Uncertainty estimation for operational ocean forecast products-a multi-model ensemble for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea

Multi-model ensembles for sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface currents (SSC), and water transports have been developed for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea using outputs from several operational ocean forecasting models provided by different institutes. The individual models differ in model code, resolution, boundary conditions, atmospheric forcing, and data assimilation. The ensembles are produced on a daily basis. Daily statistics are calculated for each parameter giving information about the spread of the forecasts with standard deviation, ensemble mean and median, and coefficient of variation. High forecast uncertainty, i.e., for SSS and SSC, was found in the Skagerrak, Kattegat (Transition Area between North Sea and Baltic Sea), and the Norwegian Channel. Based on the data collected, longer-term statistical analyses have been done, such as a comparison with satellite data for SST and evaluation of the deviation between forecasts in temporal and spatial scale. Regions of high forecast uncertainty for SSS and SSC have been detected in the Transition Area and the Norwegian Channel where a large spread between the models might evolve due to differences in simulating the frontal structures and their movements. A distinct seasonal pattern could be distinguished for SST with high uncertainty between the forecasts during summer. Forecasts with relatively high deviation from the multi-model ensemble (MME) products or the other individual forecasts were detected for each region and each parameter. The comparison with satellite data showed that the error of the MME products is lowest compared to those of the ensemble members

The accuracy and precision of radiostereometric analysis in monitoring tibial plateau fractures

Background and purpose: The application of radiostereometric analysis (RSA) to monitor stability of tibial plateau fractures during healing is both limited and yet to be validated. We therefore evaluated the accuracy and precision of RSA in a tibial plateau fracture model. Methods: Combinations of 3, 6, and 9 markers in a lateral condyle fracture were evaluated with reference to 6 proximal tibial arrangements. Translation and rotation accuracy was assessed with displacement-controlled stages, while precision was assessed with dynamic double examinations. A comparison of error according to marker number and arrangement was completed with 2-way ANOVA models. Results: The results were improved using more tantalum markers in each segment. In the fracture fragment, marker scatter in all axes was achieved by a circumferential arrangement (medial, anterior, and lateral) of the tantalum markers above the fixation devices. Markers placed on either side of the tibial tuberosity and in the medial aspect of the fracture split represented the proximal tibial reference segment best. Using 6 markers with this distribution in each segment, the translation accuracy (root mean square error) was less than 37 μm in all axes. The precision (95% confidence interval) was less than ± 16 μm in all axes in vitro. Rotation, tested around the x-axis, had an accuracy of less than 0.123° and a precision of ± 0.024°. Interpretation: RSA is highly accurate and precise in the assessment of lateral tibial plateau fracture fragment movement. The validation of our center's RSA system provides evidence to support future clinical RSA fracture studies.Lucian B Solomon, Aaron W Stevenson, Stuart A Callary, Thomas R Sullivan, Donald W Howie, and Mellick J Chehad

Alteration of the serine protease PRSS56 causes angle-closure glaucoma in mice and posterior microphthalmia in humans and mice.

Angle-closure glaucoma (ACG) is a subset of glaucoma affecting 16 million people. Although 4 million people are bilaterally blind from ACG, the causative molecular mechanisms of ACG remain to be defined. High intraocular pressure induces glaucoma in ACG. High intraocular pressure traditionally was suggested to result from the iris blocking or closing the angle of the eye, thereby limiting aqueous humor drainage. Eyes from individuals with ACG often have a modestly decreased axial length, shallow anterior chamber and relatively large lens, features that predispose to angle closure. Here we show that genetic alteration of a previously unidentified serine protease (PRSS56) alters axial length and causes a mouse phenotype resembling ACG. Mutations affecting this protease also cause a severe decrease of axial length in individuals with posterior microphthalmia. Together, these data suggest that alterations of this serine protease may contribute to a spectrum of human ocular conditions including reduced ocular size and ACG