Novel Approaches to Predicting Plant Species’ Movement under Climate Change

Current models predict that up to 60% of species are at a greater risk of extinction due to climate change. This increased risk is largely due to the challenge of adapting to a new climate or tracking existing climate conditions to a new location. Existing habitats are expected to shift at a rate of 0.08 to 1.26 kilometers per year due to changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic variables. Most models currently used to predict species responses to climate change rely on unrealistic dispersal assumptions and statistical instead of mechanistic structures. With improved access to applicable datasets and modeling capabilities, we generate predictions as to which types of species will be able to track their environment. We will use statistical approximations of trait data to generate virtual plant species with dispersal, demography, and functional traits, and an analytical integrodifference model that includes realistic dispersal kernels and demographic information to inform the potential for each species to follow climatic shifts based on their unique characteristics. While the ecological data has become more available, virtual species are essential to this approach, as these data tend to be sparse. From these models, a rate of spread based on dispersal and demography for each species can be generated and compared to the expected velocity of climate change globally and for each biome. This will provide an estimate of how many species could go extinct as a result of their inability to track their environments, allowing responsible parties to prioritize efforts to anticipate and mitigate the potentially disastrous consequences of large scale extinction. Preliminary results indicate that approximately 80% of plant species will be unable to track their current habitat conditions, meaning that a large majority of species will be required to adapt to their new habitats in order to survive

How to Shred GNAR(ly) Problems: Tools, Techniques & Resources to Help Address Epic Housing Challenges

The purpose of this document is to summarize key takeaways and resources from our 6-part webinar series about housing affordability and short-term rental challenges facing Gateway and Natural Amenity Region (GNAR) communities in the west

The Influence of Soilborne Pathogens on Seedling Mortality

Understanding the coexistence of a large number of species has long been one of the most fundamental questions in ecology. Several general hypotheses have been advanced, including, for example, niche differentiation, complexity of habitat, and the role of specialized predators and pathogens. The Janzen-Connell hypothesis was initially proposed to explain the unusually high diversity of tree species in tropical forest systems. This effect cumulates in a conspecific “Dead Zone” surrounding a parent tree due to species-specific seed predation and pathogenic infection. A ring of successful seedling establishment away from the crown of the parent tree can be expected, bounded on the outside by the maximum distance of seed dispersal. The “Dead Zone” can easily be colonized by other species, however, which promotes local species diversity. Spatial patterns of distance- and density-dependent mortality predicted by the Janzen-Connell hypothesis have been found in plant communities world-wide. Host-specific soilborne pathogens, specifically oomycetes, have been shown to play an important role in seedling establishment patterns around individual trees. This project aims to develop our understanding of how these patterns can arise from soilborne pathogens by development of a continuous multi-scale spatial simulation model. The model will employ empirically-derived functions and parameters that describe life histories of plants and pathogens, including seed and pathogen dispersal and infection. The results of these interactions will determine spatial arrangements for mature trees, which will in turn drive the next generation of seed dispersal and therefore pathogen mortality. We expect plant-pathogen interactions will drive the development of over-dispersed spatial patterns of trees at the population level. Results which reflect field data would indicate that our initial conditions and the structure of our model reflect the processes which govern real host-pathogen systems

How to Shred GNAR(ly) Problems: An Innovative Webinar Series Addressing Housing Affordability Issues in Utah and Across the West

Housing affordability is a critical issue in many Gateway and Natural Amenity Region (GNAR) communities. The extreme increase in home prices during the COVID-19 pandemic have made it an even bigger challenge for residents. In response, the GNAR Initiative created a six-part interactive webinar series providing tools to address housing affordability and short-term rental management

Boom Town: Amenity Migration in the Rural West and the Rise of the Zoom Town Series Summary

The purpose of this document is to summarize key takeaways and resources from our 5-part webinar series about amenity migration in the rural west

Planning for a GNARly Future: Reimagining Planning to Empower Your Community

The purpose of this document is to summarize key takeaways and resources from our 5-part online learning series featuring planning solutions to challenges facing Gateway and Natural Amenity Region (GNAR) communities in the west

Effects of Soil-Borne Pathogens on Seedling Establishment Patterns in Forest Systems

The Janzen-Connell mechanism is proposed to maintain plant diversity: predators and diseases of seeds reduce the number of seeds that survive near a parent tree, but allow seeds far from the parent tree to grow into adulthood. In the area where seeds don’t survive, seedlings from other tree species which are not affected by the seed consumer can grow. At large scales, this effect is thought to increase overall plant diversity. Soil-borne pathogens can contribute to seed mortality in this way, but we don’t know how important different parts of their lifecycle are in creating Janzen-Connell patterns. To determine the role of soil-borne pathogens in the development of Janzen-Connell patterns, we constructed a simulation model to examine how tree and pathogen characteristics affect plant spatial patterns. Under specific combinations of tree and pathogen characteristics, we found that pathogens could create Janzen-Connell patterns. The most important parameters were how far trees dispersed their seeds, and how many seeds a tree produced in a year. These characteristics determined how much of an impact the pathogens were able to have on the tree population because they rely on the density of seeds to determine how far they can spread and how many spores they will produce

PENINGKATAN PENGETAHUAN DAN KETERAMPILAN MENYIKAT GIGI DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN MEDIA POSTER DAN KALENDER INTERAKTIF SEHAT MERAWAT GIGI

Anak–anak yang tinggal di panti asuhan seringkali mengalami kesulitan dalam melakukan pemeliharaan kebersihan gigi dan mulutnya.. Untuk mengatasi permasalahan tersebut diperlukan alat bantu bersifat tahan lama , aman serta mudah digunakan dan anak dapat memahami suatu konsep pemeliharaan kesehatan gigi dan mulut. Media kombinasi Poster dan Kalender Interaktif Pemeliharaan Kesehatan Gigi merupakan alat yang dapat digunakan  untuk mengenalkan suatu konsep  dengan cara yang mudah, aktif, kreatif, dan menyenangkan. Alat peraga kombinasi ini terdiri dari berbagai perangkat dengan bahan. Jenis pengabdian masyarakat berupa kerjasama   dengan 2   mitra  yaitu   Pengelola Panti Asuhan Cemara  sebagai    mitra-1 dan   Pondok Yatim Daarul Aitam sebagai  mitra-2. Mitra-1 dan mitra-2 berperan sebagai pemangku kepentingan bertugas untuk menggerakkan anak-anak panti serta memberi dukungan penuh terhadap kegiatan. Kegiatan pengabdian masyarakat dilaksanakan penyuluhan kesehatan gigi dengan menggunakan poster, pembagian kalender interaktif, sarana menyikat gigi, demonstrasi menyikat gigi dan pemantauan hasil penyuluhan dan monitoring program 21 hari menyikat gigi. Terdapat peningkatan pengetahuan pemeliharaan kesehatan gigi dan mulut dengan kategori baik pada mitra panti asuhan dari 42,8% menjadi 89,8 %. Hasil observasi menunjukkan bahwa teknik menyikat gigi pada anak panti asuhan menjadi lebih terampil pada kategori benar  dari  10,2 %. menjadi 87,7% setelah diberikan edukasi sebanyak 3 kali. Kegiatan pengabdian masyarakat yang berbasis edukasi cara menyikat gigi yang benar dan penerapan  program  21  hari  sikat  gigi  pagi  dan  malam  dengan   pemantauan penggunaan kalender interaktif dapat meningkatkan status tingkat pengetahuan dan keterampilan menyikat gigi yang benar.