Eco-Forecasting for Domestic Electricity Use

Over the past decade we have seen an increased awareness about domestic energy consumption and a growing focus on eco-feedback displays. In this paper we explore the concept of providing forecasts in such displays as a supplement to information about past usage. Our prototype, eForecast, extends the display of past electricity usage with forecasts about expected usage, electricity price, availability of wind power, and expected demand drops and peaks. Building on previous eco-feedback display research, our approach specifically enables people to use electricity at more opportune times – when it is cheap, green, or when there is an abundance of capacity. We evaluated eForecast in real world use in three domestic households for 22 weeks, where we explored potentials and limitations of forecasting for shifting electricity consumption. In this way, families were able to act in a more sustainable way – without necessarily reducing the amount of electricity consumed. Author Keywords Sustainability; forecasting; energy consumption; domesti

Accuracy of a Clinical Applicable Method for Prediction of VO ₂max Using Seismocardiography

Cardiorespiratory fitness measured as ˙VO2max is considered an important variable in the risk prediction of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality. Non-exercise ˙VO2max prediction models are applicable, but lack accuracy. Here a model for the prediction of ˙VO2max using seismocardiography (SCG) was investigated. 97 healthy participants (18-65 yrs., 51 females) underwent measurement of SCG at rest in the supine position combined with demographic data to predict ˙VO2max before performing a graded exercise test (GET) on a cycle ergometer for determination of ˙VO2max using pulmonary gas exchange measurements for comparison. Accuracy assessment revealed no significant difference between SCG and GET ˙VO2max (mean±95% CI; 38.3±1.6 and 39.3±1.6 ml·min-1·kg-1, respectively. P=0.075). Further, a Pearson correlation of r=0.73, a standard error of estimate (SEE) of 5.9 ml·min-1·kg-1, and a coefficient of variation (CV) of 8±1% were found. The SCG ˙VO2max showed higher accuracy, than the non-exercise model based on the FRIENDS study, when this was applied to the present population (bias=-3.7±1.3 ml·min-1·kg-1, p&lt;0.0001. r=0.70. SEE=7.4 ml·min-1·kg-1, and CV=12±2%). The SCG ˙VO2max prediction model is an accurate method for the determination of ˙VO2max in a healthy adult population. However, further investigation on the validity and reliability of the SCG ˙VO2max prediction model in different populations is needed for consideration of clinical applicability.</p

Rapid ecological shift following piscivorous fish introduction to increasingly eutrophic and warmer Lake Furnas (Azores Archipelago, Portugal): A paleoecological approach

Lake ecosystems are nowadays often subjected to multi-stressors, such as eutrophication, climate change, and fish manipulations, the effects of which can be difficult to disentangle, not least from the usual short-term limnological time-series that are available. However, multi-proxy paleoecological approaches may offer such opportunities, especially in the study of remote island lakes characterized by being species poor and buffered somewhat against the recent climate change. We used a paleoecological multi-proxy approach to determine the relative importance of nutrient loading, meteorological forcing, and fish species introduction for recent lake ecosystem development in Lake Furnas on the island of São Miguel, the Azores. The lake was stocked with cyprinids in the late nineteenth century and recently also with piscivorous fish, and has been affected by increasing agricultural activities in its catchment. We analyzed marker pigments, cladoceran remains, and subfossil diatoms in a 46-cm core representing the last 40 years. Remains of large-bodied cladocerans were virtually absent until the introductions of piscivorous pike and pikeperch in 1980 and 1982, respectively, after which the zooplankton community composition changed abruptly. First Ceriodaphnia sp. appeared (ca. 1980), followed by Daphnia a few years later. Carotenoids from cyanobacteria (myxoxanthophyll, aphanizophyll) were regularly present in the lake sediment with a major shift occurring around 1994, from N2-fixing to non-fixing groups. This shift coincided with the onset of anoxia in the lake water, evidenced by the presence of pigments from Chlorobiaceae (BChl-e homologues and isorenieratene), and with a rapid decrease in benthic-tychoplanktonic diatoms and an increase in cyanobacteria, chlorophytes, dinoflagellates, and cryptophytes. The composition of microbial and algal assemblages changed rapidly after Daphnia appearance, and the covariance between fish stocking, nutrient loading, and enhanced temperatures captured most of the variability in algae accumulation, and thus likely in lake primary production as well. Thus, lake production apparently did not respond strongly to specific changes in temperature, food-web structure, or nutrient input, but rather to the combined effects of all the three forcing mechanisms, emphasizing the role of multi-stressors in lake ecosystem functioning. Our study demonstrates the sensitivity of these remote species-poor lakes to increased nutrient loading, introduction of non-native species, such as fish and climate change