Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Expert opinion on uncertainty distributions for pesticide risks to surface water organisms

A reliable characterisation of uncertainties can aid uncertainty identification during environmental risk assessments (ERAs). However, typologies can be implemented inconsistently, causing uncertainties to go unidentified. We present an approach based on nine structured elicitations, in which subject-matter experts, for pesticide risks to surface water organisms, validate and assess three dimensions of uncertainty: its level (the severity of uncertainty, ranging from determinism to ignorance); nature (whether the uncertainty is epistemic or aleatory); and location (the data source or area in which the uncertainty arises). Risk characterisation contains the highest median levels of uncertainty, associated with estimating, aggregating and evaluating the magnitude of risks. Regarding the locations in which uncertainty is manifest, data uncertainty is dominant in problem formulation, exposure assessment and effects assessment. The comprehensive description of uncertainty described will enable risk analysts to prioritise the required phases, groups of tasks, or individual tasks within a risk analysis according to the highest levels of uncertainty, the potential for uncertainty to be reduced or quantified, or the types of location-based uncertainty, thus aiding uncertainty prioritisation during environmental risk assessments. In turn, it is expected to inform investment in uncertainty reduction or targeted risk management action

Localization dynamics of fluids in random confinement

The dynamics of two-dimensional fluids confined within a random matrix of obstacles is investigated using both colloidal model experiments and molecular dynamics simulations. By varying fluid and matrix area fractions in the experiment, we find delocalized tracer particle dynamics at small matrix area fractions and localized motion of the tracers at high matrix area fractions. In the delocalized region, the dynamics is subdiffusive at intermediate times, and diffusive at long times, while in the localized regime, trapping in finite pockets of the matrix is observed. These observations are found to agree with the simulation of an ideal gas confined in a weakly correlated matrix. Our results show that Lorentz gas systems with soft interactions are exhibiting a smoothening of the critical dynamics and consequently a rounded delocalization-to-localization transition.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figure

The effect of yoga practice on glycemic control and other health parameters in the prediabetic state:A systematic review and meta-analysis

A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to investigate the effects of yoga on glycemic control, lipid profiles, body composition and blood pressure in people in the pre-diabetic state. Studies on the effectiveness of yoga on population groups under high risk for diabetes, called prediabetic or suffering from metabolic syndromes were extracted from a thorough search of PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane Library, EBSCO and IndMED databases. Both Randomised Controlled Trial (RCT) and non-RCT studies were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. Studies published between Jan 2002 and Dec 2018 were included. Studies were considered for evaluation if they investigated a yoga intervention to prevent T2DM, against a control group, while also reporting glycemic control and other health parameters of T2DM management. Summary effect sizes and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using the Comprehensive Meta-Analysis software in addition to publication bias. Of the 46,500 identified studies, 14 studies with 834 participants of whom were 50% women, were found to be eligible for inclusion in our systematic review. Our quantitative synthesis included 12 randomized control trials and 2 non-randomized control trials, with the follow-up period ranging from 4 to 52 weeks. Compared to controls, yoga intervention improved fasting blood glucose (FBG) [Standard Mean Difference (SMD -0.064 mg/dL (95% CI -0.201 to 0.074)]; low density lipoprotein (LDL) [SMD-0.090 mg/dL (95% CI -0.270 to 0.090)]; triglycerides [SMD -0.148 mg/dL (95% CI -0.285 to -0.012)]; total cholesterol [SMD -0.058 mg/dL (95% CI -0.220 to 0.104)] and systolic blood pressure [SMD -0.058 mm Hg (95% CI -0.168 to 0.053)]. This meta-analysis uncovered clinically improved effects of yoga intervention on glycemic control, lipid profiles and other parameters of T2DM management in prediabetic population. These results suggest that yoga intervention may be considered as a comprehensive and alternative approach to preventing T2DM. Further adequately powered, well designed RCTs are needed to support our findings and investigate the long-term effects of yoga in T2DM patients

Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Testing UnISERA, a guide for uncertainty assessment

A means for identifying and prioritising the treatment of uncertainty (UnISERA) in environmental risk assessments (ERAs) is tested, using three risk domains where ERA is an established requirement and one in which ERA practice is emerging. UnISERA's development draws on 19 expert elicitations across genetically modified higher plants, particulate matter, and agricultural pesticide release and is stress tested here for engineered nanomaterials (ENM). We are concerned with the severity of uncertainty; its nature; and its location across four accepted stages of ERAs. Using an established uncertainty scale, the risk characterisation stage of ERA harbours the highest severity level of uncertainty, associated with estimating, aggregating and evaluating expressions of risk. Combined epistemic and aleatory uncertainty is the dominant nature of uncertainty. The dominant location of uncertainty is associated with data in problem formulation, exposure assessment and effects assessment. Testing UnISERA produced agreements of 55%, 90%, and 80% for the severity level, nature and location dimensions of uncertainty between the combined case studies and the ENM stress test. UnISERA enables environmental risk analysts to prioritise risk assessment phases, groups of tasks, or individual ERA tasks and it can direct them towards established methods for uncertainty treatment

On AdS4_4 deformations of celestial symmetries

Celestial holography has led to the discovery of new symmetry algebras arising from the study of collinear limits of perturbative gravity amplitudes in flat space. We explain from the twistor perspective how a non-vanishing cosmological constant $\Lambda$ naturally modifies the celestial chiral algebra. The cosmological constant deforms the Poisson bracket on twistor space, so the corresponding deformed algebra of Hamiltonians under the new bracket is automatically consistent. This algebra is equivalent to that recently found by Taylor and Zhu. We find a number of variations of the deformed algebra. We give the Noether charges arising from the expression of this algebra as a symmetry of the twistor action for self-dual gravity with cosmological constant.Comment: 13 page

Past carbonate preservation events in the deep Southeast Atlantic Ocean (Cape Basin) and their implications for Atlantic overturning dynamics and marine carbon cycling

Micropaleontological and geochemical analyses reveal distinct millennial-scale increases in carbonate preservation in the deep Southeast Atlantic (Cape Basin) during strong and prolonged Greenland interstadials that are superimposed on long-term (orbital-scale) changes in carbonate burial. These data suggest carbonate oversaturation of the deep Atlantic and a strengthened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the most intense Greenland interstadials. However, proxy evidence from outside the Cape Basin indicate that AMOC changes also occurred during weaker and shorter Greenland interstadials. Here we revisit the link between AMOC dynamics and carbonate saturation in the deep Cape Basin over the last 400 kyr (sediment cores TN057-21, TN057-10 and ODP Site 1089) by reconstructing centennial changes in carbonate preservation using mm-scale X-ray fluorescence (XRF) scanning data. We observe close agreement between variations in XRF Ca/Ti, sedimentary carbonate content and foraminiferal shell fragmentation, reflecting a common control primarily through changing deep-water carbonate saturation. We suggest that the high-frequency (sub-orbital) component of the XRF Ca/Ti records indicates the fast and recurrent redistribution of carbonate ions in the Atlantic basin via the AMOC during both long/strong- and short/weak North Atlantic climate anomalies. In contrast, the low- frequency (orbital) XRF Ca/Ti component is interpreted to reflect slow adjustments through carbonate compensation, and/or changes in the deep-ocean respired carbon content. Our findings emphasize the recurrent influence of rapid AMOC variations on the marine carbonate system during past glacial periods, providing a mechanism for transferring the impacts of North Atlantic climate anomalies to the global carbon cycle via the Southern Ocean.J.G. acknowledges support from the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant 200021_163003), the German Research Foundation (grant GO 2294/2-1) and the Gates Cambridge Trust. L.C.S. acknowledges the Royal Society, the Cambridge Isaac Newton Trust and NERC grant NE/J010545/1. S.L.J was funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (grants PP00P2-144811 and PP002_172915)

On AdS 4 deformations of celestial symmetries

Celestial holography has led to the discovery of new symmetry algebras arising from the study of collinear limits of perturbative gravity amplitudes in flat space. We explain from the twistor perspective how a non-vanishing cosmological constant Λ naturally modifies the celestial chiral algebra. The cosmological constant deforms the Poisson bracket on twistor space, so the corresponding deformed algebra of Hamiltonians under the new bracket is automatically consistent. This algebra is equivalent to that recently found by Taylor and Zhu. We find a number of variations of the deformed algebra. We give the Noether charges arising from the expression of this algebra as a symmetry of the twistor action for self-dual gravity with cosmological constant

Seasonal patterns of oral antihistamine and intranasal corticosteroid purchases from Australian community pharmacies : a retrospective observational study

Acknowledgments The abstract of this paper was presented at the Respiratory Effectiveness Group 2016 Annual Summit as a poster presentation with interim findings. The poster’s abstract was published in “Poster Abstracts” in The Journal of Thoracic Disease (Vol. 8, Supplement 5, 5 July 2016). http://jtd.amegroups.com/article/view/8504.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

A tooth crown morphology framework for interpreting the diversity of primate dentitions

Variation in tooth crown morphology plays a crucial role in species diagnoses, phylogenetic inference, and the reconstruction of the evolutionary history of the primate clade. While a growing number of studies have identified developmental mechanisms linked to tooth size and cusp patterning in mammalian crown morphology, it is unclear (1) to what degree these are applicable across primates and (2) which additional developmental mechanisms should be recognized as playing important roles in odontogenesis. From detailed observations of lower molar enamel–dentine junction morphology from taxa representing the major primate clades, we outline multiple phylogenetic and developmental components responsible for crown patterning, and formulate a tooth crown morphology framework for the holistic interpretation of primate crown morphology. We suggest that adopting this framework is crucial for the characterization of tooth morphology in studies of dental development, discrete trait analysis, and systematics