Dynamical evolution of COVID-19 in Italy with an evaluation of the size of the asymptomatic infective population

The present work deals with an Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) model specifically designed to describe the COVID-19 evolution in Italy. The model is particularised on the basis of National data about the infection status of the Italian population to obtain numerical solutions that effectively reproduce the real data. Our epidemic model is a classical SEIR model that incorporates two compartments of infected subpopulations, representing diagnosed and undiagnosed individuals respectively, and an additional quarantine compartment. Possible control actions representing social, political, and medical interventions are also included. The numerical results of the proposed model identification by least square fitting are analysed and commented with special emphasis on the estimation of the number of asymptomatic infective individuals. Our fitting results are in good agreement with the epidemiological data. Short and long-term predictions on the evolution of the disease are also given

An Integrated Approach to Assess the Water Efficiency of Introducing Best Management Practices: An Application to Sugarcane Mechanisation in Brazil

Management practices reputed to be the best are being introduced widely in the agricultural sector. The identification of what these best management practices are for a given cultivation area requires thorough assessment, using indicators that reduce the risk of unintended impacts and that help manage environmental and economic trade-offs. We propose an integrated assessment that includes two indicators in water footprint sustainability assessment: water apparent productivity and ecosystem services value, thereby considering the trade-offs in the two ecosystem services of water provisioning and erosion potential. The approach was tested in Mogí-Guaçú Pardo (Brazil), a basin that has been subjected to intensive land-use changes through the expansion of sugarcane plantations. Here, regulatory changes have also promoted the introduction of the new management practice of mechanised harvesting, thereby phasing out the practice of burning the fields before manual harvest. A probabilistic approach was applied to account for uncertainty in model parameters. The results reveal that sugarcane has a comparably high economic value but is a less efficient land-use type from a water-use perspective. The total green and blue water footprint in the basin increased by 12% from 2000 to 2012, mainly due to the increase in sugarcane area (+36%). The intensification in sugarcane harvesting practices led to improved economic water-use efficiency and also lowered erosion costs. Adding the new indicators and considering trade-offs linked to new management practices and/or land-use changes allow for more robust decision making

Phytochemical profile, antioxidant and antidiabetic activities of Adansonia digitata L. (baobab) from Mali, as source of health-promoting compounds

Background: Adansonia digitata L. (Malvaceae), also known as baobab, is a tree attracting recent interest especially due to the high nutritional value of the fruit pulp. However, few studies are reported on the secondary metabolite content, showing high variability due to geographic region. Methods: In this study, the chemical profiles of Malian commercial baobab fruits and leaves, focused on phenolic content, were investigated by HPLC coupled with a photodiode array (PDA)/UV and an electrospray ionization (ESI) mass spectrometer (MS) and gas chromatography (GC)/MS. In addition, the extracts of fruit pulps obtained from three different markets (Fruits 1, 2, and 3) were evaluated for their total phenolic content (TPC), antioxidant activity and α-glucosidase inhibition. Results: Baobab fruit pulps were found to be rich in procyanidins and flavonol glycosides, with tiliroside as the major constituent. The baobab leaves showed a similar profile respect to the fruits, but with more detected phenolics. All fruit pulp extracts exerted antioxidant activity (highest for Fruit 3) and higher α-glucosidase inhibition than acarbose used as standard. Conclusions: This study confirmed the variability of baobab with different origins and indicated Malian species baobab as promising source of health-promoting substances

Factors associated with perceived performance drops and musculoskeletal injuries in Brazilian recreational triathletes

OBJECTIVE The aim of the study was to investigate sleep characteristics, use of supplements, and training volume of recreational triathletes, and to verify possible associations with perceived performance drops and occurrence of injuries. MATERIALS AND METHODS Recreational triathletes (n=942) answered a questionnaire inquiring about their demographic characteristics, performance, injuries and training volume. RESULTS When comparing athletes who slept more (9-10 hours) with those who slept less, less sleep was associated with a higher prevalence of perceived performance drops. Regarding difficulties in initiating sleep, the absence of initiating difficulties (p<0.001) was a protective factor against perceived performance drops. Regarding weekly training volume, compared to those who trained more than 20 hours, training less than 3 hours (p<0.001), 3-5 hours (p<0.001), or 12-14 hours (p<0.001) were protective factors against perceived performance drops. Concerning training volume and injuries, we found that compared to those who trained more than 20 hours, training 18-20 hours (p<0.001), 15-17 hours (p<0.001), 12-14 hours (p<0.001), 6-8 hours (p<0.001), or 3-5 hours (p<0.001) were protective factors against injuries. CONCLUSIONS Triathletes with a lower sleep quantity and those who have difficulties initiating sleep frequently experience drops in performance. Training volumes can influence both performance and the likelihood of injuries

Future in the past: Azorella glabra wedd. as a source of new natural compounds with antiproliferative and cytotoxic activity on multiple myeloma cells

Multiple myeloma (MM) is the second most common hematologic malignancy and, although the development of novel agents has improved survival of patients, to date, it remains incurable. Thus, newer and more effective therapeutic strategies against this malignancy are necessary. Plant extracts play an important role in anti-tumor drug discovery. For this reason, in the investigation of novel natural anti-MM agents, we evaluated the phytochemical profiles, in vitro antioxidant activity, and effects on MM cells of Azorella glabra (AG) Wedd. Total polyphenols (TPC), flavonoids (TFC), and terpenoids (TTeC) contents were different among samples and the richest fractions in polyphenols demonstrated a higher antioxidant activity in in vitro assays. Some fractions showed a dose and time dependent anti-proliferative activity on MM cells. The chloroform fraction (CHCl 3 ) showed major effects in terms of reduction of cell viability, induction of apoptosis, and cell cycle arrest on MM cells. The apoptosis induction was also confirmed by the activation of caspase-3. Importantly, the CHCl 3 fraction exhibited a negligible effect on the viability of healthy cells. These results encourage further investigations on AG extracts to identify specific bioactive compounds and to define their potential applications in MM

Modelagem dinâmica do uso e cobertura das terras para o controle da erosão na bacia hidrográfica do Rio Mogi-Guaçú e Pardo – São Paulo – Brasil.

O objetivo deste artigo é a modelagem da dinâmica do uso e cobertura das terras na Bacia-Hidrográfica dos Rios Mogi-Guaçú e Pardo no Estado de São Paulo. Ele foca a restauração dos serviços ecossistêmicos do controle da erosão. São descritos e analisados a dinâmica do uso e cobertura das terras, focados nas suas principais forças direcionadoras, tais como a legislação ambiental do país e as mudanças nos preços relativos favorecendo uma forte expansão do cultivo da cana-de-açúcar na região. Esta dinâmica tem importante impacto nas taxas de erosão cujas medidas metodológicas são apresentadas com os resultados obtidos. Para simular esta dinâmica foi desenvolvido um modelo seguindo a metodologia do MIMES. O algoritmo desenvolvido modela as mudanças do uso e cobertura das terras baseado principalmente na força das leis ambientais. Espera-se que esta dinâmica contribua para a restauração dos serviços ecossistêmicos da Bacia Hidrográfica

The First Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey

The Sloan Digital Sky Survey has validated and made publicly available its First Data Release. This consists of 2099 square degrees of five-band (u, g, r, i, z) imaging data, 186,240 spectra of galaxies, quasars, stars and calibrating blank sky patches selected over 1360 square degrees of this area, and tables of measured parameters from these data. The imaging data go to a depth of r ~ 22.6 and are photometrically and astrometrically calibrated to 2% rms and 100 milli-arcsec rms per coordinate, respectively. The spectra cover the range 3800--9200 A, with a resolution of 1800--2100. Further characteristics of the data are described, as are the data products themselves.Comment: Submitted to The Astronomical Journal. 16 pages. For associated documentation, see http://www.sdss.org/dr

A multi-group epidemic model to represent the COVID-19 spread among regions: Analysis of the Italian case

We formulate and implement a dynamical multi-group model to describe the diffusion of COVID-19 epidemic within homogeneous sub-populations, structurally or geographically separated but interconnected by a mobility network. Each sub-model provides a rather accurate description of infective sub-populations. Control actions, representing the intervention measures adopted to curb the disease dynamics, are also included. The multi-group structure of the model is specifically designed to investigate the effects of people mobility. The case of three Italian areas is considered, for the period March-October 2020 including the massive increment in people mobility occurred in summertime. The results of model simulation are in good agreement with the data and can provide important informations about the contribution of outcome individuals to the virus spread