Estimating the risk of HIV transmission from homosexual men receiving treatment to their HIV-uninfected partners

Objective To determine how the risk of HIV transmission from homosexual men receiving antiretroviral treatment is related to patterns of patient monitoring and condom use. Methods A stochastic mathematical simulation model was developed of cohorts of men in the Netherlands who have sex with men (MSM), defining the parameters of the model using observational cohort data. The model incorporates viral load trends during first-line treatment, patient monitoring and different scenarios for the way in which condom use may depend on recent viral load measurements. The model does not include the effect of sexually transmitted infections on HIV transmission. Results For MSM receiving treatment, the risk of transmitting HIV to their long-term partner is 22% (uncertainty interval: 9-37%) if condoms are never used. With incomplete use (in 30% of sex acts) the risk is reduced slightly, to 17% (7-29%). However, the risk is as low as 3% (0.2-8%) when men receiving treatment use condoms only 6 months beyond their last undetectable viral load measurement. The risk is further reduced when 3 months is the time period beyond which condoms are used. Conclusions When condom use by HIV-infected men receiving combination treatment with antiretroviral agents is based on their last viral load measurement, the transmission risk is much lower than with incomplete condom use. The key message for patients is that although always using condoms during treatment is the best way to protect partners from the risk of HIV transmission, when such use cannot be achieved, the second best strategy is to use condoms whenever the last undetectable viral load was measured more than 3 months ag

Late Entry to HIV Care Limits the Impact of Anti-Retroviral Therapy in the Netherlands

To explain differences in survival in the first three years of combination anti-retroviral therapy (cART) between HIV treatment centres in The Netherlands.We developed a mathematical simulation model, parameterised using data from the ATHENA cohort that describes patients entering care, being monitored and starting cART. Three scenarios were used to represent three treatment centres with widely varying mortality rates on cART that were differentiated by: (i) the distribution of CD4 counts of patients entering care; (ii) the age distribution of patients entering care; (iii) the average rate of monitoring the patients not on cART. At the level of the treatment centre, the fraction of Dutch MSM dying in the first three years of treatment ranged from 0% to 8%. The mathematical model captured the large variation in observed mortality between the three treatment centres. Manipulating the age-distribution of patients or the frequency of monitoring did not affect the model predictions. In contrast, when the same national average distribution of CD4 count at entry was used in all the scenarios, the variation in predicted mortality between all centres was diminished.Patients entering care with low CD4 counts appears to be the main source of variation in the mortality rates between Dutch treatment centres. Recruiting HIV-infected individuals to care earlier could lead to substantial improvements in cART outcomes. For example, if patients were to present with at least 400 CD4 cells/mm(3), as they do already in some centres, then our model predicts that the mortality in the first three years of cART could be reduced by approximately 20%

Developing quality indicators for the care of HIV-infected pregnant women in the Dutch Caribbean

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Effective interventions to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) exist and when properly applied reduce the risk of vertical HIV transmission. As part of optimizing PMTCT in the Dutch Caribbean we developed a set of valid and applicable indicators in order to assess the quality of care in HIV-infected (pregnant) women and their newborns.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A multidisciplinary expert panel of 19 experts reviewed and prioritized recommendations extracted from locally used international PMTCT guidelines according to a 3-step-modified-Delphi procedure. Subsequently, the feasibility, sample size, inter-observer reliability, sensitivity to change and case mixed stability of the potential indicators were tested for a data set of 153 HIV-infected women, 108 pregnancies of HIV-infected women and 79 newborns of HIV-infected women in Aruba, Curaçao and St Maarten from 2000 to 2010.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The panel selected and prioritized 13 potential indicators. Applicability could not be tested for 4 indicators regarding HIV-screening in pregnant women because of lack of data. Four indicators performed satisfactorily for Curaçao ('monitoring CD4-cell count', 'monitoring HIV-RNA levels', 'intrapartum antiretroviral therapy and infant prophylaxis if antepartum antiretroviral therapy was not received', 'scheduled caesarean delivery') and 3 for St Maarten ('monitoring CD4-cell count', 'monitoring HIV-RNA levels', 'discuss and provide combined antiretroviral therapy to all HIV-infected pregnant women') whilst none for Aruba.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A systemic evidence-and consensus-based approach was used to develop quality indicators in 3 Dutch Caribbean settings. The varying results of the applicability testing accentuate the necessity of applicability testing even in, at first, comparable settings.</p

Antenatal screening for HIV, hepatitis B and syphilis in the Netherlands is effective

Abstract Background A screening programme for pregnant women has been in place since the 1950s in the Netherlands. In 2004 universal HIV screening according to opting out was implemented. Here, we describe the evaluation of the effectiveness of antenatal screening in the Netherlands for 2006-2008 for HIV, hepatitis B virus (HBV) and syphilis in preventing mother-to-child transmission, by using various data sources. Methods The results of antenatal screening (2006-2008) were compared with data from pregnant women and newborns from other data sources. Results Each year, around 185,000 pregnant women were screened for HIV, HBV and syphilis. Refusal rates for the screening tests were low, and were highest (0.2%) for HIV. The estimated annual prevalence of HIV among pregnant women was 0.05%. Prior to the introduction of screening, 5-10 children were born with HIV annually After the introduction of screening in 2004, only 4 children were born with HIV (an average of 1 per year). Two of these mothers had become pregnant prior to 2004; the third mother was HIV negative at screening and probably became infected after screening; the fourth mother's background was unknown. Congenital syphilis was diagnosed in fewer than 5 newborns annually and 5 children were infected with HBV. In 3 of these, the mothers were HBeAg positive (a marker for high infectivity). We estimated that 5-10 HIV, 50-75 HBV and 10 syphilis cases in newborns had been prevented annually as a result of screening. Conclusions The screening programme was effective in detecting HIV, HBV and syphilis in pregnant women and in preventing transmission to the child. Since the introduction of the HIV screening the number of children born with HIV has fallen dramatically. Previous publication [Translation from: 'Prenatale screening op hiv, hepatitis B en syphilis in Nederland effectief', published in 'The Dutch Journal of Medicine ' (NTVG, in Dutch)]</p

Risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism in patients with HIV infection:A nationwide cohort study

Background Multiple studies have described a higher incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in people living with an HIV infection (PWH). However, data on the risk of recurrent VTE in this population are lacking, although this question is more important for clinical practice. This study aims to estimate the risk of recurrent VTE in PWH compared to controls and to identify risk factors for recurrence within this population. Methods and findings PWH with a first VTE were derived from the AIDS Therapy Evaluation in the Netherlands (ATHENA) cohort (2003-2015), a nationwide ongoing cohort following up PWH in care in the Netherlands. Uninfected controls were derived from the Multiple Environmental and Genetic Assessment of risk factors for venous thrombosis (MEGA) follow-up study (19992003), a cohort of patients with a first VTE who initially participated in a case-control study in the Netherlands who were followed up for recurrent VTE. Selection was limited to persons with an index VTE suffering from deep vein thrombosis in the lower limbs and/or pulmonary embolism (PE). Participants were followed from withdrawal of anticoagulation to VTE recurrence, loss to follow-up, death, or end of study. We estimated incidence rates, cumulative incidence (accounting for competing risk of death) and hazard ratios (HRs) using Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusting for age, sex, and whether the index event was provoked or unprovoked. When analyzing risk factors among PWH, the main focus of analysis was the role of immune markers (cluster of differentiation 4 [CD4]+ T-cell count). There were 153 PWH (82% men, median 48 years) and 4,005 uninfected controls (45% men, median 49 years) with a first VTE (71% unprovoked in PWH, 34% unprovoked in controls) available for analysis. With 40 VTE recurrences during 774 person-years of follow-up (PYFU) in PWH and 635 VTE recurrences during 20,215 PYFU in controls, the incidence rates were 5.2 and 3.1 per 100 PYFU (HR: 1.70, 95% CI 1.23-2.36, p = 0.003). VTE consistently recurred more frequently per 100 PYFU in PWH in all predefined subgroups of men (5.6 versus 4.8), women (3.6 versus 1.9), and unprovoked (6.0 versus 5.2) or provoked (3.1 versus 2.1) first VTE. After adjustment, the VTE recurrence risk was higher in PWH compared to controls in the first year after anticoagulant discontinuation (HR: 1.67, 95% CI 1.04-2.70, p = 0.03) with higher cumulative incidences in PWH at 1 year (12.5% versus 5.6%) and 5 years (23.4% versus 15.3%) of follow-up. VTE recurred less frequently in PWH who were more immunodeficient at the first VTE, marked by a better CD4+ T-cell recovery on antiretroviral therapy and during anticoagulant therapy for the first VTE (adjusted HR: 0.81 per 100 cells/mm3 increase, 95% CI 0.67-0.97, p = 0.02). Sensitivity analyses addressing potential sources of bias confirmed our principal analyses. The main study limitations are that VTEs were adjudicated differently in the cohorts and that diagnostic practices changed during the 20-year study period. Conclusions Overall, the risk of recurrent VTE was elevated in PWH compared to controls. Among PWH, recurrence risk appeared to decrease with greater CD4+ T-cell recovery after a first VTE. This is relevant when deciding to (dis)continue anticoagulant therapy in PWH with otherwise unprovoked first VTE. Author summary Why was this study done? The HIV pandemic affects approximately 40 million people and causes significant morbidity, including a markedly increased risk of a venous thromboembolism (VTE). The recurrence risk of VTE in people living with HIV (PWH) is unknown, although this risk drives the anticoagulant therapy duration after a first VTE. Our study determined the recurrent VTE risk in PWH compared to uninfected controls. What did the researchers do and find? We performed an observational cohort study using data from the national ATHENA PWH cohort (2003-2015) in the Netherlands and the Dutch Multiple Environmenta

External validation of the PAGE-B score for HCC risk prediction in people living with HIV/HBV coinfection.

BACKGROUND & AIMS Hepatitis B virus (HBV) coinfection is common among people living with HIV (PLWH) and the most important cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Whereas risk prediction tools for HCC exist for patients with HBV monoinfection, they have not been evaluated in PLWH. We performed an external validation of PAGE-B in people with HIV/HBV coinfection. METHODS We included PLWH with a positive HBsAg and without HCC before starting tenofovir from four European cohorts, and estimated the predictive performance of PAGE-B on HCC occurrence over 15 years of tenofovir-containing antiretroviral therapy (ART). Model discrimination was assessed after multiple imputation using Cox regression with the prognostic index as covariate, and by calculating Harrell's c-index. Calibration was assessed by comparing cumulative incidences with the PAGE-B derivation study using Kaplan-Meier curves. RESULTS In total, 2'963 individuals with HIV/HBV coinfection on tenofovir-containing ART were included. PAGE-B was <10 in 26.5%, 10-17 in 57.7%, and ≥18 in 15.7% of patients. Within a median follow-up of 9.6 years, HCC occurred in 68 individuals (2.58/1000 patient-years, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.03-3.27). The regression slope of the prognostic index for developing HCC within 15 years was 0.93 (95% CI 0.61-1.25), and the pooled c-index was 0.77 (range 0.73-0.80), both indicating good model discrimination. Cumulative incidence of HCC was lower in our study compared to the derivation study. A PAGE-B cut-off of <10 had a negative predictive value for developing HCC within 5 years of 99.4%. Restricting efforts to individuals with a PAGE-B of ≥10 would spare HCC screening in 27% of individuals. CONCLUSIONS For individuals with HIV/HBV coinfection, PAGE-B is a valid tool to determine the need for HCC screening. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is the most important cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among people living with HIV, and valid risk prediction may guide HCC screening efforts to high-risk individuals. We aimed at validating PAGE-B, a risk prediction tool that is based on age, gender, and platelets, among 2963 individuals with HIV/HBV coinfection who received tenofovir-containing antiretroviral therapy. In the present study, PAGE-B showed good discrimination, adequate calibration, and a cut-off of less than 10 had a negative predictive value for developing HCC within 5 years of 99.4%. These results indicate that PAGE-B is a simple and valid risk prediction tool to determine the need for HCC screening among people living with HIV and HBV

Measuring the Quality of Data Collection in a Large Observational Cohort of HIV and AIDS

The aim of this study was to examine the quality of data collection by studying the validity of collected data. Data were extracted from the clinic charts of two anonymous outpatients by 38 data collectors. A standard for the data to be collected was determined (168 items). The validity was measured by comparing the collected items with the standard; in this way, the percentages of the collected items that were ‘correct’ could be calculated. The percentage ‘correct’ was higher for clinic chart 1 (mean: 83% correct, SD 7%) than for clinic chart 2 (mean: 78% correct, SD 8%). All categories contained incorrectly collected data. These data were divided into missing data, incorrect start-stop dates, and surplus collected data. Almost all start-stop dates would change into ‘correct’ if ‘monthyear’ was considered correct (instead of the standard ‘daymonthyear’). Not all data collectors used specific protocols, and sources other than the written comments were not always checked. This study shows that a high proportion of data was correctly collected. However, the collection of start-stop dates was not optimal, and the collected data included surplus and missing data. Data collectors should be more knowledgeable about HIV disease and trained in the use of difficult protocols, so that they can better recognize what data to collect and how it should be collected. Among physicians, there should be more agreement about what information to record in the charts, to facilitate data extraction for data collectors

Low Risk of Failing Direct-Acting Antivirals in People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Hepatitis C Virus From Sub-Saharan Africa or Southeastern Asia: A European Cross-Sectional Study

Background: Several studies have reported suboptimal efficacy of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) to treat hepatitis C virus (HCV) subtypes endemic to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Southeastern Asia (SEA). The extent of this issue in individuals with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/HCV from SSA or SEA residing in Europe is unknown. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data from several prospective European cohorts of people living with HIV. We included individuals with HIV/HCV who originated from SSA or SEA, were treated with interferon-free DAAs, and had an available HCV RNA result ≥12 weeks after the end of treatment. The primary outcome was sustained virological response at least 12 weeks after the end of treatment (SVR12). Results: Of the 3293 individuals with HIV/HCV treated with DAA and with available SVR12 data, 142 were from SSA (n = 64) and SEA (n = 78). SVR12 was achieved by 60 (94% [95% confidence interval {CI}, 86%-98%]) individuals from SSA and 76 (97% [95% CI, 92%-99%]) from SEA. The genotypes of the 6 individuals failing DAA treatment were 2, 3a, 3h, 4a, 4c, and 6j. For 2 of the 4 unsuccessfully treated individuals with available sequence data at treatment failure, NS5A resistance-associated substitutions were present (30R/93S in an individual with genotype 4c and 31M in an individual with genotype 6j). Conclusions: SVR12 rates were high in individuals with HIV/HCV residing in Europe and originating from regions where intrinsically NS5A-resistant HCV strains are endemic. HCV elimination for this population in Europe is unlikely to be hampered by suboptimal DAA efficacy. Keywords: coinfection; elimination; hepatitis C virus; human immunodeficiency viru

Reasons for not commencing direct-acting antiviral treatment despite unrestricted access for individuals with HIV and hepatitis C virus: a multinational, prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND Individuals with HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) who remain untreated with direct-acting antivirals can contribute to HCV transmission and HCV-related mortality. We aimed to compare rates of uptake of direct-acting antivirals following unrestricted access to this treatment in high-income countries and examine factors associated with remaining untreated. METHODS This multinational, prospective cohort study used data from the International Collaboration on Hepatitis C Elimination in HIV Cohorts (InCHEHC). We analysed data from nine observational cohorts participating in the InCHEHC, including data from six high-income countries (Australia, Canada, France, the Netherlands, Spain, and Switzerland). We included individuals aged 18 years and older, with HIV and HCV (ie, HCV-RNA positive without evidence of spontaneous clearance) during unrestricted access to interferon-free direct-acting antiviral treatment in each country. We calculated the cumulative proportion of participants who remained untreated with direct-acting antivirals, with follow-up starting after the date of unrestricted access or cohort inclusion, whichever occurred most recently. Factors associated with the commencement rate of direct-acting antiviral treatment were assessed using competing-risks regression with the Fine-Gray method. FINDINGS The date of unrestricted access to direct-acting antiviral treatment for people with HIV ranged from Nov 1, 2014, in France to Nov 1, 2017, in Switzerland. We included 4552 individuals with HIV-HCV, mainly men who have sex with men (MSM; n=2156 [47%]) and people who inject or have injected drugs (n=1453 [32%]). 1365 (30%) of 4552 participants remained untreated with direct-acting antivirals. For individuals treated with direct-acting antivirals, median time from start of follow-up to treatment was 5 months (IQR 2-12). For individuals who were not treated with direct-acting antivirals, median follow-up was 22 months (8-30). Being linked to care in Australia, France, or the Netherlands, on antiretroviral therapy, having undetectable HIV RNA, and shorter duration since first positive HCV test were independently associated with higher commencement rate of direct-acting antiviral treatment. Compared with MSM, male heterosexuals and females with unknown or other routes of HIV transmission (ie, neither injection drug use nor heterosexual transmission) had lower rates of commencement. INTERPRETATION Despite unrestricted access, almost a third of individuals with HIV-HCV remained untreated with direct-acting antivirals during follow-up, with variation in commencement rate of HCV treatment between countries and key populations. Increased efforts are required to reach the remaining individuals with HIV who are HCV-viraemic to achieve HIV-HCV micro-elimination. FUNDING None

Treatment as prevention effect of direct-acting antivirals on primary hepatitis C virus incidence: Findings from a multinational cohort between 2010 and 2019.

BACKGROUND Broad direct-acting antiviral (DAA) access may reduce hepatitis C virus (HCV) incidence through a "treatment as prevention" (TasP) effect. We assessed changes in primary HCV incidence following DAA access among people living with HIV (PLHIV). METHODS We used pooled individual-level data from six cohorts from the International Collaboration on Hepatitis C Elimination in HIV Cohorts (InCHEHC). Follow-up started from the first recorded negative HCV antibody test date and ended at last negative antibody test or estimated infection date. Follow-up was restricted to 2010-2019. We used segmented Poisson regression to model trends across pre-, limited- (i.e., restrictions on access) and broad-DAA access periods. FINDINGS Overall, 45,942 participants had at least one HCV antibody negative result and follow-up between 2010 and 2019. We observed 2042 incident HCV infections over 248,189 person-years (PY). Pooled incidence decreased from 0.91 per 100 PY in 2015 to 0.41 per 100 PY in 2019. Compared to the average pre-DAA period incidence (0.90 per 100 PY), average incidence was similar during the limited-DAA access period (Incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.98; 95%CI = 0.87, 1.11), and 52% lower during the broad-DAA access period (IRR = 0.48; 95%CI = 0.42, 0.52). The average annual decline in HCV incidence was 2% in the pre-DAA period; an additional 9% annual decline in incidence was observed during the limited-DAA access period (IRR = 0.91; 95%CI = 0.82, 1.00) and a further 20% decline in the broad-DAA access period (IRR = 0.80, 95%CI = 0.73, 0.89). INTERPRETATION Our findings suggest that broad DAA access has a TasP effect on primary HCV incidence among PLHIV. Based on the initial years of DAA availability, the countries in the InCHEHC collaboration are on track to meet the World Health Organization's 80% HCV incidence reduction target for PLHIV by 2030. FUNDING This study was funded by the Australian Government National Health and Medical Research Council (Grant number GNT1132902)