Do coefficients of variation of response propensities approximate non‐response biases during survey data collection?

We evaluate the utility of coefficients of variation of response propensities (CVs) as measures of risks of survey variable non‐response biases when monitoring survey data collection. CVs quantify variation in sample response propensities estimated given a set of auxiliary attribute covariates observed for all subjects. If auxiliary covariates and survey variables are correlated, low levels of propensity variation imply low bias risk. CVs can also be decomposed to measure associations between auxiliary covariates and propensity variation, informing collection method modifications and post‐collection adjustments to improve dataset quality. Practitioners are interested in such approaches to managing bias risks, but risk indicator performance has received little attention. We describe relationships between CVs and expected biases and how they inform quality improvements during and post‐data collection, expanding on previous work. Next, given auxiliary information from the concurrent 2011 UK census and details of interview attempts, we use CVs to quantify the representativeness of the UK Labour Force Survey dataset during data collection. Following this, we use survey data to evaluate inference based on CVs concerning survey variables with analogues measuring the same quantities among the auxiliary covariate set. Given our findings, we then offer advice on using CVs to monitor survey data collection

Data set representativeness during data collection in three UK social surveys: generalizability and the effects of auxiliary covariate choice

We consider the use of representativeness indicators to monitor risks of non‐response bias during survey data collection. The analysis benefits from use of a unique data set linking call record paradata from three UK social surveys to census auxiliary attribute information on sample households. We investigate the utility of census information for this purpose and the performance of representativeness indicators (the R‐indicator and the coefficient of variation of response propensities) in monitoring representativeness over call records. We also investigate the extent and effects of misspecification of auxiliary covariate sets used in indicator computation and design phase capacity points in call records beyond which survey data set improvements are minimal, and whether such points are generalizable across surveys. Given our findings, we then offer guidance to survey practitioners on the use of such methods and implications for optimizing data collection and efficiency savings

Properties of the bridge sampler with a focus on splitting the MCMC sample

Computation of normalizing constants is a fundamental mathematical problem in various disciplines, particularly in Bayesian model selection problems. A sampling-based technique known as bridge sampling (Meng and Wong in Stat Sin 6(4):831–860, 1996) has been found to produce accurate estimates of normalizing constants and is shown to possess good asymptotic properties. For small to moderate sample sizes (as in situations with limited computational resources), we demonstrate that the (optimal) bridge sampler produces biased estimates. Specifically, when one density (we denote as p2) is constructed to be close to the target density (we denote as p1) using method of moments, our simulation-based results indicate that the correlation-induced bias through the moment-matching procedure is non-negligible. More crucially, the bias amplifies as the dimensionality of the problem increases. Thus, a series of theoretical as well as empirical investigations is carried out to identify the nature and origin of the bias. We then examine the effect of sample size allocation on the accuracy of bridge sampling estimates and discovered that one possibility of reducing both the bias and standard error with a small increase in computational effort is by drawing extra samples from the moment-matched density p2 (which we assume easy to sample from), provided that the evaluation of p1 is not too expensive. We proceed to show how the simple adaptive approach we termed “splitting” manages to alleviate the correlation-induced bias at the expense of a higher standard error, irrespective of the dimensionality involved. We also slightly modified the strategy suggested by Wang et al. (Warp bridge sampling: the next generation, Preprint, 2019. arXiv:1609.07690) to address the issue of the increase in standard error due to splitting, which is later generalized to further improve the efficiency. We conclude the paper by offering our insights of the application of a combination of these adaptive methods to improve the accuracy of bridge sampling estimates in Bayesian applications (where posterior samples are typically expensive to generate) based on the preceding investigations, with an application to a practical example

Scenario planning for the Edinburgh city region

This paper examines the application of scenario planning techniques to the detailed and daunting challenge of city re-positioning when policy makers are faced with a heavy history and a complex future context. It reviews a process of scenario planning undertaken in the Edinburgh city region, exploring the scenario process and its contribution to strategies and policies for city repositioning. Strongly rooted in the recent literature on urban and regional economic development, the text outlines how key individuals and organisations involved in the process participated in far-reaching analyses of the possible future worlds in which the Edinburgh city region might find itself

Low back pain beliefs are associated to age, location of work, education and pain-related disability in Chinese healthcare, professionals working in China: a cross sectinal survey

Background: Low back pain (LBP) is the leading cause of disability worldwide. Evidence pointing towards a more efficacious model of care using a biopsychosocial approach for LBP management highlights the need to understand the pain-related beliefs of patients and those who treat them. The beliefs held by healthcare professionals (HCPs) are known to influence the treatment advice given to patients and consequently management outcomes. Back pain beliefs are known to be influenced by factors such as culture, education, health literacy, place of work, personal experience of LBP and the sequelae of LBP such as disability. There is currently a knowledge gap among these relationships in non-western countries. The aim of this study was to examine the associations between LBP-related beliefs among Chinese HCPs and characteristics of these HCPs. Methods: A convenience sample of 432 HCPs working in various health settings in Shanghai, China, completed a series of questionnaires assessing their demographic characteristics, LBP status, pain-related disability and their beliefs about their own LBP experience, using the Back beliefs Questionnaire (BBQ) and the Fear Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire (FABQ).Results: Younger Chinese HCPs (20–29 years) held more negative beliefs and attitudes related to LBP compared to older HCPs (>40years; BBQ mean difference [95% CI]: 2.4 [0.9 - 3.9], p = 0.001). HCPs working outside tertiary hospitals had poorer beliefs concerning the inevitable consequences of LBP (BBQ mean difference [95% CI]: -2.4 [-3.8 - -1.0], p = 0.001). HCPs who experienced LBP had higher level of fear avoidance beliefs when experiencing high LBP-related disability (FABQ-physical mean difference [95% CI]: 2.8 [1.5 - 4.1], p < 0.001; FABQ-work mean difference [95% CI]: 6.2 [4.0 - 8.4], p < 0.001)) and had lower level of fear avoidance beliefs if they had completed postgraduate study(FABQ-physical mean difference [95% CI]: 2.9 [-5.8 - 0.0], p = 0.049).Conclusion: This study suggests that LBP-related beliefs and attitudes among Chinese HCPs are influenced by age, location of work, level of LBP-related disability and education level. Understanding back pain beliefs of Chinese HCPs forms an important foundation for future studies into the condition and its management in China

Molecular Genetic Analysis of 103 Sporadic Colorectal Tumours in Czech Patients

The Czech Republic has one of the highest incidences of colorectal cancer (CRC) in Europe. To evaluate whether sporadic CRCs in Czech patients have specific mutational profiles we analysed somatic genetic changes in known CRC genes (APC, KRAS, TP53, CTNNB1, MUTYH and BRAF, loss of heterozygosity (LOH) at the APC locus, microsatellite instability (MSI), and methylation of the MLH1 promoter) in 103 tumours from 102 individuals. The most frequently mutated gene was APC (68.9% of tumours), followed by KRAS (31.1%), TP53 (27.2%), BRAF (8.7%) and CTNNB1 (1.9%). Heterozygous germline MUTYH mutations in 2 patients were unlikely to contribute to the development of their CRCs. LOH at the APC locus was found in 34.3% of tumours, MSI in 24.3% and MLH1 methylation in 12.7%. Seven tumours (6.9%) were without any changes in the genes tested. The analysis yielded several findings possibly specific for the Czech cohort. Somatic APC mutations did not cluster in the mutation cluster region (MCR). Tumours with MSI but no MLH1 methylation showed earlier onset and more severe mutational profiles compared to MSI tumours with MLH1 methylation. TP53 mutations were predominantly located outside the hot spots, and transitions were underrepresented. Our analysis supports the observation that germline MUTYH mutations are rare in Czech individuals with sporadic CRCs. Our findings suggest the influence of specific ethnic genetic factors and/or lifestyle and dietary habits typical for the Czech population on the development of these cancers

Resveratrol Acts Not through Anti-Aggregative Pathways but Mainly via Its Scavenging Properties against Aβ and Aβ-Metal Complexes Toxicity

It has been recently suggested that resveratrol can be effective in slowing down Alzheimer's disease (AD) development. As reported in many biochemical studies, resveratrol seems to exert its neuro-protective role through inhibition of β-amyloid aggregation (Aβ), by scavenging oxidants and exerting anti-inflammatory activities. In this paper, we demonstrate that resveratrol is cytoprotective in human neuroblastoma cells exposed to Aβ and or to Aβ-metal complex. Our findings suggest that resveratrol acts not through anti-aggregative pathways but mainly via its scavenging properties

Species Delimitation in Taxonomically Difficult Fungi: The Case of Hymenogaster

False truffles are ecologically important as mycorrhizal partners of trees and evolutionarily highly interesting as the result of a shift from epigeous mushroom-like to underground fruiting bodies. Since its first description by Vittadini in 1831, inappropriate species concepts in the highly diverse false truffle genus Hymenogaster has led to continued confusion, caused by a large variety of prevailing taxonomical opinions.In this study, we reconsidered the species delimitations in Hymenogaster based on a comprehensive collection of Central European taxa comprising more than 140 fruiting bodies from 20 years of field work. The ITS rDNA sequence dataset was subjected to phylogenetic analysis as well as clustering optimization using OPTSIL software.Among distinct species concepts from the literature used to create reference partitions for clustering optimization, the broadest concept resulted in the highest agreement with the ITS data. Our results indicate a highly variable morphology of H. citrinus and H. griseus, most likely linked to environmental influences on the phenology (maturity, habitat, soil type and growing season). In particular, taxa described in the 19(th) century frequently appear as conspecific. Conversely, H. niveus appears as species complex comprising seven cryptic species with almost identical macro- and micromorphology. H. intermedius and H. huthii are described as novel species, each of which with a distinct morphology intermediate between two species complexes. A revised taxonomy for one of the most taxonomically difficult genera of Basidiomycetes is proposed, including an updated identification key. The (semi-)automated selection among species concepts used here is of importance for the revision of taxonomically problematic organism groups in general