Volcanic plumes from explosive basaltic eruptions: the case of Mount Etna (Italy)

Explosive basaltic eruptions at Mount Etna, Italy, distinguished by a lava fountain surrounded by a tephra plume, have occurred frequently in recent decades. The associated injection of tephra into the atmosphere creates a hazard to local and regional communities. Despite this, the plume dynamics are poorly-understood. To improve the understanding of this phenomena, I investigate coupled tephra plumes – lava fountains through three approaches. First, I develop a new integral model that explicitly considers the denser, coarse inner lava fountain and its effect on the surrounding tephra plume. Depending on the grain-size distribution and partitioning of initial mass flow rate (MFR) into the lava fountain, a coupled tephra plume can go higher or lower than a standard tephra plume for a given initial MFR. Secondly, I examine the relationship between plume dynamics and eruption deposits. While neither the initial MFR from a standard or the newly-developed integral model correlate to the deposit-derived MFR, the modelled MFR at the point above the lava fountain in the newly-developed model does, suggesting that these plumes have significant fallout that is not captured in typical deposit measurements. Specifically, the cone-deposit itself must be considered to account for the discrepancy between the deposit-derived and modelled initial MFRs. Finally, these results are supported by visible-wavelength video analysis of these eruptions. Qualitative analysis shows that lava fountains and tephra plumes are not fully-coupled, that lava fountains occur in the centre of tephra plumes and that surrounding material (volcanic gas and loose particles) are entrained into the plumes. Rotation of the plumes in some eruptions is also examined, although I show that its effect on plume dynamics is insignificant. Determined wind and radial entrainment coefficients are also comparable to those of standard tephra plumes. Together, these findings highlight that lava fountains significantly affect the rise of coupled tephra plumes

Sensitivity of Volcanic Ash Dispersion Modelling to Input Grain Size Distribution Based on Hydromagmatic and Magmatic Deposits

The size distribution of volcanic ash is rarely measured in real time and Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) often rely on a default particle size distribution (PSD) to initialise their dispersion models when forecasting the movement of ash clouds. We conducted a sensitivity study to investigate the impact of PSD on model output and consider how best to apply default PSDs in operational dispersion modelling. Compiled grain size data confirm that, when considering particles likely to be in the distal ash cloud (< 125 µm diameter), magma composition and eruption size are the dominant controls on grain size distribution. Constraining the PSD is challenging but we find that the grain size of deposits from large hydromagmatic eruptions remains relatively constant with distance, suggesting that total (whole-deposit) grain size distributions (TGSDs) for these eruptions could be estimated from a few samples. We investigated the sensitivity of modelled ash mass loadings (in the air and on the ground) to input PSDs based on coarse to fine TGSDs from our dataset. We found clear differences between modelled mass loadings and the extent of the plume. Comparing TGSDs based on ground-only and ground-plus-satellite data for the Eyjafjallajökull 2010 eruption, we found that basing input PSDs on TGSDs from deposits alone (likely missing the finest particles) led to lower modelled peak ash concentrations and a smaller plume

Evaluating the state-of-the-art in remote volcanic eruption characterization Part II: Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea

Retrospective eruption characterization is valuable for advancing our understanding of volcanic systems and evaluating our observational capabilities, especially with remote technologies (defined here as a space-borne system or non-local, ground-based instrumentation which include regional and remote infrasound sensors). In June 2019, the open-system Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea, produced a VEI 4 eruption. We combined data from satellites (including Sentinel-2, TROPOMI, MODIS, Himawari-8), the International Monitoring System infrasound network, and GLD360 globally detected lightning with information from the local authorities and social media to characterize the pre-, syn- and post-eruptive behaviour. The Rabaul Volcano Observatory recorded ~24 h of seismicity and detected SO2 emissions ~16 h before the visually-documented start of the Plinian phase on 26 June at 04:20 UTC. Infrasound and SO2 detections suggest the eruption started during the night on 24 June 2019 at 10:39 UTC ~38 h before ash detections with a gas-dominated jetting phase. Local reports and infrasound detections show that the second phase of the eruption started on 25 June 19:28 UTC with ~6 h of jetting. The first detected lightning occurred on 26 June 00:14 UTC, and ash emissions were first detected by Himawari-8 at 01:00 UTC. Post-eruptive satellite imagery indicates new flow deposits to the south and north of the edifice and ash fall to the west and southwest. In particular, regional infrasound data provided novel insight into eruption onset and syn-eruptive changes in intensity. We conclude that, while remote observations are sufficient for detection and tracking of syn-eruptive changes, key challenges in data latency, acquisition, and synthesis must be addressed to improve future near-real-time characterization of eruptions at minimally-monitored or unmonitored volcanoes

Evaluating the state-of-the-art in remote volcanic eruption characterization Part I: Raikoke volcano, Kuril Islands

Raikoke, a small, unmonitored volcano in the Kuril Islands, erupted in June 2019. We integrate data from satellites (including Sentinel-2, TROPOMI, MODIS, Himawari-8), the International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasound network, and global lightning detection network (GLD360) with information from local authorities and social media to retrospectively characterize the eruptive sequence and improve understanding of the pre-, syn- and post- eruptive behavior. We observe six infrasound pulses beginning on 21 June at 17:49:55 UTC as well as the main Plinian phase on 21 June at 22:29 UTC. Each pulse is tracked in space and time using lightning and satellite imagery as the plumes drift eastward. Post-eruption visible satellite imagery shows expansion of the island\u27s surface area, an increase in crater size, and a possibly-linked algal bloom south of the island. We use thermal satellite imagery and plume modeling to estimate plume height at 10–12 km asl and 1.5–2 × 106 kg/s mass eruption rate. Remote infrasound data provide insight into syn-eruptive changes in eruption intensity. Our analysis illustrates the value of interdisciplinary analyses of remote data to illuminate eruptive processes. However, our inability to identify deformation, pre-eruptive outgassing, and thermal signals, which may reflect the relatively short duration (~12 h) of the eruption and minimal land area around the volcano and/or the character of closed-system eruptions, highlights current limitations in the application of remote sensing for eruption detection and characterization