively applied in various recent critical studies. Although informal and fragmented validation has already been performed in various publications, this paper provides a comprehensive documentation of all components of the model and a validation against the full TM5 model. We find that the simplifications introduced in order to generate immediate results from emission scenarios do not compromise the validity of the output and as such TM5-FASST is proven to be a useful tool in science-policy analysis. Furthermore, it constitutes a suitable architecture for implementing the ensemble of source–receptor relations obtained in the frame of the HTAP modelling exercises, thus creating a link between the scientific community and policy-oriented users.</p

Pilot Study on Quantitative Cervical Cord and Muscular MRI in Spinal Muscular Atrophy: Promising Biomarkers of Disease Evolution and Treatment?

Introduction: Nusinersen is a recent promising therapy approved for the treatment of spinal muscular atrophy (SMA), a rare disease characterized by the degeneration of alpha motor neurons (αMN) in the spinal cord (SC) leading to progressive muscle atrophy and dysfunction. Muscle and cervical SC quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (qMRI) has never been used to monitor drug treatment in SMA. The aim of this pilot study is to investigate whether qMRI can provide useful biomarkers for monitoring treatment efficacy in SMA. Methods: Three adult SMA 3a patients under treatment with nusinersen underwent longitudinal clinical and qMRI examinations every 4 months from baseline to 21-month follow-up. The qMRI protocol aimed to quantify thigh muscle fat fraction (FF) and water-T2 (w-T2) and to characterize SC volumes and microstructure. Eleven healthy controls underwent the same SC protocol (single time point). We evaluated clinical and imaging outcomes of SMA patients longitudinally and compared SC data between groups transversally. Results: Patient motor function was stable, with only Patient 2 showing moderate improvements. Average muscle FF was already high at baseline (50%) and progressed over time (57%). w-T2 was also slightly higher than previously published data at baseline and slightly decreased over time. Cross-sectional area of the whole SC, gray matter (GM), and ventral horns (VHs) of Patients 1 and 3 were reduced compared to controls and remained stable over time, while GM and VHs areas of Patient 2 slightly increased. We found altered diffusion and magnetization transfer parameters in SC structures of SMA patients compared to controls, thus suggesting changes in tissue microstructure and myelin content. Conclusion: In this pilot study, we found a progression of FF in thigh muscles of SMA 3a patients during nusinersen therapy and a concurrent slight reduction of w-T2 over time. The SC qMRI analysis confirmed previous imaging and histopathological studies suggesting degeneration of αMN of the VHs, resulting in GM atrophy and demyelination. Our longitudinal data suggest that qMRI could represent a feasible technique for capturing microstructural changes induced by SMA in vivo and a candidate methodology for monitoring the effects of treatment, once replicated on a larger cohort

Leftovers:The presence of manufacture-derived aquatic lipids in Alaskan Pottery

Lipids preserved within the walls of ancient pottery vessels are routinely analysed to reveal their original contents. The provenience of aquatic lipids in pottery is generally connected to vessel function (e.g., for cooking or storing fish, shellfish and aquatic mammals). However, ethnographic reports from early historic Alaska mention the use of aquatic oils for waterproofing low-fired pottery. Results of lipid residue studies on Alaskan pottery reflect an exclusive function of pottery to process aquatic resources. However, can one be sure these residues are the product of vessel function and not a remnant of the manufacturing process? The study presents the results of an experiment where the preservation of aquatic lipids during the firing process at different temperatures was measured. It was found that nearly all lipids were removed at firing temperatures of ≥ 400°C. Petrographic analysis of Alaskan pottery samples indicates that firing temperatures were generally &gt; 550°C but &lt; 800°C. The contribution of pre-firing manufacture-derived lipids to samples fired at these temperatures may be regarded as negligible. While the possible presence of aquatic lipids from post-firing surface treatments cannot be excluded, such treatments appear unnecessary for well-fired pottery.</p

Mitochondrial Localization of ABC Transporter ABCG2 and Its Function in 5-Aminolevulinic Acid-Mediated Protoporphyrin IX Accumulation

Accumulation of protoporphyrin IX (PpIX) in malignant cells is the basis of 5-aminolevulinic acid (ALA)-mediated photodynamic therapy. We studied the expression of proteins that possibly affect ALA-mediated PpIX accumulation, namely oligopeptide transporter-1 and -2, ferrochelatase and ATP-binding cassette transporter G2 (ABCG2), in several tumor cell lines. Among these proteins, only ABCG2 correlated negatively with ALA-mediated PpIX accumulation. Both a subcellular fractionation study and confocal laser microscopic analysis revealed that ABCG2 was distributed not only in the plasma membrane but also intracellular organelles, including mitochondria. In addition, mitochondrial ABCG2 regulated the content of ALA-mediated PpIX in mitochondria, and Ko143, a specific inhibitor of ABCG2, enhanced mitochondrial PpIX accumulation. To clarify the possible roles of mitochondrial ABCG2, we characterized stably transfected-HEK (ST-HEK) cells overexpressing ABCG2. In these ST-HEK cells, functionally active ABCG2 was detected in mitochondria, and treatment with Ko143 increased ALA-mediated mitochondrial PpIX accumulation. Moreover, the mitochondria isolated from ST-HEK cells exported doxorubicin probably through ABCG2, because the export of doxorubicin was inhibited by Ko143. The susceptibility of ABCG2 distributed in mitochondria to proteinase K, endoglycosidase H and peptide-N-glycosidase F suggested that ABCG2 in mitochondrial fraction is modified by N-glycans and trafficked through the endoplasmic reticulum and Golgi apparatus and finally localizes within the mitochondria. Thus, it was found that ABCG2 distributed in mitochondria is a functional transporter and that the mitochondrial ABCG2 regulates ALA-mediated PpIX level through PpIX export from mitochondria to the cytosol