Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests

Structurally intact tropical forests sequestered about half of the global terrestrial carbon uptake over the 1990s and early 2000s, removing about 15 percent of 1–3 anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. Climate-driven vegetation models 4,5 typically predict that this tropical forest ‘carbon sink’ will continue for decades . Here we assess trends in the carbon sink using 244 structurally intact African tropical forests spanning 11 countries, compare them with 321 published plots from Amazonia and investigate the underlying drivers of the trends. The carbon sink in live aboveground biomass in intact African tropical forests has been stable for the three decades to 2015, at 0.66 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year (95 percent confidence 6 interval0.53–0.79), in contrast to the long-term decline in Amazonian forests. Therefore the carbon sink responses of Earth’s two largest expanses of tropical forest have diverged. The difference is largely driven by carbon losses from tree mortality, with no detectable multi-decadal trend in Africa and a long-term increase in Amazonia. Both continents show increasing tree growth, consistent with the expected 7–9 net effect of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperature. Despite the past stability of the African carbon sink, our most intensively monitored plots suggest a post-2010 increase in carbon losses, delayed compared to Amazonia, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation on the two continents. A statistical model including carbon dioxide, temperature, drought, and forest dynamics accounts for the observed trends and indicates a long-term future decline in the African sink, whereas the Amazonian sink continues to weaken rapidly. Overall, the uptake of carbon into Earth’s intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Given that the global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing in size, independent observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern Hemisphere landmass10 reinforce our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already peaked. This saturation and ongoing decline of the tropical forest carbon sink has consequences for policies intended to stabilize Earth’s climate

Principles of forensic group therapy

Long-term monitoring of distributed, multiple plots is the key to quantify macroecological patterns and changes. Here we examine the evidence for concerted changes in the structure, dynamics and composition of old-growth Amazonian forests in the late twentieth century. In the 1980s and 1990s, mature forests gained biomass and underwent accelerated growth and dynamics, all consistent with a widespread, long-acting stimulation of growth. Because growth on average exceeded mortality, intact Amazonian forests have been a carbon sink. In the late twentieth century, biomass of trees of more than 10cm diameter increased by 0.62±0.23 t C ha-1yr-1 averaged across the basin. This implies a carbon sink in Neotropical old-growth forest of at least 0.49±0.18 Pg C yr-1. If other biomass and necromass components are also increased proportionally, then the old-growth forest sink here has been 0.79±0.29 Pg C yr-1, even before allowing for any gains in soil carbon stocks. This is approximately equal to the carbon emissions to the atmosphere by Amazon deforestation. There is also evidence for recent changes in Amazon biodiversity. In the future, the growth response of remaining old-growth mature Amazon forests will saturate, and these ecosystems may switch from sink to source driven by higher respiration (temperature), higher mortality (as outputs equilibrate to the growth inputs and periodic drought) or compositional change (disturbances). Any switch from carbon sink to source would have profound implications for global climate, biodiversity and human welfare, while the documented acceleration of tree growth and mortality may already be affecting the interactions among millions of species. © 2008 The Royal Society

Methods for exomoon characterisation: combining transit photometry and the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect

It has been suggested that moons around transiting exoplanets may cause observable signal in transit photometry or in the Rossiter-McLaughlin (RM) effect. In this paper a detailed analysis of parameter reconstruction from the RM effect is presented for various planet-moon configurations, described with 20 parameters. We also demonstrate the benefits of combining photometry with the RM effect. We simulated 2.7x10^9 configurations of a generic transiting system to map the confidence region of the parameters of the moon, find the correlated parameters and determine the validity of reconstructions. The main conclusion is that the strictest constraints from the RM effect are expected for the radius of the moon. In some cases there is also meaningful information on its orbital period. When the transit time of the moon is exactly known, for example, from transit photometry, the angle parameters of the moon's orbit will also be constrained from the RM effect. From transit light curves the mass can be determined, and combining this result with the radius from the RM effect, the experimental determination of the density of the moon is also possible.Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Origin of the transient unpulsed radio emission from the PSR B1259-63 binary system

We discuss the interpretation of transient, unpulsed radio emission detected from the unique pulsar/Be-star binary system PSR B1259-63. Extensive monitoring of the 1994 and 1997 periastron passages has shown that the source flares over a 100-day interval around periastron, varying on time-scales as short as a day and peaking at 60 mJy (~100 times the apastron flux density) at 1.4 GHz. Interpreting the emission as synchrotron radiation, we show that (i) the observed variations in flux density are too large to be caused by the shock interaction between the pulsar wind and an isotropic, radiatively driven, Be-star wind, and (ii) the radio emitting electrons do not originate from the pulsar wind. We argue instead that the radio electrons originate from the circumstellar disk of the Be star and are accelerated at two epochs, one before and one after periastron, when the pulsar passes through the disk. A simple model incorporating two epochs of impulsive acceleration followed by synchrotron cooling reproduces the essential features of the radio light curve and spectrum and is consistent with the system geometry inferred from pulsed radio data.Comment: To be published in Astrophysical Journal Letters 7 pages, 1 postscript figur

Snowmass Early Career: The Key Initiatives Organization

In April 2020, the 2019 and 2020 American Physical Society's Division of Particles and Fields (APS DPF) Early Career Executive Committee (ECEC) members were tasked with organizing the formation of a representative body for High-Energy Physics (HEP) early career members for the Snowmass process by the DPF Executive Committee. Here, we outline the structure we developed and the process we followed to help provide context and guidance for future early career Snowmass efforts. Our organization was composed of a cross-frontier branch with committees on Inreach, Diversity Equity and Inclusion, Survey, and Long Term Organizational Planning; in addition to the Frontier Coordination branch, formed by committees responsible for liaising with each Frontier. Throughout this document, the authors reflect on the triumphs and pitfalls of a program created from nothing over a very short period of time, by people with good intentions, who had no prior experience in building such an organization. Through this exercise of reflecting, we sometimes find that we would recommend a different path to our future selves. Insomuch as there are things to find fault with, it is in the robustness of the systems we built and refined.Comment: contribution to Snowmass 2021, 16 pages, 0 figure

Fluid/solid transition in a hard-core system

We prove that a system of particles in the plane, interacting only with a certain hard-core constraint, undergoes a fluid/solid phase transition