An Econometric Model of the Soviet Iron and Steel Industry

The purpose of this paper is to cover the development of the iron and steel industry in the USSR for the years 1960-1983 in order to find out whether its pattern is unique or rather common to any developed country. The study of this energy-intensive industry furthermore contributes to the identification of the causes of slower growth in energy consumption

Model of Interindustry Interactions as a System of Simultaneous Equations

This paper considers the techniques used to estimate the parameters of the large-scale model of interindustry interactions. Use of the ordinary least squares technique sometimes leads to overestimation of model validity. These questions are of great importance in forecasting if the set of parameters is obtained by econometric techniques. Three examples illustrate the problem and show that the model should be represented as a system of simultaneous equations and therefore appropriate techniques have to be used for parameter estimation

Breaking the Energy Coefficient: Cross-Country Analysis for the Iron and Steel Industry

In this paper one of the most long-standing industries and the impact of its technological changes on energy consumption are considered. Econometric analysis of cross-country and time-series data helps to reveal the impact which is widely discussed in detailed engineering reports

Breaking the Energy Coefficient: Cross-Country Analysis of the Pulp and Paper Industry

Our research concentrates primarily on the empirical analysis of interregional and intertemporal economic structural change, on the sources of and constraints on economic growth, on problems of adaptation to sudden changes, and especially on problems arising from changing patterns of international trade, resource availability, and technology. In this paper one of the long-standing industries and the impact of its technological changes on energy consumption are considered. Econometric analysis of cross-country and time-series data helps to reveal the impact which is widely discussed in detailed engineering reports

Breaking the Energy Coefficient: Cross-Country Analysis for the Chemical Industry

In this paper one of the long-standing industries and the impact of its technological changes on energy consumption are considered. Econometric analysis of cross-country and time-series data helps to reveal the impact which is widely discussed in detailed engineering reports

A Model of Interindustry Interaction in the USSR

A quantitative analysis of the development of interindustry flows in the Soviet economy showed that traditional input-output methods needed to be expanded and generalized for use in Soviet medium-term (5-7 year) planning. In particular, it is necessary to account for supply constraints on some products and relative surpluses of others. This paper describes a model which accounts for these influences, fits closely the development of the Soviet economy from 1950 to 1975, and can be and has been used in the exploratory stages of Soviet planning

Proceedings of the Fourth IIASA Task Force Meeting on Input-Output Modeling

The Fourth IIASA Task Force Meeting on Input-Output Modeling set out to examine how fully I/O modeling captures the substance of policy issues such as energy conversion problems, changes in consumer behavior patterns, and aspects of foreign trade under new and evolving world market conditions. The 28 papers presented are arranged here in three sections. In the first section, ten papers review the results and lessons of modeling work aimed at understanding structural change in the economies of the United States, the GDR, Nigeria, Japan, Hungary, the Soviet Union, Austria, the FRG, and Italy. The papers in the second section are tied together by their focus on issues related to international trade. The first three comment on the structure of trade for Hungary, Austria, and Italy; the next four are interrelated contributions from the NordHand group of modelers (in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden); the final paper in the section discusses a model of interdependent structural change within the European Communities. In the third section of the book are ten papers dealing with the empirical analysis of structural change through the examination of interindustry interactions and energy analysis. Four papers open the section by analyzing the changing intermediate coefficients in studies of Poland, Finland, Austria, and Hungary. These are followed by four contributions that explore and extend traditional techniques in studies of the economies of Denmark, the European Community, and Austria as well as a long-term application to project the profitability of ethanol production; the volume ends with papers that discuss factors connected with changes in the structure of industrial production in Italy and Czechoslovakia

Proceedings of Task Force Meeting in Input-Output Modeling (1981)

Work on input-output modeling at IIASA began in 1979 with Clopper Almon and Douglas Nyhus, and the third year of research in this area has now been completed. During this period there has been considerable progress in the construction, linking, and use of input-output models; the programs for the basic IIASA models have been modified so that they can be used on a number of different computer systems and a user's guide to the basic program SLIMFORP has been published by U. Sichra as IIASA Working Paper WP-81-114. With substantial help from IIASA and the Inter-Industry Forecasting project (INFORUM) at the University of Maryland, a self-organizing network of collaborating institutions has been built up to work on the development and linkage of input-output models. IIASA is particularly suitable for this type of coordination role because of its many contacts in all parts of the world. A Task Force meeting is held each year to draw together the results obtained by the collaborating groups and to discuss future research. The second of these meetings was held in September 1981 and was attended by 38 participants, representing 20 different institutions from 16 countries. This volume contains the papers presented at the meeting, and is divided into sectors dealing with the specific topics discussed in each session The first section deals with results and problems connected with the national models and contains contributions from D. Vanwynsberghe (Belgium); A. Dimitrov (Bulgaria); R. Courbis (France); G. Fink and A. Simon (Hungary); D. Bell (U.K.); and D. Nyhus (U.S.A.). The second session was devoted to work on modeling of personal consumption expenditure, and both criticism and extensions of the Almon model (which allows a good to be a complement to or a substitute for another good) were presented. Family budget and expenditure data were used to demonstrate methods which estimate income elasticities and which incorporate demographic effects. Contributions from P. Devine (U.S.A.); L. Grassini and M. Grassini (Italy); and G. Kornai (Hungary) are included in this section. In the third section the participants discussed the problems connected with investment functions and estimation. Papers by C. Ciaschini (Italy); O. Forssell (Finland); and A. Smyshlyaev (U.S.S.R.) deal with the development of improved estimation techniques. The fourth section contains papers on more general topics: A. Cavalieri (Italy) and A. Lotov (U.S.S.R.) discuss linkage in input-output models, and U. Ludwig (G.D.R.) considers the relationship between final demand and resources

Input-Output Modeling; Proceedings of the Fifth IIASA Task Force Meeting, October 4-6, 1984

Input-output modeling, has, through the years, provided a consistent and unifying focus for IIASA's economic research. Scientists working at the Institute have cooperated extensively with colleagues throughout the world in advancing and contributing to input-output work. Perhaps the most notable aspect of these efforts has been the joint work with the INFORUM Project to develop linked systems of national models. Experience gained with the INFORUM-IIASA studies has been of great benefit to other members of the I/O community. Contributors not connected with INFORUM have also brought their own very valuable insights and knowledge to bear on the subject, and input-output modeling has moved progressively away from being a purely academic specialization. A number of the methods developed have direct application to economic analysis and policy formulation, and I/O techniques have achieved widespread use in both governmental and commercial environments. This volume presents the results of the fifth of a series of meetings organized by IIASA to promote methodological advances in the subject and to draw on a pool of I/O expertise so as to further the aims of the Institute's in-house economic research

Input-Output Modeling: Proceedings of the Third IIASA Task Force Meeting

The papers in this volume fall into two groups: the first deals with the linkage of input-output models and describes several models that are now ready to be linked, while the second concentrates on the analysis of structural change as well as reporting recent developments in the INFORUM group of models. Some of the papers in the first group examine the linkage of seven national models using the INFORUM international trade model, the development of a linked system for modeling the small open economies of the Nordic countries, and the definition of an appropriate international scenario for a single national model. Others discuss problems of disaggregation, the relationship between regional and national models, and the role of input-output models as policy-making tools. The section closes with papers on national models for Poland and Finland and a report describing the price-income block of the advanced US INFORUM model. The second group opens with analyses of factor inputs and of energy-economy interactions. It continues with suggestions on how to develop consistent dynamic input-output models using poor data bases and describes how an input-output model can be used to derive aggregate characteristics of probable future structural change. Further papers are devoted to changes in technical coefficients, the development of effective national models using limited or inconsistent data bases, and estimation techniques. The volume closes with a "system for systems design" for use in input-output related work