Determination of orbits of comets: P/Kearns-Kwee, P/Gunn, including nongravitational effects in the comets' motion

To improve the orbits, all the positional observations of the comets were collected. The observations were selected and weighted according to objective mathematical criteria and the mean residuals a priori were calculated for both comets. We took into account nongravitational effects in the comets' motion using Marsden's method applied in two ways: either determining the three constant parameters, A(sub 1), A(sub 2), A(sub 3) or the four parameters A, eta, I, phi connected with the rotating nucleus of the comet. To link successfully all the observations, we had to assume for both comets that A(t) = A(sub O)exp(-B x t) where B was an additional nongravitational parameter

How selection and weighting of astrometric observations influence the impact probability. Asteroid (99942) Apophis case

The aim is to show that in case of low probability of asteroid collision with Earth, the appropriate selection and weighing of the data are crucial for the impact investigation, and to analyze the impact possibilities using extensive numerical simulations. By means of the Monte Carlo special method a large number of ``clone'' orbits have been generated. A full range of orbital elements in the 6-dimensional parameter space, e.g. in the entire confidence region allowed by the observational material has been examined. On the basis of 1000 astrometric observations of (99942) Apophis, the best solution for the geocentric encounter distance of 6.065\pm 0.081 R_{Earth} were derived for the close encounter with the Earth on April 13, 2029. The present uncertainties allow for the special configurations (``keyholes'') during these encounter which may lead to the very close encounters in the future approaches of Apophis. Two groups of keyholes are connected with the close encounter with the Earth in 2036 (within the minimal distance of 5.7736-5.7763 R_{Earth} on April 13, 2029) and 2037 (within the minimal distance of 6.3359-6.3488 R_{Earth}). The nominal orbits for our most accurate models run almost exactly in the middle between these two impact keyhole groups. A very small keyhole for the impact in 2076 has been found between these groups at the minimal distance of 5.97347 R_{Earth} (close to the nominal orbit)

New catalogue of one-apparition comets discovered in the years 1901–1950

Context. The orbits of one-apparition comets discovered in the early part of the last century have formerly been determined with very different numerical methods and assumptions on the model of the solar system, including the number of planets taken into account. Moreover, observations of the comet-minus-star-type sometimes led to determination of the comet position that are less precise than what we can derive today by using a more modern star catalogue. Aims. We aim to provide a new catalogue of cometary orbits that are derived using a completely homogeneous data treatment, accurate numerical integration, and a modern model of the solar system. Methods. We collected the complete sets of observations for investigated comets from the original publications. Then we recalculated the cometary positions for the comet-minus-star-type of observations using the Positions and Proper Motions Star Catalogue, and applied a uniform method for the data selection and weighting. As a final result, new osculating orbits were determined. Secondly, dynamical calculations were performed to the distance of 250 AU from the Sun to derive original and future barycentric orbits for evolution backward and forward in time. These numerical calculations for a given object start from a swarm of virtual comets constructed using our osculating (nominal) orbit. In this way, we obtained the orbital element uncertainties of original and future barycentric orbits. Results. We present homogeneous sets of orbital elements for osculating, original, and future orbits for 38 one-apparition comets. Non-gravitational orbits are derived for thirteen of them