An Evaluation of Design and Inference in Special Topics of Group Sequential Procedures

Randomized trials are the gold standard for the clinical assessment of a new treatment compared to a placebo or standard of care. Often in clinical trials, patients are accrued sequentially rather than all at once. Thus, the data from such a trial becomes available sequentially to the researcher. Monitoring and testing the accrued data throughout a trial and making decisions based on on such tests that could terminate the trial early is called sequential testing. Designing and analyzing such sequential trials has garnered much attention in the statistical literature over the last 50+ years. The added flexibility and benefi ts from such a trial do not come free-of-cost. Careful considerations in the design, careful monitoring of the data throughout, and careful analysis of the data at the conclusion are necessary to preserve the integrity of such a sequential clinical trial. This thesis will be mostly concerned with a special form of sequential testing called a group sequential procedure. Such procedures have the benefi t of a reduction in expected sample size while not being burdened by continual monitoring of the data after every observation. Special topics of group sequential procedures include the concepts of overrun, secondary endpoints and adaptive group sequential procedures. Overrun is the accrual of data after the decision to terminate the trial has been reached. We investigate and compare popular approaches to the incorporation of such data into the final analysis. Through a simulation study, it is found that a random weighting of the p-values from the data up to the termination of the trial and the overrun data based the sample sizes for such data under the Sample Mean Ordering of the outcome space leads to the shortest average con fidence intervals while maintaining the nominal coverage probability. Most clinical trials are designed and evaluated using a primary endpoint for the treatment eff ect. Some trials have secondary endpoints to assess either safety or additional clinical benefi ts beyond the primary outcome. We consider the design and analysis of group sequential trials when both a primary and secondary endpoint are of interest. Our investigations are done in the setting of a gatekeeping procedure. We are able to unify and generalize global proofs to certain propositions made by other researchers when we consider testing both a primary and secondary endpoint. We further investigate secondary inference in the form of con fidence interval construction through an extensive simulation study. We find that the approach of Whitehead et al. (2000) outperforms existing methods for the settings considered. Adaptive clinical trials seek to modify some aspect of the trial after an interim look at the data in order to improve the odds of a successful trial by the end. We compare some popular choices of adaptive Phase II two-stage designs and introduce a new design while evaluating operating characteristics (Type I error, Type II error and expected sample sizes). Majority of the literature focuses on minimizing the expected sample size under the null hypothesis only. Our new Quasi-Symmetric n₂-design seeks to substantially reduce the expected sample size under the parameter values close to the design alternative while minimally increasing expected sample size under the design null. We evaluate and compare such a design to existing methods

Effect of Universal Testing and Treatment on HIV Incidence - HPTN 071 (PopART).

BACKGROUND: A universal testing and treatment strategy is a potential approach to reduce the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, yet previous trial results are inconsistent. METHODS: In the HPTN 071 (PopART) community-randomized trial conducted from 2013 through 2018, we randomly assigned 21 communities in Zambia and South Africa (total population, approximately 1 million) to group A (combination prevention intervention with universal antiretroviral therapy [ART]), group B (the prevention intervention with ART provided according to local guidelines [universal since 2016]), or group C (standard care). The prevention intervention included home-based HIV testing delivered by community workers, who also supported linkage to HIV care and ART adherence. The primary outcome, HIV incidence between months 12 and 36, was measured in a population cohort of approximately 2000 randomly sampled adults (18 to 44 years of age) per community. Viral suppression (<400 copies of HIV RNA per milliliter) was assessed in all HIV-positive participants at 24 months. RESULTS: The population cohort included 48,301 participants. Baseline HIV prevalence was 21% or 22% in each group. Between months 12 and 36, a total of 553 new HIV infections were observed during 39,702 person-years (1.4 per 100 person-years; women, 1.7; men, 0.8). The adjusted rate ratio for group A as compared with group C was 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74 to 1.18; P = 0.51) and for group B as compared with group C was 0.70 (95% CI, 0.55 to 0.88; P = 0.006). The percentage of HIV-positive participants with viral suppression at 24 months was 71.9% in group A, 67.5% in group B, and 60.2% in group C. The estimated percentage of HIV-positive adults in the community who were receiving ART at 36 months was 81% in group A and 80% in group B. CONCLUSIONS: A combination prevention intervention with ART provided according to local guidelines resulted in a 30% lower incidence of HIV infection than standard care. The lack of effect with universal ART was unanticipated and not consistent with the data on viral suppression. In this trial setting, universal testing and treatment reduced the population-level incidence of HIV infection. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others; HPTN 071 [PopArt] ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01900977.)

Viral suppression and self-reported ART adherence after 3 years of universal testing and treatment in the HPTN 071 (PopART) community-randomised trial in Zambia and South Africa: a cross-sectional analysis.

BACKGROUND: In 2014, UNAIDS set the target that 90% of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) be virally suppressed. Here, we use data from the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial to report whether the introduction of universal testing and treatment has affected viral suppression or treatment adherence among individuals who self-reported they were taking ART, and identify risk factors for these outcomes. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study nested within the randomly selected population cohort of the PopART trial. The trial took place in 21 communities in Zambia and South Africa. Analyses included 3570 HIV-positive participants who were seen at the second follow-up visit in 2016-17 and who self-reported that they were currently taking ART. Viral suppression was defined as HIV RNA of less than 400 copies per mL from a blood sample collected during the cohort visit, and ART adherence was measured using self-reporting (reported as no missed pills in last 7 days). Prevalences of these outcomes were compared across three trial arms using a two-stage approach suitable for clustered data. Each arm consisted of seven communities, with one arm receiving a combination HIV prevention package including immediate ART initiation, one receiving a combination HIV prevention package excluding immediate ART initiation and one arm receving standard of care. Risk factors for each of the outcomes were assessed using logistic regression. FINDINGS: Among the 3570 participants who self-reported that they were currently on ART, 416 (11·7%) of 3554 were not virally suppressed (16 were missing viral suppression status) and 345 (9·7%) of 3566 reported being non-adherent to ART (four were missing adherence status). The proportion not virally suppressed was higher in communities in South Africa (195 [16·4%] of 1191) than in Zambia (221 [9·4%] of 2363). There was no evidence that the prevalence of the outcomes differed between trial arms. There was evidence that men, younger individuals, individuals who reported participating in harmful alcohol use, and those who reported internalised stigma were more likely to be non-adherent, and not virally suppressed. INTERPRETATION: The results assuaged concerns that early ART initiation in a universal testing and treatment setting could lead to reduced adherence and viral suppression. FUNDING: US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (which is a part of the National Institutes of Health), the International Initiative for Impact Evaluation with support from the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, and Medical Research Council UK

Projected outcomes of universal testing and treatment in a generalised HIV epidemic in Zambia and South Africa (the HPTN 071 [PopART] trial): a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The long-term impact of universal home-based testing and treatment as part of universal testing and treatment (UTT) on HIV incidence is unknown. We made projections using a detailed individual-based model of the effect of the intervention delivered in the HPTN 071 (PopART) cluster-randomised trial. METHODS: In this modelling study, we fitted an individual-based model to the HIV epidemic and HIV care cascade in 21 high prevalence communities in Zambia and South Africa that were part of the PopART cluster-randomised trial (intervention period Nov 1, 2013, to Dec 31, 2017). The model represents coverage of home-based testing and counselling by age and sex, delivered as part of the trial, antiretroviral therapy (ART) uptake, and any changes in national guidelines on ART eligibility. In PopART, communities were randomly assigned to one of three arms: arm A received the full PopART intervention for all individuals who tested positive for HIV, arm B received the intervention with ART provided in accordance with national guidelines, and arm C received standard of care. We fitted the model to trial data twice using Approximate Bayesian Computation, once before data unblinding and then again after data unblinding. We compared projections of intervention impact with observed effects, and for four different scenarios of UTT up to Jan 1, 2030 in the study communities. FINDINGS: Compared with standard of care, a 51% (95% credible interval 40-60) reduction in HIV incidence is projected if the trial intervention (arms A and B combined) is continued from 2020 to 2030, over and above a declining trend in HIV incidence under standard of care. INTERPRETATION: A widespread and continued commitment to UTT via home-based testing and counselling can have a substantial effect on HIV incidence in high prevalence communities. FUNDING: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, International Initiative for Impact Evaluation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute on Drug Abuse, and National Institute of Mental Health

Projected outcomes of universal testing and treatment in a generalised HIV epidemic in Zambia and South Africa (the HPTN 071 [PopART] trial): a modelling study

Background The long-term impact of universal home-based testing and treatment as part of universal testing and treatment (UTT) on HIV incidence is unknown. We made projections using a detailed individual-based model of the effect of the intervention delivered in the HPTN 071 (PopART) cluster-randomised trial. Methods In this modelling study, we fitted an individual-based model to the HIV epidemic and HIV care cascade in 21 high prevalence communities in Zambia and South Africa that were part of the PopART cluster-randomised trial (intervention period Nov 1, 2013, to Dec 31, 2017). The model represents coverage of home-based testing and counselling by age and sex, delivered as part of the trial, antiretroviral therapy (ART) uptake, and any changes in national guidelines on ART eligibility. In PopART, communities were randomly assigned to one of three arms: arm A received the full PopART intervention for all individuals who tested positive for HIV, arm B received the intervention with ART provided in accordance with national guidelines, and arm C received standard of care. We fitted the model to trial data twice using Approximate Bayesian Computation, once before data unblinding and then again after data unblinding. We compared projections of intervention impact with observed effects, and for four different scenarios of UTT up to Jan 1, 2030 in the study communities. Findings Compared with standard of care, a 51% (95% credible interval 40–60) reduction in HIV incidence is projected if the trial intervention (arms A and B combined) is continued from 2020 to 2030, over and above a declining trend in HIV incidence under standard of care. Interpretation A widespread and continued commitment to UTT via home-based testing and counselling can have a substantial effect on HIV incidence in high prevalence communities. Funding National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, International Initiative for Impact Evaluation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute on Drug Abuse, and National Institute of Mental Health

Community based distribution of oral HIV self-testing kits in Zambia: a cluster-randomised trial nested in four HPTN 071 (PopART) intervention communities

Background The HPTN 071 (PopART) cluster-randomised trial provided door-to-door HIV testing services to a large proportion of individuals residing in 21 intervention communities in Zambia and South Africa from 2014 to 2017 and reached the UNAIDS first 90 target among women in Zambia, yet gaps remained among men and young adults. This cluster-randomised study nested in the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial sought to increase knowledge of HIV status across all groups by offering the choice of oral HIV self-testing in addition to routine door-to-door HIV testing services. Methods We nested this cluster-randomised trial in four HTPN 071 (PopART) intervention communities in northern Zambia. 66 zones (clusters) in these communities were randomly allocated (1:1) to either oral HIV self-testing plus routine door-to-door HIV testing services (HIV self-testing group) or the PopART standard of care of door-to-door HIV testing services alone (non- HIV self-testing group) over a 3-month period. All individuals aged 16 years or older were eligible for HIV testing. Randomisation was achieved by randomly selecting one allocation from a list of 10 000 possible allocations during a public ceremony. In HIV self-testing zones, trained lay-counsellors (known as community HIV care providers) visited households and offered eligible individuals the choice of HIV testing using HIV self-testing or routine door-to-door HIV testing services. For individuals aged 18 years or older whose partner was absent during the household visit, an HIV self-test kit could be left for secondary distribution to the absent partner. The primary outcome was knowledge of HIV status (defined as self-reporting HIV positive to the community HIV care providers or accepting an offer of HIV testing services). Outcomes were measured among households that were first visited, and individuals first enumerated as a household member during the HIV self-testing intervention period. We analysed data at the individual level using population-average logistic regression models, accounting for clustering of outcomes by zone, to estimate the effect of the intervention. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02994329. Findings Between Feb 1, and April 30, 2017, the community HIV care providers enumerated 13 267 eligible individuals in the HIV self-testing group and 13 706 in the non-HIV self-testing group. After intervention implementation, 9027 (68%) of 13 267 in the HIV self-testing group had knowledge of HIV status compared with 8952 (65%) of 13 706 in the non-HIV self-testing group (adjusted odds ratio 1·30, 95% CI 1·03–1·65; p=0·03). The effect differed by sex (pinteraction=0·01). Among men, knowledge of HIV status was higher in the HIV self-testing group than in the non-HIV self-testing group (3843 [60%] of 6368 vs 3571 [55%] of 6486; adjusted odds ratio 1·31, 95% CI 1·07–1·60; p=0·01). There was no evidence of a between-group difference among female participants. Interpretation Providing a choice of HIV self-testing during delivery of door-to-door HIV testing services increased knowledge of HIV status, driven by an effect among men. Lay counsellors have a vital role to play in adapting HIV self-testing interventions to local context