On a Rare Visit to Texas

<p>Species' sensitivity scores are calculated as their niche breadth*reliance, with higher values indicating species less sensitive to changes in resource abundance or availability. Equivalent, PECBMS-only <i>BREAKPOINT</i> sets for the forest type and region indicators are presented in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0097217#pone.0097217.s014" target="_blank">Table S7</a>. ‘0/1’ identifies species that were interchangeable in any given breakpoint set due to equal sensitivity scores – see specific note for each indicator for further details.</p><p><i>*Species also included in current pan-European forest bird indicator (for full list see</i><a href="http://www.ebcc.info/index.php?ID=459" target="_blank">http://www.ebcc.info/index.php?ID=459</a>).</p>a<p>Either species could be included.</p>b<p>Any one of three could be included.</p>c<p>Any two of three could be included.</p

Relationship between the number of species in the indicator and the average sensitivity score of constituent species in the most sensitive combination for that set size for the pan-European and alternative indicators drawn from all possible species.

<p>Average sensitivity scores calculated as average of niche breadth*reliance across constituent species, with higher scores associated with less sensitive indicators. See <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0097217#pone.0097217.s001" target="_blank">Figure S1</a> for the equivalent figure for pan-European and alternative indicators drawn only from species currently covered by PECBMS.</p

Overview structure of SpecSel, the species' selection algorithm, outlining the process to identify the optimal indicator set for each set size.

<p>SpecSel has been implemented in Java and the program, including detailed coding for the search tree component, can be freely downloaded from <a href="https://www.uea.ac.uk/computing/specsel" target="_blank">https://www.uea.ac.uk/computing/specsel</a>.</p

Summary of comparisons between the temporal dynamics of alternative index sets (<i>MINIMAL</i>, <i>BREAKPOINT</i>, <i>SENSITIVE</i> and, for the pan-European and regional indicators, existing indicator sets <i>CURRENT</i>) for each indicator type and that of an index based on the population dynamics of all species in the candidate pool from which the sets had been drawn (<i>COMMUNITY</i>).

<p>Data presented are the slope (95% confidence interval) and correlation coefficient <i>r</i> of the relationship between the inter-annual changes of <i>COMMUNITY</i> and each alternative indicator set, derived using Type II major axis regression. Slope values less than one reflect greater inter-annual changes in the specific indicator relative to that of <i>COMMUNITY</i>. The 2011 index value for each alternative indicator is also shown. *P<0.05; **P<0.01; ***P<0.001; <i>ns</i> – not significant.</p>a<p>Calculated from the geometric mean of constituent species' population change between 1980 (1982 for East and 1989 for South) and 2011 <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0097217#pone.0097217-Gregory3" target="_blank">[13]</a>.</p

Temporal dynamics of pan-European woodland bird indicator, drawn from species currently covered by PECBMS, between 1980 and 2011.

<p>Lines show index values, based on the geometric mean of constituent species' population trends, for <i>MINIMAL</i>, <i>BREAKPOINT</i>, <i>SENSITIVE</i>, the existing pan-European woodland bird index (<i>CURRENT</i>) and <i>COMMUNITY</i> sets. Equivalent figures for the regional and woodland type indicators are provided in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0097217#pone.0097217.s002" target="_blank">Figures S2</a>, <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0097217#pone.0097217.s003" target="_blank">S3</a>, <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0097217#pone.0097217.s004" target="_blank">S4</a>, <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0097217#pone.0097217.s005" target="_blank">S5</a>, <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0097217#pone.0097217.s006" target="_blank">S6</a>, <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0097217#pone.0097217.s007" target="_blank">S7</a>.</p

Sensitivity analyses showing the percentage of variation in the mean habitat suitability value (index), Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r) and the percentage of presence/occurrence predictions that change (prediction) at the scale of monitored transects according to changes in vegetation height, diet preferences and degree of intensification scores with respect to original values.

<p>Positive and negative values for changes in habitat suitability index indicate the direction of the change (increase vs. decrease).</p

Habitat suitability for Stone Curlew, Calandra Lark and male Little Bustard in the study area derived from current landscapes and from the loss of 30%, 50% and 100% of current fallow land in the study area.

<p>Predicted a) habitat suitability, b) percentage of habitat suitability change and c) proportion of transects predicted as presences. Predictions from sufficiently robust (AUC >0.6) habitat-based models and resource-based models are shown for each species and scenario.</p

Study area.

<p>(a) Location of the study area and (b) distribution of monitored transects (represented by dots) during years 2010–2011 in the study area. In grey, areas included in the Natura 2000 network.</p

Model performance of habitat-based and resource-based models for predicting the occurrence of four steppe bird species in the study area.

<p>For habitat-based models, model performance according to predictions obtained using cross-validation is shown. For resource-based models, model performance of resource-based suitability estimates for the whole breeding season and for different windows of time across bird surveys (in parenthesis) are shown. The threshold that maximizes the sum of sensitivity plus specificity is also given. RP = Red-legged Partridge, SC = Stone Curlew, CL = Calandra Lark, LB = male Little Bustard. N  = 145.</p

Habitat suitability estimates according to different key ecological requirements of four steppe bird species throughout the breeding season in the study area.

<p>Monthly total habitat suitability estimates were obtained as the geometric average of nesting- and foraging-related suitability estimates for months when the species is nesting and equal to foraging-related suitability estimates for months when the species is not nesting. The nesting period was bounded between April and June for Calandra Lark and Red-legged Partridge and between April and July for Stone Curlew. For male Little Bustards, no nesting period was considered since only females take part in nesting.</p