Lignocellulosic Ethanol: The Path to Market

The cost effective production of transport fuels from biomass is essential if the EU aspiration to substitute 10% of transport fuels with sustainable alternatives by 2020 is to be met. The hope, voiced by the Parliament’s Industry and Energy Committee, is that at least 40% of the 2020 target will come from second-generation biofuels, and therein lies the challenge: second-generation conversion technologies are not yet commercial. Multiple pathways are being investigated around the globe, but dominant pathways have yet to emerge and business models have yet to be proven. Nevertheless, expectations are running high and there has been significant investment in R&D in the US, Europe and Asia. The production of ethanol from lignocellulosic biomass is commercially and environmentally one of the most promising options, and in 2007 the US Department of Energy (DOE) provided more than US$1 billion toward lignocellulosic ethanol (LE) projects. Their goal was to make the fuel cost competitive at$1.33 per gallon, when deployed at scale, by 2012. The majority of studies also suggest that LE will result in superior greenhouse gas savings compared to ethanol produced from starch. Despite favourable predictions for cost and environmental performance, market deployment requires practical and plausible development paths that are able to support progress from existing small-scale demonstration plant to large industrial installations. Moreover, these development paths must be sufficiently attractive to persuade developers and investors that lignocellulosic ethanol remains an opportunity worth pursuing

Prioritising the best use of biomass resources: conceptualising trade-offs

02.09.13 KB. Ok to add report to Spiral. Authors hold copyrightUsing biomass to provide energy services is one of the most versatile options for increasing the proportion of renewable energy in the existing system. This report reviews metrics used to compare alternative bio-energy pathways and identifies limitations inherent in the way that they are calculated and interpreted. It also looks at how companies and investors approach strategic decisions in the bio-energy area. Bio-energy pathways have has physical and economic attributes that can be measured or modelled. These include: the capital cost, operating cost, emissions to air, land and water. Conceptually, comparing alternative pathways is as simple as selecting the attributes and metrics you consider to be most important and ranking the alternative pathways accordingly. At an abstract level there is good agreement about which features of bio-energy pathways are desirable, but there is little agreement about which performance metrics best capture all the relevant information about a bio-energy pathway. Between studies there is also a great deal of variation and this impedes comparison. Common metrics describe energetic performance, economic performance, environmental performance (emissions, land and water use), and social and ecological performance. Compound metrics may be used to integrate multiple attributes but their highly aggregate nature may make them difficult to interpret. Insights that may be drawn from the analysis include:

The UK bio-energy resource base to 2050: estimates, assumptions, and uncertainties

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Global bioenergy resources

Using biomass to provide energy services is a strategically important option for increasing the global uptake of renewable energy. Yet the practicalities of accelerating deployment are mired in controversy over the potential resource conflicts that might occur, particularly over land, water and biodiversity conservation. This calls into question whether policies to promote bioenergy are justified. Here we examine the assumptions on which global bioenergy resource estimates are predicated. We find that there is a disjunct between the evidence that global bioenergy studies can provide and policymakers' desire for estimates that can straightforwardly guide policy targets. We highlight the need for bottom-up assessments informed by empirical studies, experimentation and cross-disciplinary learning to better inform the policy debate

Using participatory system dynamics modelling to quantify indirect land use changes of biofuel projects

The use of biomass to produce biofuels can lead to both direct and indirect Land Use Change (LUC). While the causes underlying LUCs are complex their quantification is a scientific challenge that hinders decision-making. Here we demonstrate the application of participatory modelling in combination with System Dynamics techniques to the analysis of the land-change dynamics associated with biofuel supply chains. The ambition is to provide decision-makers with useful and credible knowledge of direct and indirect LUCs. We illustrate the application of the approach by applying it to a real‐world project for the production of advanced biofuels in Sardinia (Italy). The results show that the land use displacements vary in intensity and persistence depending on the crop management regime applied and the future development of the market of sheep cheese. The results were considered credible by actors with direct knowledge of the ‘real’ system and useful by decision makers

The potential demand for bioenergy in residential heating applications (bio-heat) in the UK based on a market segment analysis

How large is the potential demand for bio-heat in the UK? Whilst most research has focused on the supply of biomass for energy production, an understanding of the potential demand is crucial to the uptake of heat from bioenergy. We have designed a systematic framework utilising market segmentation techniques to assess the potential demand for biomass heat in the UK. First, the heat market is divided into relevant segments, characterised in terms of their final energy consumption, technological and fuel supply options. Second, the key technical, economic and organisational factors that affect the uptake of bioenergy in each heat segment are identified, classified and then analysed to reveal which could be strong barriers, which could be surmounted easily, and for which bioenergy heat represents an improvement compared to alternatives. The defined framework is applied to the UK residential sector. We identify provisionally the most promising market segments for bioenergy heat, and their current levels of energy demand. We find that, depending on the assumptions, the present potential demand for bio-heat in the UK residential sector ranges between 3% (conservative estimate) and 31% (optimistic estimate) of the total energy consumed in the heat market

The potential demand for bioenergy in residential heating applications (bio-heat) in the UK based on a market segment analysis

How large is the potential demand for bio-heat in the UK? Whilst most research has focused on the supply of biomass for energy production, an understanding of the potential demand is crucial to the uptake of heat from bioenergy. We have designed a systematic framework utilising market segmentation techniques to assess the potential demand for biomass heat in the UK. First, the heat market is divided into relevant segments, characterised in terms of their final energy consumption, technological and fuel supply options. Second, the key technical, economic and organisational factors that affect the uptake of bioenergy in each heat segment are identified, classified and then analysed to reveal which could be strong barriers, which could be surmounted easily, and for which bioenergy heat represents an improvement compared to alternatives. The defined framework is applied to the UK residential sector. We identify provisionally the most promising market segments for bioenergy heat, and their current levels of energy demand. We find that, depending on the assumptions, the present potential demand for bio-heat in the UK residential sector ranges between 3% (conservative estimate) and 31% (optimistic estimate) of the total energy consumed in the heat market