Quantifying and predicting success in show business

Recent studies in the science of success have shown that the highest-impact works of scientists or artists happen randomly and uniformly over the individual's career. Yet in certain artistic endeavours, such as acting in films and TV, having a job is perhaps the most important achievement: success is simply making a living. By analysing a large online database of information related to films and television we are able to study the success of those working in the entertainment industry. We first support our initial claim, finding that two in three actors are "one-hit wonders". In addition we find that, in agreement with previous works, activity is clustered in hot streaks, and the percentage of careers where individuals are active is unpredictable. However, we also discover that productivity in show business has a range of distinctive features, which are predictable. We unveil the presence of a rich-get-richer mechanism underlying the assignment of jobs, with a Zipf law emerging for total productivity. We find that productivity tends to be highest at the beginning of a career and that the location of the "annus mirabilis" -- the most productive year of an actor -- can indeed be predicted. Based on these stylized signatures we then develop a machine learning method which predicts, with up to 85% accuracy, whether the annus mirabilis of an actor has yet passed or if better days are still to come. Finally, our analysis is performed on both actors and actresses separately, and we reveal measurable and statistically significant differences between these two groups across different metrics, thereby providing compelling evidence of gender bias in show business.Comment: 6 Figure

[Accepted Manuscript] Left Main Revascularization With PCI or CABG in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease: EXCEL Trial.

The optimal revascularization strategy for patients with left main coronary artery disease (LMCAD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) remains unclear. This study investigated the comparative effectiveness of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) versus coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery in patients with LMCAD and low or intermediate anatomical complexity according to baseline renal function from the multicenter randomized EXCEL (Evaluation of XIENCE Versus Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery for Effectiveness of Left Main Revascularization) trial. CKD was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 using the CKD Epidemiology Collaboration equation. Acute renal failure (ARF) was defined as a serum creatinine increase ≥5.0 mg/dl from baseline or a new requirement for dialysis. The primary composite endpoint was the composite of death, myocardial infarction (MI), or stroke at 3-year follow-up. CKD was present in 361 of 1,869 randomized patients (19.3%) in whom baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate was available. Patients with CKD had higher 3-year rates of the primary endpoint compared with those without CKD (20.8% vs. 13.5%; hazard ratio [HR]: 1.60; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.22 to 2.09; p = 0.0005). ARF within 30 days occurred more commonly in patients with compared with those without CKD (5.0% vs. 0.8%; p < 0.0001), and was strongly associated with the 3-year risk of death, stroke, or MI (50.7% vs. 14.4%; HR: 4.59; 95% CI: 2.73 to 7.73; p < 0.0001). ARF occurred less commonly after revascularization with PCI compared with CABG both in patients with CKD (2.3% vs. 7.7%; HR: 0.28; 95% CI: 0.09 to 0.87) and in those without CKD (0.3% vs. 1.3%; HR: 0.20; 95% CI: 0.04 to 0.90; pinteraction = 0.71). There were no significant differences in the rates of the primary composite endpoint after PCI and CABG in patients with CKD (23.4% vs. 18.1%; HR: 1.25; 95% CI: 0.79 to 1.98) and without CKD (13.4% vs. 13.5%; HR: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.73 to 1.27; pinteraction = 0.38). Patients with CKD undergoing revascularization for LMCAD in the EXCEL trial had increased rates of ARF and reduced event-free survival. ARF occurred less frequently after PCI compared with CABG. There were no significant differences between PCI and CABG in terms of death, stroke, or MI at 3 years in patients with and without CKD. (EXCEL Clinical Trial [EXCEL]; NCT01205776)

Selection Mechanisms Underlying High Impact Biomedical Research - A Qualitative Analysis and Causal Model

BACKGROUND: Although scientific innovation has been a long-standing topic of interest for historians, philosophers and cognitive scientists, few studies in biomedical research have examined from researchers' perspectives how high impact publications are developed and why they are consistently produced by a small group of researchers. Our objective was therefore to interview a group of researchers with a track record of high impact publications to explore what mechanism they believe contribute to the generation of high impact publications. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Researchers were located in universities all over the globe and interviews were conducted by phone. All interviews were transcribed using standard qualitative methods. A Grounded Theory approach was used to code each transcript, later aggregating concept and categories into overarching explanation model. The model was then translated into a System Dynamics mathematical model to represent its structure and behavior. Five emerging themes were found in our study. First, researchers used heuristics or rules of thumb that came naturally to them. Second, these heuristics were reinforced by positive feedback from their peers and mentors. Third, good communication skills allowed researchers to provide feedback to their peers, thus closing a positive feedback loop. Fourth, researchers exhibited a number of psychological attributes such as curiosity or open-mindedness that constantly motivated them, even when faced with discouraging situations. Fifth, the system is dominated by randomness and serendipity and is far from a linear and predictable environment. Some researchers, however, took advantage of this randomness by incorporating mechanisms that would allow them to benefit from random findings. The aggregation of these themes into a policy model represented the overall expected behavior of publications and their impact achieved by high impact researchers. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed selection mechanism provides insights that can be translated into research coaching programs as well as research policy models to optimize the introduction of high impact research at a broad scale among institutional and governmental agencies

Intuition: Myth or a Decision-making Tool?

Faced with today’s ill-structured business environment of fast-paced change and rising uncertainty, organizations have been searching for management tools that will perform satisfactorily under such ambiguous conditions. In the arena of managerial decision making, one of the approaches being assessed is the use of intuition. Based on our definition of intuition as a non-sequential information-processing mode, which comprises both cognitive and affective elements and results in direct knowing without any use of conscious reasoning, we develop a testable model of integrated analytical and intuitive decision making and propose ways to measure the use of intuition

Towards a model of talent development in physical education

Traditional conceptions of talent generally emphasise the construction of threshold values and the development of relatively unitary abilities, and this approach still dominates talent development programmes for elite sport. Most researchers on high ability, however, now favour domain-specific, multidimensional conceptions of ability that stress the development of behavioural potential and its interaction with personal and environmental characteristics. This paper presents a model of talent in physical education, drawing together findings from a wide range of literature on the realisation and inhibition of abilities, international studies of effective school-based identification and provision strategies, and a conception of the subject as an integration and realisation of different forms of ability. In presenting this model, the authors aim to redress the imbalance within the current debate from an almost total concern with out-of-school clubs and the preparation for adult elite sport, in favour of a more equitable and inclusive approach, premised upon the unique importance of mainstream, curricular physical education within any talent development scheme

Gender and creativity: An overview of psychological and neuroscientific literature

The topic of gender differences in creativity is one that generates substantial scientific and public interest, but also courts considerable controversy. Owing to the heterogeneous nature of the findings associated with this line of research, the general picture often appears puzzling or obscure. This article presents a selective overview of psychological and neuroscientific literature that has a relevant bearing on the theme of gender and creativity. Topics that are explored include the definition and methods of assessing creativity, a summary of behavioral investigations on gender in relation to creativity, postulations that have been put forward to understand gender differences in creative achievement, gender-based differences in the structure and function of the brain, gender-related differences in behavioral performance on tasks of normative cognition, and neuroscientific studies of gender and creativity. The article ends with a detailed discussion of the idea that differences between men and women in creative cognition are best explained with reference to the gender-dependent adopted strategies or cognitive style when faced with generative tasks