Greenhouse Gas Mitigation on Diversified Farms

Agriculture can potentially contribute to Canada meeting its commitment to reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under the Kyoto protocol. A representative crop - livestock feeding farm on the Canadian prairies is used to estimate the cost of net GHG abatement, taking into account CO2 equivalent emissions and carbon sequestration. Optimal cropping systems use direct seeding and continuous cropping, production systems that have lower net GHG emissions. Livestock feeding uses rations with high energy concentration (grain based) because they are more profitable and also produce less methane per animal than forage based diets. Reducing tillage is the least costly means of lowering net emissions ($20/t CO2 eq.), followed by reducing cattle feeding ($32/t CO2 eq.). If emission reductions are high or cattle numbers can not be reduced, cropping is altered to use very little nitrogen fertilizer ($272-567/t CO2 eq.), and cattle feeding is switched to a higher forage diet (up to$1500/t CO2 eq.). The high forage diet has lower emissions per capacity animal, but only because one-half the number of animals can be finished with the same facility capacity. A regional analyses of aggregate emissions will need to incorporate the heterogeneity of farms and soil carbon levels that exist.Environmental Economics and Policy,

An Investment Analysis Approach to Examining Bio-Control of Invasive Weeds

Invasive weeds are a large problem on large tracts of rangeland in North America. Biological methods of control have been instituted, but many information gaps remain. An investment model approach is used to demonstrate some of the potentially key pieces of biological data that are required for an analysis. This model is applied to the control of leafy spurge on rangeland. The results of control are very dependent on the rate of spread and control by the biological control agent, the initial density of the weed, and the recovery of the forage (grass) after the weed has been controlled. Benefits of control are relatively low, as is the cost of the biological control practice. It takes several years before net benefits of the control practice are positive.Land Economics/Use,

Modeling Crop Yield Distributions from Small Samples

Accurately modeling crop yield distributions is important for estimation of crop insurance premiums and farm risk-management decisions. A major challenge in the modeling has been due to small sample size. This study evaluated potentials of L-moments, a recent concept in mathematical statistics, in modeling crop yield distribution. Five candidate distributions were ranked for describing the wheat yields. The selected distribution was robust for small sample and was invariant to de-trending. The result was consistent with that from the maximum likelihood and goodness-of-fit method.Crop Production/Industries,

The Sweet Smell of Subsidies Revisited

Agricultural and Food Policy,

Factors Influencing Wheat Yield and Variability: Evidence from Manitoba, Canada

Production functions to explain regional wheat yields have not been studied extensively in the Canadian prairies. The objective of this study is to employ a Just-Pope production function to examine the relationship between fertilizer inputs, soil quality, biodiversity indicators, cultivars qualifying for Plant Breeders’ Rights (PBR), and climatic conditions on the mean and variance of spring wheat yields. Using regional-level wheat data from Manitoba, Canada, model results show nitrogen fertilizer, temporal diversity, and PBR wheat cultivars are associated with increased yield variance. Mean wheat yield is reduced by the proportion of land in wheat, the interaction of growing temperature and precipitation, and spatial diversity. By contrast, higher soil quality and PBR wheat cultivars increase mean yield. The wheat yield increases attributed to PBR range from 37.2 (1.4%) to 54.5 kg/ha (2.0%). Plant Breeders’ Rights may have enhanced royalties from increased certified seed sales, but the benefits in terms of higher wheat yield or lower yield variability are limited. Future research is required to understand the interactive effects of fertilization practices, genetic diversity, and environmental conditions on regional wheat yield stability.climate, fertilizer, Manitoba, Plant Breeders’ Rights, production risk, wheat, yield, Agribusiness, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, Productivity Analysis, Risk and Uncertainty, O18, Q16,

OPTIMUM SOIL QUALITY ATTRIBUTE LEVELS AND VALUES

We develop a dynamic optimal cropping systems model for the northern Great Plains, taking into account the impact of the system on soil quality attributes organic and inorganic carbon. Continuous wheat and direct planting is the most profitable system under most economic conditions. This system has low soil erosion and results in high soil quality.Land Economics/Use,

Prairie Crop Diversification

The Canadian prairies traditionally have been dominated by spring wheat production. Crop diversification is now being advocated to enhance farm-level risk management, ecological benefits, nutrient cycling, and pest and disease control, and to reduce the farm economy’s reliance on income from a single crop. There has always been interest in diversifying away from wheat, but until recently, economically feasible alternatives have been limited, and government policies may have constrained the shift to other crops. Knowing the impact of prices and policies on crop diversification is essential to understanding producer response and to determining strategies to enhance cropping diversity.Marketing,

An Innovative Approach for Modeling Crop Yield Response to Fertilizer Nutrients

Fertilizer recommendations seldom account for agro-climatic conditions, which are important factors that determine the response to fertilizer and the optimal rate of fertilizer. The nitrogen fertilizer response to open pollinated and hybrid canola types will also impact optimal nitrogen rates. This study used quantile regression to model canola yield response to nitrogen fertilizer. Quantile regression can apply different weights to the residuals, facilitating a response estimation where the agro-climatic conditions are not limiting and the yield response is due to the variable of interest. The economically optimal levels of fertilizers were calculated using the proposed and the conventional least squares procedures of the two canola types in western Canada. Results showed that the effects of nitrogen fertilizer on yield depended on the canola type and on the estimation procedure. Optimal levels of nitrogen for open-pollinated canola were estimated as 91, 115, and 134 kg ha-1 for severe, moderate and low levels of agro-climatic constraints. Hybrid had a higher yield potential, and also required more nitrogen fertilizer (137, 142, and 158 kg ha-1). Unlike conventional approach, proposed approach could benefit producer by recommending less (more) fertilizer when the crop response to fertilizer is expected to be low (high) due to agro-climatic conditions.Crop Production/Industries,

RISK EFFICIENCY OF ALTERNATE CANOLA MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

This study evaluates profitability and risk associated with eighteen different management decisions for canola production in Alberta. Expected payoff from cultivar selection outweighs the payoff from time of seeding and from time of weed control. Expected payoff was higher from hybrid compared to inbred cultivars. Early spring seeding was more profitable than fall or mid-May seeding. A typical decision in the sample showed positive and significant upper limit risk-expected return tradeoffs. The generalized stochastic dominance analysis revealed that early spring seeding was dominant over fall and mid-May seeding across all risk averse and risk neutral farmers. Weed control at the six-leaf stage was risk efficient for a risk averter. A risk neutral farmer preferred weed control at the three to four-leaf stage or six-leaf stage, depending on cultivar.Risk and Uncertainty,

SOIL QUALITY ATTRIBUTE TIME PATHS: OPTIMAL LEVELS AND VALUES

We develop a dynamic soil quality model to evaluate optimal cropping systems in the northern Great Plains. Modeling soil quality attributes is feasible, and attribute model results apply to a wide range of soils. A crop production system with continuous spring wheat and direct planting is the most profitable system. This system has low soil erosion and high quality attributes, indicating the benefits of increased soil quality exceed the higher maintenance costs. On-site value of additional soil organic carbon (OC) ranges from $1 to$4/ton OC/hectare/year. These values for soil OC impact the optimum tillage practice, but not the crop rotation.Crop Production/Industries,