Tax burden and incidence in the history of taxation by state governments

The objective of this paper is to view the twentieth century changes in the structure of state taxation in a historical perspective to understand the tax burden acceptable at the state level and the incidence of that tax incidence from proportional to progressive taxes and vice versa. The tax burden and incidence in four different states from four different regions of the country, California, Indiana, Kentucky, and New York, will then be compared for the decade of the 1970\u27s to determine if a pattern of change in the tax burden and tax incidence existed at the time of the revolts

Non-response bias in estimates of HIV prevalence due to the mobility of absentees in national population-based surveys: a study of nine national surveys

OBJECTIVES: To measure the bias in national estimates of HIV prevalence in population-based surveys caused by mobility and refusal to test. METHODS: Data from nine demographic and health surveys and AIDS indicator surveys were used. Non-responders were divided into three groups: (i) "refusals" who were interviewed but not tested; (ii) "refusals" who were present in the household but not interviewed or tested; and (iii) "absentees" who were absent from the household. Correction for HIV status was made for the non-responders using multiple imputation methods with logistic regression models based on a common set of household-level and individual-level sociodemographic and behavioural factors for those tested and stratified by mobility status. RESULTS: The non-response groups were corrected to have higher risks of HIV than those who participated in the HIV tests, although these were only detected to be statistically significant in some of the countries. In Lesotho, the corrected prevalence for the absent household members was significantly higher than for those who were present in the household. However, the adjusted prevalences differed by less than a percentage point from the prevalences observed among those who were tested, so the overall effects of non-response on national estimates of HIV prevalence are minimal. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that the mobility of absentees does not substantially bias estimates of HIV prevalence from population-based surveys. None the less, if levels of non-response are high or if non-responders differ greatly from those who participate in HIV testing with respect to HIV status, non-response could still bias national estimates of HIV prevalence

Influence of timing of sexual debut and first marriage on sexual behaviour in later life: findings from four survey rounds in the Kisesa cohort in northern Tanzania

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate quality of sexual debut and first marriage data, measure trends and study the association of risky sexual behaviour in youth with adult risk behaviour. METHODS: Reports on age at first sex (AFS) and age at first marriage (AFM) from the Kisesa cohort study, 1994-2004, were evaluated for consistency and used to describe trends in median age-at-event and time spent single but sexually active in different birth cohorts. The association of these variables with marital stability and numbers of partners at later ages was explored using statistical regression techniques. RESULTS: AFS and AFM were inconsistently reported by 32% and 33% of respondents, respectively, but there was no general tendency to report lower or higher ages at a later report date. In 10-year birth cohorts born between 1950-9 and 1980-9, male median AFS declined from 18.1 to 17.0 years and female median AFM rose from 16.2 to 16.6 years. Young people of both sexes currently spend longer sexually active but unmarried than previously. Early marriage is statistically associated with remarriage and polygamy; longer time between sexual debut and marriage is associated with higher numbers of partners at later stages of life. CONCLUSION: Inconsistent reporting of age-at-event introduces noise but does not bias estimates of population level indicators. Lengthening time spent single and sexually active suggests that men and women entering first marriage will have been exposed to increased numbers of non-marital partners. Successful youth interventions may also influence adult behaviour

Embracing different approaches to estimating HIV incidence, prevalence and mortality

Background: Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and Murray et al. have both produced sets of estimates for worldwide HIV incidence, prevalence and mortality. Understanding differences in these estimates can strengthen the interpretation of each

Trends in sexual activity and demand for and use of modern contraceptive methods in 74 countries. A retrospective analysis of nationally representative surveys

Background A quarter of a century ago, two global events—the International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo, and the Fourth World Conference on Women in Beijing—placed gender equality and reproductive health and rights at the centre of the development agenda. Progress towards these goals has been slower than hoped. We used survey data and national-level indicators of social determinants from 74 countries to examine change in satisfaction of contraceptive need from a contextual perspective. Methods We searched for individual-level data from repeated nationally representative surveys that included information on sexual and reproductive health, and created a single dataset by harmonising data from each survey to a standard data specification. We described the relative timings of sexual initiation, first union (cohabitation or marriage), and first birth and used logistic regression to show the change in prevalence of sexual activity, demand for contraception, and modern contraceptive use. We used linear regression to examine country-level associations between the gender development index and the expected length of time in education for women and the three outcomes: sexual activity, demand for contraception, and modern contraceptive use. We used principal component analysis to describe countries using a combination of social-structural and behavioural indicators and assessed how well the components explained countrylevel variation in the proportion of women using contraception with fractional logistic regression. Findings In 34 of the 74 countries examined, proportions of all women who were sexually active, not wanting to conceive, and not using a modern contraceptive method decreased over time. Proportions of women who had been sexually active in the past year changed over time in 43 countries, with increases in 30 countries; demand for contraception increased in 42 countries, and use of a modern method of contraception increased in 37 countries. Increases over time in met need for contraception were correlated with increases in gender equality and with women’s time in education. Regression analysis on the principal components showed that country-level variation in met contraceptive need was largely explained by a single component that combined behavioural and social-contextual variables. Interpretation Progress towards satisfying demand for contraception should take account of the changing context in which it is practised. To remove the remaining barriers, policy responses—and therefore research priorities—could require a stronger focus on social-structural determinants and broader aspects of sexual health. Funding UNDP/UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction

Use of microsatellite-based paternity assignment to establish where Corn Crake <i>Crex crex</i> chicks are at risk from mechanized mowing

We used microsatellite DNA to assign probable parentage of young Corn Crakes to adult males and females and used these assignments to estimate the distribution of distances between broods of chicks and juveniles and the night-time singing place of the father at the time of initiation of the clutch. Estimated distances for broods of young chicks were in accord with those estimated previously by radiotracking, but distances were greater for older unfledged independent chicks not studied previously. Our results indicate that modifications of the timing and method of mowing to reduce losses of nests and chicks should be implemented inside an area within about 500 m of the singing places of male Corn Crakes, rather than the 250 m previously considered to be safe

Trends in the burden of HIV mortality after roll-out of antiretroviral therapy in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: an observational community cohort study.

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) substantially decreases morbidity and mortality in people living with HIV. In this study, we describe population-level trends in the adult life expectancy and trends in the residual burden of HIV mortality after the roll-out of a public sector ART programme in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, one of the populations with the most severe HIV epidemics in the world. Data come from the Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS), an observational community cohort study in the uMkhanyakude district in northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We used non-parametric survival analysis methods to estimate gains in the population-wide life expectancy at age 15 years since the introduction of ART, and the shortfall of the population-wide adult life expectancy compared with that of the HIV-negative population (ie, the life expectancy deficit). Life expectancy gains and deficits were further disaggregated by age and cause of death with demographic decomposition methods. Covering the calendar years 2001 through to 2014, we obtained information on 93 903 adults who jointly contribute 535 42 8 person-years of observation to the analyses and 9992 deaths. Since the roll-out of ART in 2004, adult life expectancy increased by 15·2 years for men (95% CI 12·4-17·8) and 17·2 years for women (14·5-20·2). Reductions in pulmonary tuberculosis and HIV-related mortality account for 79·7% of the total life expectancy gains in men (8·4 adult life-years), and 90·7% in women (12·8 adult life-years). For men, 9·5% is the result of a decline in external injuries. By 2014, the life expectancy deficit had decreased to 1·2 years for men (-2·9 to 5·8) and to 5·3 years for women (2·6-7·8). In 2011-14, pulmonary tuberculosis and HIV were responsible for 84·9% of the life expectancy deficit in men and 80·8% in women. The burden of HIV on adult mortality in this population is rapidly shrinking, but remains large for women, despite their better engagement with HIV-care services. Gains in adult life-years lived as well as the present life expectancy deficit are almost exclusively due to differences in mortality attributed to HIV and pulmonary tuberculosis. Wellcome Trust, the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institutes of Health

Contemporary geomorphological activity throughout the proglacial area of an alpine catchment

Quantification of contemporary geomorphological activity is a fundamental prerequisite for predicting the effects of future earth surface process and landscape development changes. However, there is a lack of high-resolution spatial and temporal data on geomorphological activity within alpine catchments, which are especially sensitive to climate change, human impacts and which are amongst the most dynamic landscapes on Earth. This study used data from repeated laser scanning to identify and quantify the distribution of contemporary sediment sources and the intensity of geomorphological activity within the lower part of a glaciated alpine catchment; Ödenwinkelkees, central Austria. Spatially, geomorphological activity was discriminated by substrate class. Activity decreased in both areal extent and intensity with distance from the glacier, becoming progressively more restricted to the fluvially-dominated valley floor. Temporally, geomorphological activity was identified on annual, seasonal, weekly and daily timescales. Activity became more extensive with increasing study duration but more intense over shorter timescales, thereby demonstrating the importance of temporary storage of sediment within the catchment. The mean volume of material moved within the proglacial zone was 4400m.yr, which suggests a net surface lowering of 34mm.yr in this part of the catchment. We extrapolate a minimum of 4.8mm.yr net surface lowering across the whole catchment. These surface lowering values are approximately twice those calculated elsewhere from contemporary measurements of suspended sediment flux, and of rates calculated from the geological record, perhaps because we measure total geomorphological activity within the catchment rather than overall efflux of material. Repeated geomorphological surveying therefore appears to mitigate the problems of hydrological studies underestimating sediment fluxes on decadal-annual time-scales. Further development of the approach outlined in this study will enable the quantification of geomorphological activity, alpine terrain stability and persistence of landforms